I'm stuck on the latest gitea (1.22) that still supports migration to forgejo and unsure where to go next. So I've been following both projects (somewhat lazily), and it seems to me that gitea has the edge on feature development.
Forgejo promised — but is yet to deliver any — interesting features like federation; meanwhile the real features they've been shipping are cosmetic changes like being able to set pronouns in your profile (and then another 10 commits to improve that...)
If you judge by very superficial metrics like commit counts, forgejo's count is heavily inflated by merges (which gitea development process doesn't use, preferring rebase), and frequent dependency upgragdes. When you remove that, the remaining commits represent maybe half of gitea's development activity.
So I expect to observe both for another year before deciding on where to upgragde. They're too similar at the moment.
FWIW, one of gitea larger users — Blender — continues to use and sponsor gitea and has no plans to switch AFAIK.