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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

cnn.com

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#91

Post by SoftTalker »

michaeldoron wrote: post #78

Every time an analyst gives the current state of AI-based tools as evidence supporting AI disruption being just a hype, I think of skeptics who dismissed the exponential growth of covid19 cases due to their initial low numbers. Putting that aside, how is this article called an analysis and not an opinion piece? The only analysis done here is asking a labor economist what conditions would allow this claim to hold, and…

Analysis == Opinion when it comes to mainstream news reporting. It's one guy's thinking on something.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#92

Post by JKCalhoun »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #22
darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

> If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? All the people employed by the government and blue collar workers? All the entrepreneurs, gig workers, black market workers, etc? It's easy to imagine a world in which there are way less white collar workers and everything else is pretty much the same. It's also easy to imagine a world in which you sell less stuff but your margins increase, and overall you're bett…

> All the people employed by the government and blue collar workers?

You forgot the born-wealthy.

I feel increasingly like a rube for having not made my little entrepreneurial side-gigs focused strictly on the ultra-wealthy. I used to sell tube amplifier kits, for example, so you and I could have a really high-end audio experience with a very modest outlay of cash (maybe $300). Instead I should have sold the same amps but completed for $10K. (There is no upper bounds for audio equipment though — I guess we all know.)

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#93

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

Imagine you had a crystal ball that lets you look 10 years into the future, and you asked it about whether we underestimate or overestimate how many jobs AI will replace in the future.

It flickers for a moment, then it either says

"In 2025, mankind vastly underestimated the amount of jobs AI can do in 2035"

or

"In 2025, mankind vastly overestimated the amount of jobs AI can do in 2035"

How would you use that information to invest in the stock market?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#94

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

michaeldoron wrote: post #78

Every time an analyst gives the current state of AI-based tools as evidence supporting AI disruption being just a hype, I think of skeptics who dismissed the exponential growth of covid19 cases due to their initial low numbers. Putting that aside, how is this article called an analysis and not an opinion piece? The only analysis done here is asking a labor economist what conditions would allow this claim to hold, and…

I'm not seeing how comparing AI to a virus that killed millions and left tens of millions crippled is an effective way to support your argument.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#95

Post by bckr »

thmsths wrote: post #18
darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

Tragedy of the commons: no one being able to buy stuff is a problem for everyone, but being able to save just a bit more by getting rid of your workforce is a huge advantage for your business.

“tragedy of the commons” is treated as a Theory of Human Nature when it’s really a religious principle underlying how we operate our society.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#96

Post by aaronbaugher »

michaeldoron wrote: post #78

Every time an analyst gives the current state of AI-based tools as evidence supporting AI disruption being just a hype, I think of skeptics who dismissed the exponential growth of covid19 cases due to their initial low numbers. Putting that aside, how is this article called an analysis and not an opinion piece? The only analysis done here is asking a labor economist what conditions would allow this claim to hold, and…

> Is this really the level of analysis CNN has to offer on this topic?

Not just this topic.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#97

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

Business leaders in AI are _not_ excited and agree with your concerns. That's what the source article is about - the CEO of AI lab Anthropic said he sees major social problems coming soon. The problem is that the information environment is twisted in knots. The author, like many commentators, characterizes your concerns as "optimism" and "hype", because she doesn't think AI will actually have these large impacts.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#98

Post by phendrenad2 »

idkwhattocallme wrote: post #23

I worked at two different $10B+ market cap companies during ZIRP. I recall in most meetings over half of the knowledge workers attending were superfluous. I mean, we hired someone on my team to attend cross functional meetings because our calendars were literally too full to attend. Why could we do that? Because the company was growing and hiring someone to attend meetings wasn't going to hurt the skyrocketing stock.…

To the contrary - they were providing value to the VP who benefitted from inflated headcount. That's "real value", it's just a rogue agent is misaligned with the company's goals.

And AI cannot provide that kind of value. Will a VP in charge of 100 AI agents be respected as much as a VP in charge of 100 employees?

At the end of the day, we're all just monkeys throwing bones in the air in front of a monolith we constructed. But we're not going to stop throwing bones in the air!

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#99

Post by JKCalhoun »

darth_avocado wrote: post #51
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? All the people employed by the government and blue collar workers? All the entrepreneurs, gig workers, black market workers, etc? It's easy to imagine a world in which there are way less white collar workers and everything else is pretty much the same. It's also easy to imagine a world in which you sell less stuff but your margins increase, and overall you're bett…

> All the people employed by the government and blue collar workers If people don’t have jobs, government doesn’t have taxes to employ other people. If CEOs are salivating at the thought of replacing white collar workers, there is no reason to think next step of AI augmented with robotics won’t replace blue collar workers as well.

Yeah, it's as though "middle class" was a brief miracle of our age. Serfs and nobility is the more probably human condition.

Hey, is there a good board game in there somewhere? Serfs and Nobles™

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#100

Post by JKCalhoun »

untrust wrote: post #52
darth_avocado wrote: post #8

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

Another question: If AI is going to eat up everyone's jobs, how will any business be safe from a new competitor showing up and unseating them off their throne? I don't think that the low level peons would be the only ones at stake as a company could be easily outcompeted as well since AI could conceivably outperform or replace any existing product anyways. I guess funding for processing power and physical machinery t…

The beginning of the AI Wars?
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