1. From 2010 - 2023(ish), Google slept on DeepMind and allowed OpenAI to steal the narrative. That led to a boom in AI development outside of the Google labs. This is akin to Microsoft's loss of internet/web. A half dozen trillion dollar companies emerged from Microsoft's stumbling, and we're likely to see the same with Google's missteps.
2. After the rise of so many AI startups in the 2020 - 2023 period, the end of Google was being forecast by many. Most of Google's revenue comes through search, and everyone (Nadella, Altman, investors, et al.) were talking about the incremental value of search - Google had to retain 100%, and other players just had to grow.
3. The Google founders, sensing a major blow to their cash cow, took a break from their zeppelin startups and came back. They gave Deep Mind more autonomy, took a knife to product culture, and empowered and encouraged everyone to innovate. The whole company has been re-focused and told they must win AI or face extinction.
4. As of 2025, Google has been killing it on their releases. Gemini, Veo, ... you name it, and they've got industry-leading developments that out-perform and undercut the competition. It's beginning to look like not only will Google not die, but that Google could wipe the field with their AI superiority. It looks like they'll be able to dance circles around OpenAI.
The looming threats are (1) DOJ antitrust eroding Google search ingress and (2) other players stealing Search TAM without the new AI markets being able to replace the search / ads revenue.
Any non-Google players would be wise to put antitrust pressure on Google. Even after the current case ends, they should try to strip away defaults on web and mobile. Stop Google from being able to deploy AI through Google Search, Android, and Chrome. Make Google use the same word of mouth marketing that the rest have to.
It'll be an exciting series of battles ahead.