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The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

ericneyman.wordpress.com

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Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Christians don't belive the Bible was written by God they belive it's the word of God. the inconsistencies and contradictions are because its been written by many people over hundreds of years.

They don't even believe it's the word of God, strictly -- Jesus is the Word of God, the Bible merely contains (in parts) the word of God as reported by men. This is a key distinction between Christian and Islamic theology.

I've heard it described as "Jesus is the Word of God, the Bible is words about God", but there is definitely diversity of belief within Christianity about that; there are certainly groups that have views of the Bible that other Christians view as near-idolatrous.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jesus founded a church in Matthew 16. He literally said go forth and make disciples of all nations. I could go through scripture and demonstrate why almost every claim you said here is false, but you don't care about scripture, just emotion.

Churches are fine - there are endless letters and instructions to them in the scripture you mention. "Religion" is not the same word as church. If you feel compelled to "demonstrate why almost every claim you said..." etc, feel free - it's ok! Christianity is about mercy and compassion, and you mention "emotion" - that's absolutely true. I'm very emotional about it, because my message is an emotional one, and emotion…

So Jesus: 1. Founded a church 2. told the apostles to make all nations disciplines and baptize them, bringing them into that church 3. The apostles wrote letters to those churches instructing the people on how to live a christian life 4. The successors of those apostles carried on their teachings, spreading more churches all over the world and convening councils to clarify doctrine

sounds a lot like a religion, how do you define religion?

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#235
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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Regarding the Robert Morris reference, not going to defend any action, but I will point out his 'bad action' was 40 years ago.

Why does that matter? There are abuses happening now, every day, by high profile. Some (Epstein, Diddy) are starting to be caught. Others (Drake) may face judgement far into the future. Others (Chris Brown) never will.

If criticizing modern church culture requires referencing acts of 40 years ago, and criticizing secular culture requires references acts that happened recently, and will probably happen again tomorrow, that could indicate that the modern USA church is doing better than we think. Possibly a lot better.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#236
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if you are making a nuanced claim about the proportions of self-identified adherents who actually subscribe to orthodoxies, but the population statistics generally cut against your claim. https://www.statista.com/statistics/374704/share-of-global-p...

If not "the majority", then a proportion conceivably large enough to affect the polymarket results.

Isn't that subset of the population also very likely to believe that gambling is haram?

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#237

The discussion in Polymarket revolves around the trustworthiness of the market creator and their resolution criteria. Any discussion here that doesn't consider those things is missing the forest for the trees. The market isn't really about Jesus. Jesus is just the engagement hook. It's the reason this post has 147+ comments on Hacker News and $500k+ in market transactions on Polymarket. There's very little stopping t…

Great point. Never forget about counterparty risk!

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#238

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Come back and reign for a thousand years, but not touch private contact law and definitively let you keep and enjoy the fruits of the money you bet on him.

Yeah, I won't rule out that they exist, but I think there are far better ways of "betting on Jesus" according to most denominations. I think price fluctuations in a market like this is more down to people betting on a bigger fool coming along, or otherwise convinced themselves that they can make money off this without actually believing in the outcome.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#239

I can shed some light on this, maybe - In the year before the 2020 election, a market opened on predictit called "Will Hillary run for president? Yes/No" First this was a reasonable market, but quickly it became obvious she wasn't running (because she repeatedly said she wasn't, there was no campaign created at all, absolutely zero indicators she was running because she wasn't). Predictit allowed a comment section wh…

Sounds similar in theme with what happened to Hertz. I think at some point it was bankrupt but speculation still had the share price way above what it was worth (nothing).

The original shares ended up being worth $8. There might have been a point during the bankruptcy were they were worth nothing (due to changing used car values) but in the end they were worth something.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/12/hertz-investors-snag-8-a-share...

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#240

This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.

That's an argument in support of the article's thesis, not against it. It doesn't make sense to say that the article doesn't "address" it. It's true that it doesn't mention it, but there's no sense in phrasing that like it's an argument against the article's point!
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