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Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

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Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#61

Post by jfb »

bps4484 wrote: post #59
jfb wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook would be unbelievably lucky to be the next Yahoo! -- sure, they're dead meat now, but that just means its easy to forget what a success Y! used to be.

Facebook would have to really screw up at this point in order to end up the next Yahoo! They made 1 billion in 2011, while yahoo only made over 1 billion 3 times (max was 1.8 billion in '05, my sources are the yahoo annual reports) since 96. The question isn't whether Facebook can be as big as Yahoo!, that is basically assured. The question is whether they can be the next google (who went from making 400 million when…

Absolute numbers are not a meaningful metric -- much better to compare e.g. each sites percentage of overall traffic, or dollar of revenue per user. There's so much more money being flushed down the internet toilet these days that I would be shocked if Facebook were anywhere near Yahoo!'s numbers from their peak.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#62

Post by chii »

bunderbunder wrote: post #7
grandalf wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think CPAs are the right metric. Facebook is massively engaging. I think TV is the most natural synergy b/c people socialize around it today but only in one household. Facebook should also launch a web search similar to Google just go capture some market share in search-driven advertising. Around the world, Facebook is the fastest loading website (it often beats Google). Its infrastructure is ready to make a…

Perhaps CPA is not the right metric. But a bunch of hype that glosses over the fact that Facebook doesn't really actually make very much money is not the right metric, either.

But i thought facebook's revenues are in the billions? Where is that money coming from?

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#63

Post by brudgers »

aasarava wrote: post #25

Everyone keeps focusing on Facebook as an ad platform, and pointing to the difficulty in monetizing mobile via ads. But I'm betting Facebook is on the brink of rolling out a digital wallet. They already act as an authentication/identity service with hundreds of millions of users. If those users linked their FB accounts to their bank accounts, they'd be able to buy anything on any integrated website that they log into…

>"I'm betting Facebook is on the brink of rolling out a digital wallet."

I'm betting they're on the brink of slicing dicing and selling everyone's personal information. It's more profitable. It makes use of their principle asset. There are few comparable companies to act as competitors. It's a really big and lucrative market.

And it solves their problem with monetizing mobile.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#64

Post by chii »

robryan wrote: post #22
batgaijin wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, I hate arguments for this. How many new accounts did you create annually 10 years ago? How many new accounts did you create annually 5 years ago? How many new accounts did you create this year? People don't mind switching, and in fact they don't mind having simultaneous accounts. People on this forum think that they are 'special' inasmuch they don't mind negotiating multiple accounts with relative ease, but it's…

I see facebooks problem right now more as an inability to effective monetize their users, rather than at risk of a large set exodus any time soon. Facebook is very ingrained in what so many people and businesses do now unlike any other web service has been. You see Facebook branding on most businesses ads and physical locations. Of course it is possible to overcome these network effects but I think that if they are s…

> an inability to effective monetize their users

this is the problem - facebook's value proposition for a user is not Facebook itself, but the ability to interact with another person easily (games, photoshares, pokes etc). However, this isn't actually worth very much money, and to try to extract that from the user is fruitless.

The only real way to monetize is really to sell behavioural data of its users to advertisers. There is real value in that, even if the users don't like it. But its a double edged sword, and this sword is what is going to kill facebook!

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#65

Post by joelrunyon »

chii wrote: post #62
bunderbunder wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps CPA is not the right metric. But a bunch of hype that glosses over the fact that Facebook doesn't really actually make very much money is not the right metric, either.

But i thought facebook's revenues are in the billions? Where is that money coming from?

A little over 3.5 billion. I think he was saying that the revenue considering the company size and user base (almost 1 billion) is not very much.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#66

Post by wisty »

xpose2000 wrote: post #35
cfront wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this some sort of extreme cognitive dissonance? Why can't people just accept that Facebook is a fad? It does not mean the world is going to end. It's a fad, not a solid company. We went through this before 12 years ago. Eventually the market figures it out. Move on. That's what Thiel is doing. More fads are around the corner. Investors will keep falling for the same old tricks. Gates and Ellison are very poor comp…

Facebook a fad? Think of it this way... The social web is just as important as search on the web. The web will always have search engines, and it will always have social networks. Google took over where Excite and Altavista left off. Facebook took over where MySpace and Friendster left off. Google controls the majority of the social search market. Facebook controls the majority of the social network market. So you mi…

> The social web is just as important as search on the web.

Teachers are just as important as lawyers. But search captures people looking to solve problems (i.e. potential customers) while social captures people looking to waste time.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#67

Post by beagle3 »

grandalf wrote: post #2

I'm going to buy when it gets closer to $10 per share. Half the world uses Facebook every day so let's not pretend it isn't an awesome business with utterly massive potential.

Where does the magical $10 number come from in this decision of yours?

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#68

Post by ricree »

brk wrote: post #26
aasarava wrote: post #25

Everyone keeps focusing on Facebook as an ad platform, and pointing to the difficulty in monetizing mobile via ads. But I'm betting Facebook is on the brink of rolling out a digital wallet. They already act as an authentication/identity service with hundreds of millions of users. If those users linked their FB accounts to their bank accounts, they'd be able to buy anything on any integrated website that they log into…

Given their past approach to several privacy and sharing type issues, there is no way in hell I'm buying anything with a Facebook wallet.

Nor will I.

But judging by the past response to privacy issues, there are a lot of people that will complain for a week before jumping headfirst.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#69

Post by aeturnum »

chii wrote: post #57
aeturnum wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you should consider your own example more closely. "Search" is not just Google, it would be all search engines (good luck finding that old email). Similarly, removing social would not just remove Facebook, it would also remove hacker news (certainly a social website) and all the other forums you frequent. Social websites, widely, are websites that allow users to connect to each other. Even 4chan is social. Wi…

I think you are calling more things social than the word pre-supposes. If you call 4chan "social", then you have the wrong definition - 4chan is a forum, a place people discuss things. Facebook, or "the social web" as its coined these days, is about the friend graph (ditto with twitter - its about who you follow, and who follows you), not about discussions. Imho, the web will function perfectly well without facebook…

As I said in my post, I'd include forums in "social." Facebook has the graph, but you could construct a weaker form of that graph using any of the popular community-focused sites.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#70

Post by tedunangst »

scotth wrote: post #60
chii wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

of course not - they are called average users for a reason. But when shit hits the fan and someone's privacy was violated and made the media, then FB will have a nightmare of a PR incident, and if there is money involved, probably law suits etc. Its just human nature to ignore what you can - and this privacy problem is a long term problem that tends to get ignored in the short term.

You're assuming that mistakes made in the past are likely to be repeated. It is as likely to assume that Facebook has learned from their mistakes.

Also, Facebook is obligated to provide the results of a privacy audit to the FTC for the next 20 years.
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