The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
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Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#2This post argues that collapsing birth rates aren’t just about housing or money — they’re a rational response to the sense that the future is unstable, meaningless, or even dangerous. It introduces the concept of “temporal inflation” — the idea that just like money loses value in hyperinflation, time loses value when people can’t trust the future. Would love to hear if this resonates with others.
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#3In canada, aged 20-29, 46% were still living with their parents. If you live in a big city like toronto, the number is way higher.
Kids living at home aren't saying "I still live in my parent's basement"
"oh, lets have a baby!" this really is the depth of the issue. Confidence isn't going to have you change this answer.
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#4In canada, aged 20-29, 46% were still living with their parents. If you live in a big city like toronto, the number is way higher. Kids living at home aren't saying "I still live in my parent's basement" "oh, lets have a baby!" this really is the depth of the issue. Confidence isn't going to have you change this answer.
Not surprised. Housing went up a lot in recent years and it is not affordable for most young people. And if you have to rent, why not rent your parent's?
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#5He is right, if he also stops well short of saying what he might. But "the politicians", as always, are only doing what the people are telling them to. The human species has decided to shut down.
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#6see correlation house affordability vs. birth rates...im sure which one is cause and which one is consequence
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#7In canada, aged 20-29, 46% were still living with their parents. If you live in a big city like toronto, the number is way higher. Kids living at home aren't saying "I still live in my parent's basement" "oh, lets have a baby!" this really is the depth of the issue. Confidence isn't going to have you change this answer.
Not surprised. Housing went up a lot in recent years and it is not affordable for most young people. And if you have to rent, why not rent your parent's?
Housing in the West was basically turned into another pillar of retiree funding. Old people extract tremendous financial gains from younger generations by either a) selling them decrepit real estate at extremely high prices or b) collecting very high rents on buildings that are even older than themselves (even in the US, which is the king of corporate landlording, they are a small minority; most landlords are natural persons, mostly retirees or near-retirees).
It turns out if you do that the living space required to raise the next generation simply becomes inaccessible.
(Another way to look at it - people on new leases will often spend around 30-40% of net income on rent. In most instances this is a direct transfer to a retiree/near-retiree. Taxes, a lot of which also goes towards transfer payments, and other transfer payments to old people, are 40-50% in many countries. Taken together, younger, working people are effectively transferring 2/3rds or more of their gross income to retirees before spending the first cent on themselves. Why would anyone be surprised people are checking out of that system en-masse?)
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#8We certainly aren’t going to do anything about climate change, so any kid born now is going to live to see some rough times.
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#9He is right, if he also stops well short of saying what he might. But "the politicians", as always, are only doing what the people are telling them to. The human species has decided to shut down.
The human species has eight billion people.
If the birthrate is still low when it's four billion, or two billion, I'll start to have concern for the species.
Re: The Future Is Too Expensive – A New Theory on Collapsing Birth Rates
#10Makes me think of Future Shock a little? We've known that cultural and technological change has been accelerating for decades, though. I suppose the question is if there's been an inflection point even in that.