The Good News is that He is en route; the other news is that His driver is named Godot.
The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
511–520 of 649 posts
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#512Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm genuinely curious. What would that be? Judging by their creeds it's believing that Easter really happened, and that the highest being is a composition that must be explained in hard to understand greek ontological terms.
Honestly, it would be weird if a supream being DIDN'T have to be explained in difficult to understand, abstract terms. Heck, look at medicine, human's are explained using difficult to understand Greek terms.
That is true.
The point I wanted to make however was rather that ontology moved on. The creed stayed the same.
Medicine is still complex, but moved on a bit since the good old days of the four humors.
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#513Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t think anything is weird anymore. The ultimate reality of free will is that you will always have the option to do right and wrong. If you don’t have faith, this privilege will be difficult. The human left to their own devices will always have a shifting sense of morality (turning a ship by 1 degree at a time). Faith was a gift to help. In terms of Christ, let me put it this way. Imagine your high school, and o…
free will is one big reason why god would not reveal himself in a universal fashion. free will includes the freedom to reject god. if god were to reveal himself openly then the freedom to reject him would not exist. we would not have a choice but to believe.
That's not a reason. That's an excuse for why the vigorous handwaving of the religious is insufficient. We have people who are catching measles because they don't believe in measles vaccines, like right freaking now even though we know that the vaccines are safe, effective, and work. Every dimwit who is against their children getting those vaccines was once a child whose parents were intelligent enough to get the vaccinations for them.
So no, try again, because that argument is silly.
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#514Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening. The most interesting part of the article IMO was the fact that the 3% probability is artificially high because there is no one willing to take the otherside of the bet, because betting "No" requires you to give your money to the prediction market for 6+ months, and if you're only getting a 1% return if you w…
> This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening. I'm well aware that people believe that these markets are accurate estimators of probability of events, but I've (as a life long gambler) always viewed it as a measure of people's confidence in an event happening at a particular probability. People are wrong/delusional at scale all the time (think of the m…
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#515Earlier quoted context omitted.
The large majority of Christians do not believe in any sort of 'Rapture'.
Well of course - those heretics were descended from those excommunicated in the 1500s.
Most Protestants don't believe in the Rapture either. It's a doctrine some American theologians created in the 19th century and which hasn't gained much support elsewhere.
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#516I can shed some light on this, maybe - In the year before the 2020 election, a market opened on predictit called "Will Hillary run for president? Yes/No" First this was a reasonable market, but quickly it became obvious she wasn't running (because she repeatedly said she wasn't, there was no campaign created at all, absolutely zero indicators she was running because she wasn't). Predictit allowed a comment section wh…
This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening. The most interesting part of the article IMO was the fact that the 3% probability is artificially high because there is no one willing to take the otherside of the bet, because betting "No" requires you to give your money to the prediction market for 6+ months, and if you're only getting a 1% return if you w…
I came here to say this, but you explained it better than I could have. At 3% odds, it's not worth it to participate in this market because a money market fund gives a better return, even if you believe the odds of this happening are 0 (and they're never 0, there was a first coming of Jesus after all, you don't have to believe in the supernatural to see how it could happen.)
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#517Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Who said he ignored the rest of humanity? People now know about god, but they wouldn't have 3,000 years ago. And it's only one particular culture that was being communicated with, or did the Chinese and Native Americans just ignore him when tried to message them? > I do not see what the issue is with a "very human scale" for messaging. That's...how you communicate with humans. It's because its messaging seems to ha…
They would've known about God 3,000 years ago. No, Chinese and Native Americans and etc did not ignore him. Abraham was of a pagan land when he first encountered God. In any case, it was definitely communicated across the world. If you're picking a specific point in time when first contact was established according to a specific tradition, that might raise a question of why first contract there and in that way. But w…
> They would've known about God 3,000 years ago. No, Chinese and Native Americans and etc did not ignore him. Abraham was of a pagan land when he first encountered God.
What do you mean? Did the non-Judeo-Christian faiths know about him or not? What was their relationship to it?
> But we in 2025 have the hindsight of seeing what happened globally after that and spread it did.
Sure, it only took thousands of years and a co-opting of the original message by an apocalyptic Galilean preacher changing the message and constant re-envisioning through history. And if the end game is half people in the world still not believing (if we generously assume that both Christianity and Islam are equal and valid in the eyes of the Hewbrew god), I guess mission accomplished.
> I don't think it is a coincidence that specific groups of people received revelation the way they did, when considering things like the quality of their oral and written history. Would you pick a region of people who don't know how to write and barely know how to talk, or a region of people who are highly skilled in both?
But in the case of a place like China, writing was definitely in the cards. Ancient Babylon had writing long before that as well, so that's not a good reason.
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#518We dont know the day or hour. Yet, the end won't come until the Gospel has reached all nations. Likely, people groups. https://biblehub.com/matthew/24-14.htm https://joshuaproject.net/ Jesus also warns that His message, the Gospel (GetHisWord.com), will be universally hated across the world by those who dont believe. The Devil will inspire people to censor it to prevent both people's sins being forgiven and godliness…
I would hate to see this conversation get off topic so... did you bet?
Re off topic
The topic was about gambling on the return of Christ. I shared Biblical prophecy about the end times, including pre-conditions for Christ's return. That should establish whether such a wager would be correct or incorrect. Also, Christ commanded us to always share His Gospel and point people to Him when He is the topic.
Re my wager
Christ warned to have nothing to do with people who were making claims about His return before the Second Coming. That they're liars and schemers. See below in v26-27:
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matt.%2024&vers...
So, no I didnt bet. I'll also have nothing to do with that. I also think the Bible leans against gambling. It also becomes a household-destroying addiction for many. So, no to other forms of gambling, too.
Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#519Earlier quoted context omitted.
What is the cognitive dissonance true believers learn to live with?
Just my opinion, I think at least a portion of them have to learn to live with "faith" being the answer to some hard questions. You also don't have to look hard for doctrines that are contradictory. For example: was Jesus human or God? (and keep in mind that God is traditinally viewed as tri-omni, meaning omnipotent, omniscient, and omnibenevolent) Many times I've asked that I'm told "he was 100% human and also 100%…
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Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return
#520Is there some way to short sell this?