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Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

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Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#51

Post by 001sky »

The market is concluding FB is not likely $1 trillion company. The Q is order of magnitude for FB $TEV.

A. $1000B ? No... B. $100B? Maybe C. $10B? Possible

I think Theil is obvi not betting on $1T.

Thus, after 8 yrs, time to go.

At ranges between B and C, holding a large position in a public stock that is exhibiting true volatility (ie, something other than upward drift), is not likely to please his LP investors.

Nor, similarly would it be advised for his own holdings.

Reading more into the tea-leaves (ie, operationally) might be fun, but I'm not sure its adding explanatory power to what we are seeing here.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#52

Post by rootedbox »

prostoalex wrote: post #30
rootedbox wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A facebook insider decided that facebook wasn't worth keeping his money in prior to the IPO. That is highlightable..

He converted a $500,000 investment into more than $1,000,000,000, which is at least 200,000% ROI. Would you recommend against diversification at this point? Do you provide financial advisory services by any chance?

I am positive he is doing diversification but not with facebook as part of his portfolio; as he sold pretty much all of his facebook stock. So once again. Facebook insider chooses to sell most of his stock prior to IPO, and prior to first quarter results. Very highlightable..

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#53

Post by aeturnum »

spaghetti wrote: post #41
xpose2000 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook a fad? Think of it this way... The social web is just as important as search on the web. The web will always have search engines, and it will always have social networks. Google took over where Excite and Altavista left off. Facebook took over where MySpace and Friendster left off. Google controls the majority of the social search market. Facebook controls the majority of the social network market. So you mi…

The "social web" is no where near as important as search. Imagine removing search from the net. Now imagine removing Facebook or other social networking sites. The difference is staggering.

I think you should consider your own example more closely. "Search" is not just Google, it would be all search engines (good luck finding that old email). Similarly, removing social would not just remove Facebook, it would also remove hacker news (certainly a social website) and all the other forums you frequent.

Social websites, widely, are websites that allow users to connect to each other. Even 4chan is social. Without search, we couldn't find anything on the web, but without social we couldn't talk to anyone. I don't know which is worse, but they would both be enormous losses.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#54

Post by marquis »

aasarava wrote: post #25

Everyone keeps focusing on Facebook as an ad platform, and pointing to the difficulty in monetizing mobile via ads. But I'm betting Facebook is on the brink of rolling out a digital wallet. They already act as an authentication/identity service with hundreds of millions of users. If those users linked their FB accounts to their bank accounts, they'd be able to buy anything on any integrated website that they log into…

I read of a bank in New Zealand doing this. Perhaps it's a trial? http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/bank-app-allows-payments-fac...

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#55

Post by rootedbox »

izak30 wrote: post #29
rootedbox wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A facebook insider decided that facebook wasn't worth keeping his money in prior to the IPO. That is highlightable..

By the reports, he made 800x on his investment. He's held on for a while already.

Should Warren Buffet sell on his total investment? I mean he's got a return of 10000000x, and he's been in it for a really really long time..

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#56

Post by chii »

untog wrote: post #46
J-H wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is would you trust Facebook with your wallet? I wouldn't, and I'm betting most wouldn't after all of Facebook's Privacy gaffes.

I'm betting most wouldn't after all of Facebook's Privacy gaffes. I think you overestimate the extent to which average users are aware of/care about Facebook's privacy gaffes.

of course not - they are called average users for a reason. But when shit hits the fan and someone's privacy was violated and made the media, then FB will have a nightmare of a PR incident, and if there is money involved, probably law suits etc. Its just human nature to ignore what you can - and this privacy problem is a long term problem that tends to get ignored in the short term.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#57

Post by chii »

aeturnum wrote: post #53
spaghetti wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "social web" is no where near as important as search. Imagine removing search from the net. Now imagine removing Facebook or other social networking sites. The difference is staggering.

I think you should consider your own example more closely. "Search" is not just Google, it would be all search engines (good luck finding that old email). Similarly, removing social would not just remove Facebook, it would also remove hacker news (certainly a social website) and all the other forums you frequent. Social websites, widely, are websites that allow users to connect to each other. Even 4chan is social. Wi…

I think you are calling more things social than the word pre-supposes. If you call 4chan "social", then you have the wrong definition - 4chan is a forum, a place people discuss things.

Facebook, or "the social web" as its coined these days, is about the friend graph (ditto with twitter - its about who you follow, and who follows you), not about discussions.

Imho, the web will function perfectly well without facebook - each of the features of facebook such as photosharing, event organizing etc, all have ready replacements. Sure, the friend graph helps you connect easier/faster, but taking it away isn't as detrimental as taking away search.

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#58

Post by [deleted] »

cfront wrote: post #39
aasarava wrote: post #25

Everyone keeps focusing on Facebook as an ad platform, and pointing to the difficulty in monetizing mobile via ads. But I'm betting Facebook is on the brink of rolling out a digital wallet. They already act as an authentication/identity service with hundreds of millions of users. If those users linked their FB accounts to their bank accounts, they'd be able to buy anything on any integrated website that they log into…

Well, this sale of 20+ million shares doesn't exactly stand as a vote of confidence for the upcoming Facebook Wallet (TM) does it? I tried to tell him to contact you before filing his intent to sell with the SEC but he wouldn't listen. Hey, what does he know? The Facebook experts are here on HN.

[deleted]

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#59

Post by bps4484 »

jfb wrote: post #34
mikeryan wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fad, not a solid company. I'm pretty bearish on Facebook's stock, but there's nothing here to indicate its just a fad. This is a company with over a billion dollars in revenues per quarter with a pretty consistent 15-25% profit margin. Is it the next Google? Its looking more and more like its not, but that doesn't mean its going to be the next Yahoo! either.

Facebook would be unbelievably lucky to be the next Yahoo! -- sure, they're dead meat now, but that just means its easy to forget what a success Y! used to be.

Facebook would have to really screw up at this point in order to end up the next Yahoo! They made 1 billion in 2011, while yahoo only made over 1 billion 3 times (max was 1.8 billion in '05, my sources are the yahoo annual reports) since 96. The question isn't whether Facebook can be as big as Yahoo!, that is basically assured. The question is whether they can be the next google (who went from making 400 million when they ipo'd to 9.7 billion today).

Re: Peter Thiel Sells Majority Of His Facebook Shares In Deal Planned Pre-IPO

#60

Post by scotth »

chii wrote: post #56
untog wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm betting most wouldn't after all of Facebook's Privacy gaffes. I think you overestimate the extent to which average users are aware of/care about Facebook's privacy gaffes.

of course not - they are called average users for a reason. But when shit hits the fan and someone's privacy was violated and made the media, then FB will have a nightmare of a PR incident, and if there is money involved, probably law suits etc. Its just human nature to ignore what you can - and this privacy problem is a long term problem that tends to get ignored in the short term.

You're assuming that mistakes made in the past are likely to be repeated. It is as likely to assume that Facebook has learned from their mistakes.
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