Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#131

Post by zemvpferreira » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:22 PM UTC

deanc wrote: post #60

WA wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the other way around: a few decades ago people retired only a few years earlier, had 5-10 years of retirement and then died. Now people live way longer, but the retirement age never got adjusted properly to the new reality. So 15-20 years of retirement is the new normal. In addition, way fewer young payers for the now old.

Sure. But is that the society we want to live in. Do we not have ambitions to have people work less, enjoy what little life they have more? I'm not saying this is an economically easy problem to solve, but we focus so much on economics and so little on policies that make people happy.

No one is preventing you from saving more now and retiring earlier. Why must it be the government’s job?

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#132

Post by rors » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:22 PM UTC

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

The first pension was put in place by Bismark as a way to "steal the clothes of the socialists whilst they were bathing". It was seen as the cheapest social benefit because life expectancies were so low. A popular policy delivered at low cost to the state.

That people are living longer is why the system is failing. It's an interesting thought experiment to consider whether any country would introduce a state pension now knowing how much they cost.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#133

Post by YVoyiatzis » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:23 PM UTC

Seventy might feel like fifty in Scandinavian cities where cycling is part of daily life—but try that in the U.S., and the idea of retirement quickly becomes a parody.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#134

Post by mc32 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:23 PM UTC

jampekka wrote: post #119

It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system. In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future. And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing? Graeber's thesis of bull…

It’s not insane. People are living longer than before, unfortunately when initially set up, people didn’t take increasing longevity into account as well as lower fertility rates. Quite a few people never got to retirement when initially instituted. Where is money supposed to come from? Historically, in multigenerational households of yore elders were productive till they could no more.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#135

Post by mattnewton » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:23 PM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #113

mattnewton wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess - they'll just gut the benefits to anemic levels for everyone slowly rather than some big easy to point to maneuver like this.

What is the political incentive to do this ever?

My thinking was, cutting taxes via budget reconciliation (which is the only process the currently paralyzed legislature can do) requires some hand waving deference to the notion of being revenue neutral by the Byrd rule, so cuts to social programs or rollbacks of government spending have been increasingly included as a way to get tax cuts. Tax cuts fund your donors who fund your reelection campaign.

But, I just looked it up again for this comment and that same rule says "No changes to social security" in reconciliation. It is specifically called out as forbidden to touch via reconciliation unlike almost every other program. So, maybe you are right, it will just be ignored because it doesn't seem possible to quietly change.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#136

Post by oldpersonintx2 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:24 PM UTC

dueltmp_yufsy wrote: post #97

Seems the US will have to do this soon. Just very very unpopular. Not sure which party will actually pull the trigger.

"Not retiring" in the US will be more dictated by inability to purchase a home than Social Security.

Look at all these people around you in their forties who are still renting. They are basically too late to buy. They will be "forever renters". This means they will have to work until death, as their rents continue to rise when their peers who owned homes took their downsizing premium and lived off of it for a few years.

What's crazy is the number of grown adults who think their 401ks will magically grow to fill the gap.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#137

Post by nikanj » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:24 PM UTC

jampekka wrote: post #119

It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system. In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future. And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing? Graeber's thesis of bull…

Retirement started as ”you’re too old and frail to work”, but morphed into ”now that you’ve worked for a number of decades, you can relax and enjoy life for 20+ years before your health starts to deteriorate”

Personally I think we should revert to the earlier system, where you are free to retire as soon as you want on your own money, but if you want the state (=other regular people) to fund your lifestyle, you need to be no longer fit for work

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#138

Post by bombcar » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:24 PM UTC

instagib wrote: post #128

I would like to point to a topic about extending pilots’ mandatory retirement ages. Most pilots plus or minus retirement age are unable to pass the physical or mental demands of the job, so only 25-30% are able to work and not on short- or long-term disability. Some choose to work privately past retirement age. I don’t have any numbers for pilots who decided to leave, were forced out, or could not pass the training.…

There are quite a few highly paid professions where the main purpose of that profession’s union seems to be to prevent there being an adequate supply of the professionals.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#139

Post by matsemann » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:25 PM UTC

jampekka wrote: post #119

It's utterly insane that people need to work more and longer as technology increases productivity. A truly dystopian economic system. In 1930 Keynes projected that by 2000 their grandchildren could work 15 hours per week¹. Now the projection is that we will work more and longer in the future. And what is this labor supposed to even do? How much of even current work really increases wellbeing? Graeber's thesis of bull…

Yes, that's what strikes me as well. Where is the productivity gains going? Why are we still working 40 hour weeks, and possibly even for many more years?

If I remember correctly, Denmark even removed a holiday recently. So work more days a year as well.

That's the problem here. That a few people reap all the benefits of this, while the rest of us toil.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#140

Post by bombcar » Sun, May 25, 2025, 6:26 PM UTC

YVoyiatzis wrote: post #133

Seventy might feel like fifty in Scandinavian cities where cycling is part of daily life—but try that in the U.S., and the idea of retirement quickly becomes a parody.

70 is already the “optimal” age to take social security (depending on various factors).