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What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

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Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#72

Post by jl6 »

oytis wrote: post #60
jl6 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe time to fix the ponzi approach to pensions and welfare instead of continuing to assume unlimited population growth on a finite planet. Edit: it’s not that I don’t believe the population projections showing a peak later in the century (although I think the Club of Rome one in particular is inaccurate), it’s that these projections are based on there being continued effort to bring birth rates down, hence now not…

What approach would you take without getting rid of the concept of retirement entirely? If people live longer than they can work, they have to rely on the support of those who work in the old age - and the worse the radio of working people to retired people, the harder it is for the society.

The only thing that can work (which is also what is happening in practice) is to continually adjust the “pension & welfare” age upwards to achieve the necessary balance between working years and retirement years.

The upshot is that everyone will need to save more for retirement than they do currently, whether privately or via taxation.

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#73

Post by oytis »

jl6 wrote: post #72
oytis wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What approach would you take without getting rid of the concept of retirement entirely? If people live longer than they can work, they have to rely on the support of those who work in the old age - and the worse the radio of working people to retired people, the harder it is for the society.

The only thing that can work (which is also what is happening in practice) is to continually adjust the “pension & welfare” age upwards to achieve the necessary balance between working years and retirement years. The upshot is that everyone will need to save more for retirement than they do currently, whether privately or via taxation.

Well, that's what seems to be happening at least in Germany where I am. Retirement age goes up, retirement benefits (inflation-adjustment) go down, contributions to pension system go up.

It's always a bit of political struggle of course with back and forth, but the general trend is just that.

Re: What are people doing? Live-ish estimates based on global population dynamics

#79

Post by jl6 »

oytis wrote: post #73
jl6 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that can work (which is also what is happening in practice) is to continually adjust the “pension & welfare” age upwards to achieve the necessary balance between working years and retirement years. The upshot is that everyone will need to save more for retirement than they do currently, whether privately or via taxation.

Well, that's what seems to be happening at least in Germany where I am. Retirement age goes up, retirement benefits (inflation-adjustment) go down, contributions to pension system go up. It's always a bit of political struggle of course with back and forth, but the general trend is just that.

Nobody likes paying more and getting less, and it’s perceived as some kind of societal decline, but it’s more like a correction. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the high birth rates in developed nations declined, roughly, in conjunction with the rise of welfare states. Both are ways, roughly, of providing for yourself in the future. Both are unsustainable in their current forms.

We are living in the age of peak entitlement, where we draw down on the finite fossil fuel reserves of the past while simultaneously drawing down on the earnings of our children in the future.

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