Live data from Hacker News

The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

ericneyman.wordpress.com

91–100 of 649 posts

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#91
post #59
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's return that year should make many irrelevant.

You'd still want to hedge.

Right? If you believe the odds of something are 51/49, you can say both 1) I believe the event is more likely than not, and 2) I absolutely will not bet the farm on the event.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#92
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have more basic issues: Just one-third of U.S. Catholics agree with their church that Eucharist is body, blood of Christ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/05/transubst...

I think the Carholic church has decided it's dangerous to accept parts of the Bible as metaphor, so they must force a literal interpretation on everything - even to the point of absurdity. Jesus said it's his body and blood so it must be. Because you know, everyone making a symbolic gesture always says that's what they're doing...

As a non-religious person, I wonder, if you reject a bunch of catholic ideas (the authority of the pope, the Eucharist, catholic social teaching, etc), why not just be protestant?

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#95
So, there are actual geopolitical ramifications of this metric.

A lot of US protestant theology is rooted in a concept called "dispensationalism" that was introduced in the mid 1800s. It's a heady concept to explain, but essentially it comes down to a few linked core concepts:

- The secret, sudden arrival of Jesus to "rapture" believers away

- The world is getting worse, not better. There is limited use in improving society.

- Strict literalist interpretation of all scripture (where convenient, obv)

- An individual's ability to discern scripture as well as the state of the world

- Obsession with Israel as a nation-state

https://christianhistoryinstitute.org/magazine/article/dispe...

By tracking this number, you have a good proxy for the current fervor of a lot of intertwined political concepts in the US.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#97
The somewhat moribund Foresight Exchange which is a ~30 year old play money idea futures market has discussed this idea a lot over the years, even to the point of having a number of "True" claims of exactly the form described in the article, such as http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=T2015

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#98
post #76
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind true believers often learn to live with a massive cognitive dissonance This is quite true. Taking away just the moral teachings is not true belief. Revelations is serious business stuff, the apostles watched Christ ascend from Mount Olive, it’s extremely trippy things. True believers are literally believing in wild shit. In fact, if you are true believer, you almost need to keep it hidden because it’s go…

depends how you define a true believer. i am not christian, but i would claim that the people you describe aren't true believers because they haven't really understood the bible.

"they haven't really understood the bible."

Pretty much every religious person believes that THEIR understanding is the correct one. You cant objectively say that "this is the correct understanding" from a religous perspective (you can however do it from a for example a historical or textual analysis perspective).

You cant objectively prove that only mormons or bapists have "understood" the bible correct and everyone else are false believers.

Re: The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

#100

This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.

Wouldn't the inverse be true also? Why would non-believers bet yes? If they lose (which they see as the near certain case) they're out the money, if they win the money doesn't really offset eternal damnation. Seems like betting no is the only smart play regardless of personal beliefs.
Post reply on HN