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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#21

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

You ever thought there’s more to life than work lol. Maybe humans can approach a new standard of living…

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#22

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

> If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff?

All the people employed by the government and blue collar workers? All the entrepreneurs, gig workers, black market workers, etc?

It's easy to imagine a world in which there are way less white collar workers and everything else is pretty much the same.

It's also easy to imagine a world in which you sell less stuff but your margins increase, and overall you're better off, even if everybody else has less widgets.

It's also easy to imagine a world in which you're able to cut more workers than everyone else, and on aggregate, barely anyone is impacted, but your margins go up.

There's tons of other scenarios, including the most cited one - that technology thus far has always led to more jobs, not less.

They're probably believing any combination of these concepts.

It's not guaranteed that if there's 5% less white-collar workers per year for a few decades that we're all going to starve to death.

In the future, if trends continue, there's going to be way less workers - since there's going to be a huge portion of the population that's old and retired.

You can lose x% of the work force every year and keep unemployment stable...

A large portion of the population wants a lot more people to be able to not work and get entitlements...

It's pretty easy to see how a lot of people can think this could lead to something good, even if you think all those things are bad.

Two people can see the same painting in a museum, one finds it beautiful, and the other finds it completely uninteresting.

It's almost like asking - how can someone want the Red team to win when I want the Blue team to win?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#23
I worked at two different $10B+ market cap companies during ZIRP. I recall in most meetings over half of the knowledge workers attending were superfluous. I mean, we hired someone on my team to attend cross functional meetings because our calendars were literally too full to attend. Why could we do that? Because the company was growing and hiring someone to attend meetings wasn't going to hurt the skyrocketing stock. Plus hiring someone gave my VP more headcount and therefore more clout. The market only valued company growth, not efficiency. But the market always capitulates to value (over time). When that happens all those overlay hires will get axed. Both companies have since laid off 10K+. AI was the scapegoat. But really, a lot of the knowledge worker jobs it "replaces" weren't providing real value anyway.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#24

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

I guess the idea is that the people left working will be made so productive and wealthy thanks to the miracle of AI that they can more than make up the difference with extravagant consumption.

I too plan to buy 100.000 liters of yogurt each day once AI has transported me into the socioeconomic strata of the 0.1%

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#25

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

Game theory/Nash equilibrium/Prisoner's Dilemma, and the turkey's perspective in the problem of induction.

So far, for any given automation, each actor gets to cut their own costs to their benefit — and if they do this smarter than anyone else, they win the market for a bit.

Every day the turkey lives, they get a bit more evidence the farmer is an endless source of free food that only wants the best for them.

It's easy to fool oneself that the economics are eternal with reference to e.g. Jevons paradox.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#26

What AI is going to wipe out is white collar jobs where people sleepwalk through the working day and carelessly half ass every task. In 2025, we can get LLMs to do that for us. Unfortunately, the kind of executive who thinks AI is a legitimate replacement for actual work does not recognize the difference. I expect to see the more credulous CEOs dynamiting their companies as a result. Whether the rest of us can surviv…

Yea

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#27

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

You ever thought there’s more to life than work lol. Maybe humans can approach a new standard of living…

Excellent choice of words there: new standard.

I'm sure we are, but it doesn't look like an improvement for most people.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#28

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

You're being confused by the numbers. We aren't trying to maximise consumer spending, the point is to maximise living standards. If the market equilibrium price of all goods was $0 consumer spending would be $0 and living standards would be off the charts. It'd be a great outcome.

It just happens that up to this point there have been things that couldn't be done by capital. Now we're entering a world where there isn't such a thing and it is unclear what that implies for the job market. But people not having jobs is hardly a bad thing as long as it isn't forced by stupid policy, ideally nobody has to work.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#29

I don’t understand how any business leader can be excited about humans being replaced by AI. If no one has a job, who’s going to buy your stuff? When the unemployment in the country goes up, consumer spending slows down and recession kicks in. How could you be excited for that?

I guess the idea is that the people left working will be made so productive and wealthy thanks to the miracle of AI that they can more than make up the difference with extravagant consumption.

If you want to see what that looks like, just look at the economy of India. Do we really want that?
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