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The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

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Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are capable of looking past their nose, and I've never claimed the outcome will be mass starvation or a doomed civilization. Societies will just have to change, in a way that is without precedent. And I think you are being playful, but it's worth remembering that the second derivative of position is what kills you in a car accident, and the third derivative gives you whiplash. We also just had an election wher…

The comment I responded to said "displacements of whole populations, mass-starvation, and likely brutal war."

True. And I agree with it in terms of cardinality (bad stuff incoming), just not magnitude.

The starvation thing that appears throughout this larger thread is exceptionally odd to me, how does a planet where food is mostly harvested mechanically, encounter food shortages in the face of decreased population? Even if the labor force plummets, the machines sow, tend, and harvest most of the food, and the amount of required food is also going to down as the population does.

Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Kids (…) are unnecessary for a fulfilling life, so this outcome should not be surprising. Unnecessary in a material existential sense, perhaps, when one exludes a systemic need to take care of the elderly. One could argue, however, that the responsibility when taking care of kids are one of the few means to live and grow as a human being.

Adopt. There are ~400k kids in foster care in the US alone, half of which are adoptable. There are plenty of humans already existing who need care.

This ignores the level of issues that most kids in foster care are suffering. People want a healthy child to start with. Most children in foster care are deeply afflicted and have deep traumas that will never be resolved by any new parental figure.

Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adopt. There are ~400k kids in foster care in the US alone, half of which are adoptable. There are plenty of humans already existing who need care.

This ignores the level of issues that most kids in foster care are suffering. People want a healthy child to start with. Most children in foster care are deeply afflicted and have deep traumas that will never be resolved by any new parental figure.

Humans are selfish, broadly speaking, there is no solution for that.

Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#224

In canada, aged 20-29, 46% were still living with their parents. If you live in a big city like toronto, the number is way higher. Kids living at home aren't saying "I still live in my parent's basement" "oh, lets have a baby!" this really is the depth of the issue. Confidence isn't going to have you change this answer.

Children in overpopulated countries like India have been living with their parents for generations. Now that children are leaving the house in those countries, the growth rate is decreasing. I doubt living with parents is affecting reproduction. People don't want kids for mysterious reasons that we have yet to discover.

> People don't want kids for mysterious reasons that we have yet to discover.

It's the liberation of women, we can all stop now guys it's directly correlated with women's rights.

Turns out if you just give women more of a choice over having kids then a lot of them say "uh... no thanks".

Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#225
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a large part of humanity will cease to be able to add significant (economic) value Which, of course, is our "special purpose" in life. Why would people even exist if they weren't going to contribute to shareholder value? I completely agree that more people is not good, but for completely different reasons: there are WAY too many already. Our primate species has so overpopulated the planet that every single "environ…

> Which, of course, is our "special purpose" in life. I didn't say that. But the reality is that people who add no economic value are a problem for our societies as they are structured today. But yes, overpopulation is also an issue with regard to pressure on the environment. Something to think about instead of more or fewer humans is: what would be the ideal number of humans (at various points in the future)? It str…

Thanks for replying. Sorry, I ended up typing a small chapter 8-/

> people who add no economic value are a problem for our societies as they are structured today.

There's no denying that, I think it's a pretty balanced statement, but a lot of people would point the finger at "as they are structured today".

The fact is, tech advances have been disrupting established social patterns of providing "economic value" from the beginning. And while the Luddites might be pointed to as an example that the world marches on, they actually do serve as a very good example of how the world marches on, with ownership reaping a bigger piece of the economic pie, and labor reaping less.

Working people have been increasingly disadvantaged by tech advances in pretty much every single case, from the beginning of tech advances.

Inequality is on a scale with all time record highs at this point, and tech is being applied to fields never approached before.

So, it's also reality that fewer and fewer people are needed to operate society.

There are already too many people, and fewer and fewer are able to provide "economic value" (the statement of which is silent on who receives that economic value, because it's assumed that it's not value until it's received by ownership. This is just by definition).

One natural consequence we're seeing of this, is that fewer people want to have kids.

Everyone should be happy about this. It means the economic value can be spread more densely while leaving fewer people lacking, and we obtain a greater ability to continue generating economic value into the future. Because the "trashing the planet" consequences are not a joke, even though the owners of the world's largest wealth are treating them that way.

We don't need eugenics, all we have to do is facilitate the already existing population declines, which again, is the opposite of what ownership is trying to do. It's all a panic because the ponzi scheme is going to implode.

1 billion people on the planet would be plenty... Why is that so hard to believe? Why is that so impossible to accomplish?

For all the brilliant advances and innovation that the world's wealth holders are supposed to be "creating", to me they seem pretty cluelessly unable to grasp even the basic facts in front of them and chart a path forward...

Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think a more humane (and likely more successful) way out of this is to not try to convince the childless to have children at all, but to try to convince those with children to have more. > So, I'll pose this question to HN and see what you all say: If you have kids, why not more? (if you're too old/young, just imagine you're the right age) > I'll go first: We'd both like to have more kids, but we honestly don't h…

My bad about not being more clear here. I was looking for the perspectives of others, not to conclusively answer the question. I thought it would be polite to offer my own first.

Apologies if that came off as rude or something, I wasn’t trying for that tone at all. I meant what I said more in the sense of “it’s a good question, and in fact you’ve summed up the answer pretty nicely too” :)
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