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Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

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21–30 of 31 posts

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#21
post #4

The technology to discover and retrieve minerals from asteroids is likely to be simpler than resolving politics and economics of it: In order to sell the minerals, there must be a way to attain ownership. How does one come to own an asteroid, or the minerals it contains? A land grab under a single government is manageable. When there are 200 sovereign states, who decides which asteroids are owned by whom? First to di…

If there are dozens of parties going for space, then they might fight for it. As is, I think we'll be lucky to just have one.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#22
post #18

Uh oh... "PM: You've suggested an asteroid could be brought closer to the Earth to make it easier to mine. Is that really feasible? EA: It is. One of the ways that we could do that is simply to turn the water on an asteroid into rocket fuel and burn it in a thruster that nudges its trajectory. Split water into hydrogen and oxygen, and you get the same fuels that launch space shuttles. Some asteroids are 20 percent wa…

You'll probably collect energy with solar panels or similar. You'll expend energy with rocket thrust, and all else being equal, rocket thrust is most efficiently used for orbital maneuvering when done over a short time. So you have energy collected over a long period of time, then released in a short period of time. That means you need to store that energy. It's not feasible to ship batteries up from the surface with…

Hydrogen is a pretty good rocket fuel in terms of Isp, but it has a tendency to boil off in space.

I still think it's very practical to consider moving asteroids around from a technical perspective. The political ramifications are huge. If the people in charge are malicious they could completely devastate the planet.

I think this is generally solvable by using lots of small thrusters that are independently controlled to make sure that no one can smash the thing into the planet, but getting sign-off from everyone who might have veto power is huge.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#23
post #3
post #2

"Our telescopes, which we call the Arkyd 100 spacecraft, are cubes half-a-meter on a side and will cost around $1 million each, though the first one, of course, will cost much more." I seriously find this mind-blowing. $1 million for a telescope launched into space sounds ridiculously cheap to me.

At $10k/kg to orbit I'd guess these will have to weigh less than 100 kg. Some articles report they will be 20 kg each: http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/06/20/12326161-aster...

SpaceX can launch it's Falcon 9 for half that cost right now. They can probably get down to $1000 per kilogram with more work and/or the Falcon 9 Heavy.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#24
post #19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've clearly not played EVE Online. This sounds like a joke, but it's probably the closest thing out there to an example of what the future will be like if mining of asteroids becomes insanely lucrative (and technology advances fast enough for us to even witness it). Someone who's played EVE for a significant amount of time (it's been years since I've touched any game) could probably answer everything above. This i…

Haven't played it, to my regret. Seems like, loosely speaking, chasing down sunken treasure, or possibly wildcatting for oil can offer precedent in some form. The notion of 'international waters' perhaps can apply to space. However, someone, sometime owned the treasure that was lost and may lay claim to it. My real question is, apparently, nations can not claim ownership of asteroids. But they will have to mutually d…

I don't see the problem. If you mine it, it's yours.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd have to be pretty dumb to bring copper back the surface. It would be far more valuable in orbit around Earth. Also NASA isn't, ah, the best example of a cost conscious and frugal organization. They probably don't make a good baseline for the expense of these trips. Planetary Resources still may never come close to turning a profit, but it's possible you're dismissing them a little too quickly.

Actually with his sloppy writing, I couldn't decide if he was dismissing Planetary Resources or Barclay's and the FT.

Ah, sorry bfe, I misunderstood your post. I agree with you in disagreeing with Barclays, if that makes sense.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#26
post #16

As a side project, I've been working on a site, http://asterank.com , that attempts to rank asteroids by their economic potential. These calculations take into account things like the energetic cost of reaching and extracting material from an asteroid. Open to any feedback or pointers.

That is an awesome project. Keep it up!

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#27
post #11

Two Barclays commodities analysts produced a gleefully scathing research note on this project, and the Financial Times concluded that "The space mining talk amounts, however, to no more than hot air and gobbledegook", all based on laughably inadequate points of comparison. For example: "Their calculations were based on Nasa’s forthcoming OSIRIS-REx mission, which aims to launch a probe in 2016 to pluck samples from a…

I've said it before but it bears repeating.

In no way is asteroid mining cost effective at the moment. However, that's not actually very relevant.

Several companies are working toward bringing down launch costs, SpaceX being the farthest along. If such efforts are successful they could result in lowering launch costs by around a factor of 10 to 100. That fundamentally changes what it is possible to do in space. Which obviously has a very direct impact on the feasibility of asteroid mining. More so, it will probably spur development in Earth orbit as well, including things like inhabited orbital stations, hotels, and eventually cities. That will create a hungry market for materials in orbit, and there the advantage of mining from an asteroid vs. launching from Earth (even given the reductions in cost mentioned above) makes asteroid mining all the more competitive.

Additionally, advances in robotics and automation could potentially make asteroid mining very cost effective. Consider that when mining an asteroid there is no environmental concern and the most effective mining methods can be made use of with brutal efficiency. And, of course, the development of advanced robotics to facilitate asteroid mining would of course be valuable for other uses and thus be a profitable spin-off invention.

There are other points of interest but they are relatively less important. The core point is that if these developments happen then asteroid mining could quite easily become profitable. Of course, there is no guarantee that any of this will happen. So why not wait until the opportunity is ripe and then start? You certainly could, but you'd find that you're just enough steps behind Planetary Resources to be at a significant disadvantage. They'll already have experience with operating spacecraft. They'll already have developed the core technologies necessary for mining asteroids. They'll already have identified the most valuable asteroid targets. They'll already have run pilot operations and overcome several key roadblocks. And on the day that it becomes profitable to sell asteroid mined resources they'll be there with the goods. And if it turns out not to be feasible then overall they'll still have made a better use of their funding than, say, buying instagram, and they likely will not have spent nearly as much money either.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#28

Uh oh... "PM: You've suggested an asteroid could be brought closer to the Earth to make it easier to mine. Is that really feasible? EA: It is. One of the ways that we could do that is simply to turn the water on an asteroid into rocket fuel and burn it in a thruster that nudges its trajectory. Split water into hydrogen and oxygen, and you get the same fuels that launch space shuttles. Some asteroids are 20 percent wa…

Most asteroids in our Solar System are bathed in about 1 KiloWatt/m^2 of readily available power 24/7 in the form of ordinary sunshine.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#29
post #2

"Our telescopes, which we call the Arkyd 100 spacecraft, are cubes half-a-meter on a side and will cost around $1 million each, though the first one, of course, will cost much more." I seriously find this mind-blowing. $1 million for a telescope launched into space sounds ridiculously cheap to me.

The Iridium satellites demonstrated that it's possible to build satellites in an assembly line, at enormous cost savings. For a very simple satellite I think $1mil/unit is achievable.

Re: Asteroid mining by Planetary Resources

#30
post #8

Uh oh... "PM: You've suggested an asteroid could be brought closer to the Earth to make it easier to mine. Is that really feasible? EA: It is. One of the ways that we could do that is simply to turn the water on an asteroid into rocket fuel and burn it in a thruster that nudges its trajectory. Split water into hydrogen and oxygen, and you get the same fuels that launch space shuttles. Some asteroids are 20 percent wa…

I think he's not de-hydrolyzing water to get energy per se, but to generate thrust. Say, you've got a nuclear reactor (or whatever else is more practical) on an asteroid. You cannot use the energy from the reactor to propel the rock, you need to generate thrust. So you take water, you split hydrogen & oxygen, you burn it, you get thrust.

Makes sense. Thanks.
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