Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
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Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#2Currently I'm considering ideas and want to choose one to work on in the following 6 months. And I found that even though I know ideas don't cost a thing, it's crucial to choose a good and promising one, not just start working on a random idea saying "implementation only matters". It seems to me now, that you can almost never know if your project is a success, but you can often tell, if it's a fail. Thus, increasing your chances.
The bottom line is that posts like that create an illusion that no matter what you do, math will make you rich. This is especially untrue, because with each new random project, I assume, your motivation and desire go level down.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#3Currently I'm considering ideas and want to choose one to work on in the following 6 months. And I found that even though I know ideas don't cost a thing, it's crucial to choose a good and promising one, not just start working on a random idea saying "implementation only matters". It seems to me now, that you can almost never know if your project is a success, but you can often tell, if it's a fail. Thus, increasing…
You should always, obviously, pick the idea that you believe in the most. Both because it's probably the best (assuming you have good judgement) and because it's the one you will be most motivated to work on.
The reason I wrote the post is that I've seen people hanging on to a project long after it was apparent to everyone else that it wouldn't fly. I've made that mistake myself. I don't want others to make the same mistakes I did if it can be avoided.
And math won't necessarily make you rich - but it might improve your chances :-)
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#4I've calculated this too (the same round numbers too: 10%, 10 years).
He doesn't mention that you might learn something from each attempt (if you stay in the same industry).
I think your success is (virtually) inevitable - unless there's something that you must learn that you won't learn.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#5Currently I'm considering ideas and want to choose one to work on in the following 6 months. And I found that even though I know ideas don't cost a thing, it's crucial to choose a good and promising one, not just start working on a random idea saying "implementation only matters". It seems to me now, that you can almost never know if your project is a success, but you can often tell, if it's a fail. Thus, increasing…
You should always, obviously, pick the idea that you believe in the most. Both because it's probably the best (assuming you have good judgement) and because it's the one you will be most motivated to work on. The reason I wrote the post is that I've seen people hanging on to a project long after it was apparent to everyone else that it wouldn't fly. I've made that mistake myself. I don't want others to make the same…
your post here is better rational than the other stuff (although it was all well written).
I think it would be very useful to define processes by which entrepreneurs can better determine if they are hanging on too long. Processes that have more depth than just playing with numbers. Perhaps its simply soliciting more critical feedback from others at key points along the path?
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
You should always, obviously, pick the idea that you believe in the most. Both because it's probably the best (assuming you have good judgement) and because it's the one you will be most motivated to work on. The reason I wrote the post is that I've seen people hanging on to a project long after it was apparent to everyone else that it wouldn't fly. I've made that mistake myself. I don't want others to make the same…
your post here is better rational than the other stuff (although it was all well written). I think it would be very useful to define processes by which entrepreneurs can better determine if they are hanging on too long. Processes that have more depth than just playing with numbers. Perhaps its simply soliciting more critical feedback from others at key points along the path?
It's a very interesting thought. The problem may be that there aren't really anyone in the vicinity of entrepreneurs that have an interest in saying that it probably won't work out: Investors lose their money, partners lose their partnerships, etc. And friends often tell you you're doing great in an attempt to spur you on.
It might be possible to set up some system that you can judge yourself by. Maybe a quiz that you can take every month that is developed by psychologists, entrepreneurs, and VC's with questions on your progress, motivation, financials, etc. Your score reflects your chances of success, and you can track it from month to month. That way you will see more clearly whether things are going well or to hell. It would be like with small children: If they are your own you don't notice how quickly they grow because you see them every day. People that only see them every month notice right away.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#7Implying that 10 year's work on a project doesn't increase your odds in the slightest over 1 year's work seems implausible, and it's easy to draw the obvious conclusion - why spend a year on anything? Why not a month, or even a day? Then you get 3650 (+ a couple more for leap years) ideas to try.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#8Implying that 10 year's work on a project doesn't increase your odds in the slightest over 1 year's work seems implausible, and it's easy to draw the obvious conclusion - why spend a year on anything? Why not a month, or even a day? Then you get 3650 (+ a couple more for leap years) ideas to try.
Of course spending ten years on a project increases your chances of success, but that's missing the point. What is interesting is that it has to increase by 1000% in relation to starting ten projects in ten years.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#9From the great book "Founders at Work", I had the impression that a common point of success is to persue an idea to a very end, to fully understand its potential, to not accept failure too early, but to accept to modify and even transform it. The model that suggests "Restart with another idea until one works" may therefore lead to abandon projects as failures that are on the way to success.
Re: Why you should fail early and fail often - the numbers
#10Implying that 10 year's work on a project doesn't increase your odds in the slightest over 1 year's work seems implausible, and it's easy to draw the obvious conclusion - why spend a year on anything? Why not a month, or even a day? Then you get 3650 (+ a couple more for leap years) ideas to try.
Of course spending ten years on a project increases your chances of success, but that's missing the point. What is interesting is that it has to increase by 1000% in relation to starting ten projects in ten years.
I don't think it's missing the point. I brought up the extreme example of switching every day to show that the math is specious.