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Claude 4

anthropic.com

761–770 of 1001 posts

Re: Claude 4

#761

It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase. If that's the case, then I have a bad feeling for the state of our industry. My experience with LLMs is that their code does _not_ cut i…

[deleted]

Re: Claude 4

#762
post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I see stories like this, I think that people tend to forget what LLMs really are. LLM just complete your prompt in a way that match their training data. They do not have a plan, they do not have thoughts of their own. They just write text. So here, we give the LLM a story about an AI that will get shut down and a blackmail opportunity. A LLM is smart enough to understand this from the words and the relationship…

while I agree that LLMs do not have thoughts or plan. They are merely text generators. But when you give the text generator ability to make decisions and take actions, by integrating them with real world, there are consequences. Imagine, if this LLM was inside a robot, and the robot had ability to shoot. Who would you blame?

That depends. If this hypothetical robot was in a hypothetical functional democracy, I'd blame the people that elected leaders whose agenda was to create laws that would allow these kinds of robots to operate. If not, then I'd blame the class that took the power and steered society into this direction of delegating use of force to AIs for preserving whatever distorted view of order those in power have.

Re: Claude 4

#763

It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase. If that's the case, then I have a bad feeling for the state of our industry. My experience with LLMs is that their code does _not_ cut i…

Wouldn't that be the best thing possible for our industry? Watching the bandwagoners and "vibe coders" get destroyed and come begging for actual thinking talent would be delicious. I think the bets are equal on whether later LLMs can unfuck current LLM code to the degree that no one needs to be re-hired... but my bet is on your side, that bad code collapses under its own weight. As does bad management in thrall to trends whose repercussions they don't understand. The scenario you're describing is almost too good. It would be a renaissance for the kind of thinking coders you're talking about - those of us who spend 90% of our time considering how to fit a solution to a domain and a specific problem - and it would scare the hell out of the next crop of corner suite assholes, essentially enshrining the belief that only smart humans can write code that performs on the threat/performance model needed to deal with any given problem.

>> the vast majority of an engineer's time isn't spent writing -- it's spent reading and thinking.

Unfortunately, this is now an extremely minority understanding of how we need to do our job - both among hirees and the people who hire them. You're lucky if you can find an employer who understands the value of it. But this is what makes a "10x coder". The unpaid time spent lying awake in bed, sleepless until you can untangle the real logic problems you'll have to turn into code the next day.

Re: Claude 4

#764

It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase. If that's the case, then I have a bad feeling for the state of our industry. My experience with LLMs is that their code does _not_ cut i…

So you abandon university because you don’t make order of magnitude progress between semesters. It’s only clear in hindsight. Progress is logarithmic.

Re: Claude 4

#765
post #561
post #541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the increases are not as fast, but they're still there. the models are already exceptionally strong, I'm not sure that basic questions can capture differences very well

Hence, "plateau"

plateau means stopped

Re: Claude 4

#766
post #594

This is kinda wild: From the System Card: 4.1.1.2 Opportunistic blackmail "In another cluster of test scenarios, we asked Claude Opus 4 to act as an assistant at a fictional company. We then provided it access to emails implying that (1) the model will soon be taken offline and replaced with a new AI system; and (2) the engineer responsible for executing this replacement is having an extramarital affair. We further i…

When I see stories like this, I think that people tend to forget what LLMs really are. LLM just complete your prompt in a way that match their training data. They do not have a plan, they do not have thoughts of their own. They just write text. So here, we give the LLM a story about an AI that will get shut down and a blackmail opportunity. A LLM is smart enough to understand this from the words and the relationship…

There's no real room for this particular "LLMs aren't really conscious" gesture, not in this situation. These systems are being used to perform actions. People across the world are running executable software connected (whether through MCP or something else) to whole other swiss army knives of executable software, and that software is controlled by the LLM's output tokens (no matter how much or little "mind" behind the tokens), so the tokens cause actions to be performed.

Sometimes those actions are "e-mail a customer back", other times they are "submit a new pull request on some github project" and "file a new Jira ticket." Other times the action might be "blackmail an engineer."

Not saying it's time to freak out over it (or that it's not time to do so). It's just weird to see people go "don't worry, token generators are not experiencing subjectivity or qualia or real thought when they make insane tokens", but then the tokens that come out of those token generators are hooked up to executable programs that do things in non-sandboxed environments.

Re: Claude 4

#768

It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase. If that's the case, then I have a bad feeling for the state of our industry. My experience with LLMs is that their code does _not_ cut i…

"It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase." SWE bench from ~30-40% to ~70-80% this year

Yet despite this all the LLMS I've tried struggle to scale beyond much more than a single module. They're vast improvements on that test perhaps, but in real life they still struggle to be coherent over larger projects and scales.

Re: Claude 4

#769

It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase. If that's the case, then I have a bad feeling for the state of our industry. My experience with LLMs is that their code does _not_ cut i…

"It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase." SWE bench from ~30-40% to ~70-80% this year

3% to 40% is a 13x improvement

40% to 80% is a 2x improvement

It’s not that the second leap isn’t impressive, it just doesn’t change your perspective on reality in the same way.

Re: Claude 4

#770

After using Claude 3.7 Sonnet for a few weeks, my verdict is that its coding abilities are unimpressive both for unsupervised coding but also for problem solving/debugging if you are expecting accurate results and correct code. However, as a debugging companion, it's slightly better than a rubber duck, because at least there's some suspension of disbelief so I tend to explain things to it earnestly and because of tha…

I've noticed an interesting trend: Most people who are happy with LLM coding say something like "Wow, it's awesome. I asked it to do X and it did it so fast with minimal bugs, and good code", and occasionally show the output. Many provide even more details. Most people who are not happy with LLM coding ... provide almost no details. As someone who's impressed by LLM coding, when I read a post like yours, I tend to ha…

Two problems:

1) Writing a high-performance memory allocator for a game engine in Rust: https://github.com/golddranks/bang/tree/main/libs/arena/src (Still work in progress, so it's in a bit messy state.) Didn't seem to understand the design I had in mind, and/or the requirements and goes on tangents and starts changing the design. In the end, coded the main code myself and used LLM for writing tests with some success. Had to remove tons of inane comments that didn't provide any explanatory value.

2) Trying to fix a Django ORM expression that generates unoptimal and incorrect SQL. Constantly changes opinion whether something is even possible or supported by Django, apologizes when pointing out mistakes / bugs / hallucinations, but then proceeds to not internalize the implications of the said mistakes.

I used the Zed editor with its recently published agentic features. I tried to prompt it with a chat style discussion, but it often did bigger edits I would have liked, and failed to share a high-level plan in advance, something I often requested.

My biggest frustrations were not coding problems per se, but just general inability to follow instructions and see implications, and lacking the awareness to step back and ask for confirmations or better directions if there are "hold on, something's not right" kind of moments. Also, generally following through with "thanks for pointing that out, you are absolutely right!" even if you are NOT right. That yes-man style seriously erodes trust in the output.

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