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AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

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Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#31

Post by RhysU »

dgb23 wrote: post #22

> For a good 12 hours, over the course of 1 1/2 days, I tried to prompt it such that it yields what we needed. Eventually, I noticed that my prompts converged more and more to be almost the code I wanted. After still not getting a working result, I ended up implementing it myself in less than 30 minutes. This is very common. We need a name for this phenomenon. Any analogies/metaphors? I generated (huh!) some suggesti…

> We need a name for this phenomenon.

There's a classical one: Sunk cost fallacy

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#32

Post by rvnx »

rednafi wrote: post #28
rvnx wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be that some people are not familiar with the limitations of LLMs and what to expect from them, and could benefit from learning how to properly do prompting, before outright rejecting them. The LLMs are sometimes frustrating, but over time you learn how to drive them properly, exactly like when you learn how to use the right keywords on Google. Also, considering he is a free user, the author might be using one…

> Also, considering he is a free user, the author might be using one the default models ("auto" -> o4-mini or gpt-4o, rarely Claude Sonnet/Opus 3) in Cursor I wonder where you got the free user info.

Possibly, though the context strongly suggests someone discovering Cursor. It's also possible that someone shared their account with him and that could explain the "30-minute thinking time" (the free slow requests).

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#33

Post by queenkjuul »

Flemlo wrote: post #20
29athrowaway wrote: post #2

No, we are not. Pretrained models do not learn from their prompts. Their state is volatile.

We do the same thing. We have long term memory and short term. Context is short term. The still long and expensive training phase embeds the long term memory.

What we do may be analogous but absolutely not the same

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#34

Post by mrweasel »

Flemlo wrote: post #18

Don't compare Bitcoin and the Meta verse with ai. Millions of people use LLMs daily. Veo 3 just came out. People get fired due to LLMs and GenAI replacing them. Google uses ai code for years in the background. Playing around with cursor for a few days is way to naive to be able to determine the current situation with coding and ai

> People get fired due to LLMs and GenAI replacing them.

Serious question: Are they? Or are they being fired and AI is used at the excuse?

We saw Klarna layoff customer services staff and that didn't work. LLMs couldn't do their job. Some programmers are being fired, but my feeling is that generative AI is more of a convenient excuse.

Is anyone actually being fired because an LLM did their job better, or where their job already in danger and AI just gave the companies an easy way out?

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#35

Post by cm277 »

mrweasel wrote: post #16

That's pretty much my take. LLMs aren't a bad idea, they are useful, in certain fields, but they aren't living up to the sales pitch and they are to expensive to run. My personal take is that the whole chat based interface is a mistake. I have no better solution, but for anything beyond a halluciating search engine, it's not really the way we need to interact with AI. In my mind we're 6 months away from one of the bi…

Agreed. Text is used for a lot of things. A fantastic text parser/generator that doesn't need regex and can extract /meaning/ would have been a sci-fi fever dream even a decade ago. So, LLMs will definitely have their use and will probably disrupt several industries.

But this hype-storm just reminds me of the fever-dream blogs about the brave new world of the Internet back when hypertext became widely used in '93 or so (direct democracy, infinite commerce, etc, etc). Yes, of course, the brave new world came along, but it needed 3G and multi-touch screens as well and that was 15 years later and a whole different set of companies made money and ruled the world than those that bet on hypertext.

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#36

Post by Chinjut »

rvnx wrote: post #24
dgb23 wrote: post #22

> For a good 12 hours, over the course of 1 1/2 days, I tried to prompt it such that it yields what we needed. Eventually, I noticed that my prompts converged more and more to be almost the code I wanted. After still not getting a working result, I ended up implementing it myself in less than 30 minutes. This is very common. We need a name for this phenomenon. Any analogies/metaphors? I generated (huh!) some suggesti…

Could be that some people are not familiar with the limitations of LLMs and what to expect from them, and could benefit from learning how to properly do prompting, before outright rejecting them. The LLMs are sometimes frustrating, but over time you learn how to drive them properly, exactly like when you learn how to use the right keywords on Google. Also, considering he is a free user, the author might be using one…

Just use the right prompt. Just use the right model. Just roll the dice correctly.

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#37

Post by Flemlo »

queenkjuul wrote: post #33
Flemlo wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do the same thing. We have long term memory and short term. Context is short term. The still long and expensive training phase embeds the long term memory.

What we do may be analogous but absolutely not the same

Yes if course after all ML and LLM are not made out of brain.

But do I really have to say colloquial?

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#38

Post by Flemlo »

mrweasel wrote: post #29
Flemlo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI hype also made voice to text and text to voice a lot better. It's not just chat. But I really enjoy the Claude or chatgpt chat UI. I'm not sure what your problem with that UI is tbh? I don't think there will be any crash soon. I'm hoping for lower prices but I can't imagine not having these tools available anymore. I'm also waiting for better and cheaper support for local development and inferencing. I'm waiti…

> I'm not sure what your problem with that UI is tbh? It's not a particularly efficient way to interact with the LLMs. Despite how people hate AI being integrated into everything, I do think that's the only way it can be done effectively. My take is that the AI/LLM isn't the product, it's just a feature of a product. Like when there's "AI" in the camera apps on your phone, or some sort of machine learning in medical…

The generic chat agent is for me absolutely a product.

The personal assistant agent too.

They might overlap for me but not for everyone.

Nothing will crash. The big rich companies like Google, Microsoft already need it as part of their product strategy.

But about ai companies, I don't think their faith matters at all to end consumer and I'm pretty sure companies like character.ai do not run red numbers.

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#39

Post by Izkata »

dgb23 wrote: post #22

> For a good 12 hours, over the course of 1 1/2 days, I tried to prompt it such that it yields what we needed. Eventually, I noticed that my prompts converged more and more to be almost the code I wanted. After still not getting a working result, I ended up implementing it myself in less than 30 minutes. This is very common. We need a name for this phenomenon. Any analogies/metaphors? I generated (huh!) some suggesti…

Based on social media's "doomscrolling", how about "doom prompting"?

Re: AI-first – We're just 6 months away from AGI

#40

Post by dgb23 »

Izkata wrote: post #39
dgb23 wrote: post #22

> For a good 12 hours, over the course of 1 1/2 days, I tried to prompt it such that it yields what we needed. Eventually, I noticed that my prompts converged more and more to be almost the code I wanted. After still not getting a working result, I ended up implementing it myself in less than 30 minutes. This is very common. We need a name for this phenomenon. Any analogies/metaphors? I generated (huh!) some suggesti…

Based on social media's "doomscrolling", how about "doom prompting"?

I like "doom prompting", it feels exactly like that!

One effective use of these tools is to get past the blank page dread. Let it write _something_ to get going, then turn it off and start working.

Recognizing where this cutoff should be can prevent "doom prompting"!

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