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New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

phys.org

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Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#41

Post by decimalenough »

The article casually mentions a "notorious" 775 AD event which I'd never heard about (insert relevant XKCD here), so here's Wikipedia:

The event of 774 had no significant consequences for life on Earth, but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spik...

Interestingly, the identification of the cause of the 775 AD event with a huge solar flare came from the same researchers as this story.

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#43

Post by decimalenough »

sneak wrote: post #7

> The findings revise our understanding of solar physics and space weather extremes. "This event establishes a new worst-case scenario," Golubenko notes. "Understanding its scale is critical for evaluating the risks posed by future solar storms to modern infrastructure like satellites, power grids, and communication systems." …then proceeds to not explain anything about what that new, data-supported worst case scenar…

The story is about scientists establishing that over 10,000 years ago, there was a spike in carbon-14 production that's higher than anything previous recorded. Figuring this out was already complicated enough (see actual study below), but going from that into modelling what kind of flare could have produced this is a whole new level of speculation.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X2...

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#44

Post by thrdbndndn »

rubitxxx6 wrote: post #20

> This event establishes a new worst-case scenario This person’s definition of “worst-case scenario” is much different than mine. We don’t know with certainty what the universe will throw at us. We just do the very best we sensibly can. Why should we assume that the worst thing that could happen to us happened within the past 20K years?

I honestly don't understand what you're trying to say, even from a semantic standpoint.

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#47

Post by zwnow »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #45

I hope it doesn't take so long to happen again that we have nobody around who remembers how to fix what it breaks. If so it'll be back to the stone ages for humanity.

Yea billions of dead people. What a thing to hope for.

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#48

Post by jstanley »

coolcase wrote: post #35
otherayden wrote: post #4

Just 5 years away from being 12345

It's a Fibonacci sequence number of decades though Just think: number of earth revolutions between this event and now minus the number of earth revolutions since Jesus Christ divided by number of fingers and thumbs on a human written out in base (number of fingers and thumbs on a human) is a sequence where each digit is the sum of the previous two digits. What are the chances?

For your specific case: maybe 1 in 10000. Or 1 in 5000 because "11230" would fit just as well.

So about 13 bits of improbability.

But your hypothesis took a lot more than 13 bits to encode! It would be better compressed to say "Just think: 12350. What are the chances?"

That an elaborate explanation can be found to fit a number is not that surprising when you consider how many possible elaborate explanations there are.

See also https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/05/the-pyramid-and-the-ga...

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#49

Post by bee_rider »

decimalenough wrote: post #41

The article casually mentions a "notorious" 775 AD event which I'd never heard about (insert relevant XKCD here), so here's Wikipedia: The event of 774 had no significant consequences for life on Earth, but had it happened in modern times, it might have produced catastrophic damage to modern technology, particularly to communication and space-borne navigation systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_car…

Not a single telegraph wire was operational, in the wake of the 775 AD event.

Re: New research reveals the strongest solar event ever detected, in 12350 BC

#50

Post by alex-robbins »

__MatrixMan__ wrote: post #45

I hope it doesn't take so long to happen again that we have nobody around who remembers how to fix what it breaks. If so it'll be back to the stone ages for humanity.

You think that the farther in the future you go, the less likely it is that any existing population will know how to fix what breaks? That strikes me as oddly pessimistic, and frankly unlikely.
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