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Remarks on AI from NZ

nealstephenson.substack.com

81–90 of 117 posts

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#81
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

> but we are already seeing an unprecedented fall in worldwide birth rates, which shows our social fabric itself is being pulled apart for paperclips People choose to have fewer kids as they get richer, it's not about living conditions like so many people like to claim, otherwise poor people wouldn't be having so many children. Even controlling for high living conditions, like in Scandinavia, people still choose to h…

I would worry about the correlation isn't causation in the above statement. Having less kids making you richer seems just as, if not more, plausible of an explanation (among other possibilities).

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#82
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

> but we are already seeing an unprecedented fall in worldwide birth rates, which shows our social fabric itself is being pulled apart for paperclips People choose to have fewer kids as they get richer, it's not about living conditions like so many people like to claim, otherwise poor people wouldn't be having so many children. Even controlling for high living conditions, like in Scandinavia, people still choose to h…

The upper class people in scandinavia are having more kids than the middle class.

Housing seems to be a pretty common issue that doesn't prevent people from having kids but if it delays (which it often does) it does the same job of dropping birthrates. I wish people would stop acting like it's only a wealth issue. Like oh if people get more money they no longer want kids....no

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#83

> Maybe a useful way to think about what it would be like to coexist in a world that includes intelligences that aren’t human is to consider the fact that we’ve been doing exactly that for long as we’ve existed, because we live among animals. Another analogy that I like is about large institutions / corporations. They are, right now, kind of like AIs. Like Harari says in one of his books, Peugeot co. is an entity tha…

Thank you. Well expressed. I very much agree with this and have been saying so to friends for years.

The way I look at it is that it's analogous to the way we ourselves function: we're made up of billions of cells which individually just follow simple programs mediated by local interactions with their neighbours as well as some global state mediated by hormones and signals from the nervous system. However collectively they produce what we call intelligence (and even consciousness) which we wouldn't ascribe to any of the component cells and those components aren't aware of the collective organisms goal. Moreover the overall organism can achieve goals and solve problems beyond the scale of the components.

Similarly our institutions, be they corporations, governments, etc... are collective intelligences with us as the parts. These institutions have goals and problems solving capabilities that far surpass our own - no individual could keep all Walmart stores perfectly stocked every day, or design a modern microchip or end-to-end AI platform, etc... . These really are the goals of the organisations, and not the individuals. Take for example the US government, every four years you swap out the individuals in the executive branch yet overall US policy remains largely unchained. Sure, sometimes there is a major shift in direction, but it takes time for that to be translated into shifts in policy and actions as different parts of the system react at different speeds. The bigger point is that the individuals executing the actions get swapped out over time (at different speeds for different parts like cells being replaced at different speeds in our bodies) but the organisation continues to pursue its own goal which only changes slowly over time. Political and financial analysts implicitly acknowledge this when they talk about US or Chinese policy but this often gets personified into the leader.

I think we really need to acknowledge more the existence and reality of organisational goals as independent of the goals of the individuals in those organisations. I was struck by how in the movie The Corporation they point out that corporations often take actions that are contrary to the beliefs of the individuals in them, including the CEO because the CEO is bound by his fiduciary duty to the shareholders. Corporations are legal persons and if you analyse them as persons they are psychopaths, without any human feelings or regard for human cost or externalities unless those are enforced through some legal or pricing mechanism. Yet when corporations or organisations transgress we often hold the individuals accountable. Sometimes the individuals are to blame but often its how the game has been set up that is at fault. For example, in a globally heterogenous tax regime, a multinational corporation will naturally minimise its tax burden, it can't really do otherwise and the executives of the company have a fiduciary duty to shareholders to carry that out.

Therefore we have revise and keep evolving the rules of the game in order to stay compatible with human values and survival.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#84
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

> but we are already seeing an unprecedented fall in worldwide birth rates, which shows our social fabric itself is being pulled apart for paperclips People choose to have fewer kids as they get richer, it's not about living conditions like so many people like to claim, otherwise poor people wouldn't be having so many children. Even controlling for high living conditions, like in Scandinavia, people still choose to h…

It's not about being rich or not, it's about working hard to have a simple life. If you take a look into all those people who are not having kids, usually is because their work and balance in life needs to be like that. If you have a kid, it will lag your career and probably will stop the way you make more money each year, by growing up or scaling up in your company.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#85

Fun read, thanks for posting! > If I had time to do it and if I knew more about how AIs work, I’d be putting my energies into building AIs whose sole purpose was to predate upon existing AI models by using every conceivable strategy to feed bogus data into them, interrupt their power supplies, discourage investors, and otherwise interfere with their operations. Not out of malicious intent per se but just from a gener…

That quote sounded terrifying. It reminds me of The Incredibles, where (spoiler) the villain recruits superheroes to try to defeat his "out of control robot", in order to make it invincible.

I think we want AI to have an "achilles heel" we can stab if it turns out we need to.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#86
post #36

Is this the sci-fi writer? if so, why is it important about AI?

Because sci-fi is about thinking about how technology affects us as human beings, and the conference was about how AI will affect us as human beings.

He was invited presumably partly just to draw people to the conference, partly because he's used to thinking about how technology affects society. He says right up front that he has no authority to speak "ex cathedra" about what's going to happen, but that his goal was to say some things that might provoke discussion among the group.

I mean, sure, the fact that Neal Stephenson can draw a bigger crowd to talk about AI than a real AI scientist is kind of annoying. But that's the way humans are; if your goal is to influence humans, you've got to take their behavior into account. Stephenson is trying to use his (perhaps in some ways undeserved) powers for good, and I think did a decent job.

Watch this video about why Veritasium gave in and started using clickbaity titles. In short, their goal is to get knowledge out to more people, and clickbait-y titles improve that significantly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2xHZPH5Sng

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#87

> Maybe a useful way to think about what it would be like to coexist in a world that includes intelligences that aren’t human is to consider the fact that we’ve been doing exactly that for long as we’ve existed, because we live among animals. Another analogy that I like is about large institutions / corporations. They are, right now, kind of like AIs. Like Harari says in one of his books, Peugeot co. is an entity tha…

> We survived those kinds of entities Might want to wait just a bit longer before confidently making this call.

The Neanderthal didn't survive us. Neither did any of the other extinct species. It's perfectly reasonable to think we may not survive a stronger, smarter species.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#88
post #17

> Maybe a useful way to think about what it would be like to coexist in a world that includes intelligences that aren’t human is to consider the fact that we’ve been doing exactly that for long as we’ve existed, because we live among animals. Another analogy that I like is about large institutions / corporations. They are, right now, kind of like AIs. Like Harari says in one of his books, Peugeot co. is an entity tha…

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

> The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1].

'Associated with' is a pretty lose term.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#89
post #59
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

We (humans) have not only survived but thrived. 200,000 annual deaths is just 7% of the 3mil that die each year. More (as a percentage) probably died from access to the best health care 100 or 200 years ago. The fall in birth rates is, IMO, a good thing as the alternative, overpopulation seems like a far scarier specter to me. And to bring it back to AI's, an AI "with a pathological drive to maximize an arbitrary met…

And 'associated with' is pretty weak as far as causality goes. I bet they all also drank water.

Re: Remarks on AI from NZ

#90
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did we survive these entities? By current projections, between 13.9% and 27.6% of all species would be likely to be extinct by 2070 [0]. The USA suffers an estimated 200,000 annual deaths associated with lacking health insurance [1]. Thanks to intense lobbying by private prisons, the US incarceration rate is 6 times that of Canada, despite similar economic development [2]. Sure, the human species is not yet on the br…

> but we are already seeing an unprecedented fall in worldwide birth rates, which shows our social fabric itself is being pulled apart for paperclips People choose to have fewer kids as they get richer, it's not about living conditions like so many people like to claim, otherwise poor people wouldn't be having so many children. Even controlling for high living conditions, like in Scandinavia, people still choose to h…

> otherwise poor people wouldn't be having so many children

Chalking it up to choice seems a bit unfair. I suspect lack of access to birth control probably plays a part.

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