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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

661–670 of 714 posts

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#661
post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What force, though? Israel does something similar, and how much actual pushback (as opposed to sternly worded statements) did it actually get? Even if it were to translate to sanctions, I'm not so sure BJP wouldn't welcome it. "The Fatherland is besieged, let's unite together around Dear Leader and fight back like one" tends to be a very popular take in authoritarian countries for a reason, and it's that much easier…

Dont buy your description of India. Elections matter, BJP can and does lose many elections, India is dependent on oil from Gulf countries, it doesn't have US to shield it from actions which it shouldn't even be doing in the first place, there are much better options against Pakistan etc.

I'm not saying that India is full-on authoritarian today. But it's definitely edging in that direction under BJP, and I could see them embracing the war as their ultimate ticket to get there. I mean, if there is a shooting war with Pakistan, and they can credibly blame Pakistan for starting it, what will it do to BJP electoral standing?

As far as US, under Trump, I'd actually expect it to back Modi.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#662
post #657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What force, though? Israel does something similar, and how much actual pushback (as opposed to sternly worded statements) did it actually get? Even if it were to translate to sanctions, I'm not so sure BJP wouldn't welcome it. "The Fatherland is besieged, let's unite together around Dear Leader and fight back like one" tends to be a very popular take in authoritarian countries for a reason, and it's that much easier…

Dont buy your description of India. Elections matter, BJP can and does lose many elections, India is dependent on oil from Gulf countries, it doesn't have US to shield it from actions which it shouldn't even be doing in the first place, there are much better options against Pakistan etc.

India is also buying oil from Russia - at a discount, or used to - because it is one of the few that could do so openly.

Attacking Pakistan over this also strengthens BJP’s hand and distracts everyone from the complaints that have been eroding their support, like ongoing corruption, high taxes with lower quality of life, etc. etc.

Don’t expect the gulf countries to come to Pakistan’s aid over this, especially if it comes to money. Muslim countries in general like to pretend to be friends, and they certainly talk a big game.

When it comes to actually doing anything though, they just use anything going on as a chance to stab each other in the back. Even when there is a chance for going after ‘the common enemy’ like Israel.

India hasn’t even been close to interesting to any of them since the Mughals. The minority Muslim population in India (about 20%) is also just a little less than Pakistans entire population, and almost half of the entire Middle East’s population, so it’s not like it would be a clean ‘attack the Hindu’s’ type situation anyway.

Also, Indians in general are not particularly warmongering, but this is about as righteous a cause as anyone has been able to come up with for awhile to ‘make someone pay’, is total rage bait for the hardliners/Hindutva contingent and is a good distraction for BJP.

As long as it doesn’t get too expensive, or look like it will escalate to Nuclear war, I’d expect it to go on awhile.

India in general loves to get all worked up about Pakistan (and to a lesser extent Bangladesh, though in that case it’s often about illegal immigrants).

It’s a trope like getting worked up about Cartels and/or ‘the illegals’ from down South in the US.

Source: westerner living in India for awhile now. मैं हिंदी नहीं बोल सकता, but I still get around eh?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#663
post #654
post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it doesn't matter that military responses that have actually been tried in the real world have been counterproductive, because you can imagine other kinds of military responses and you imagine that those kinds of military responses would have gone better?

The French air strikes after the Paris attacks was not an occupation of Syria. There is no inevitable logic for a prolonged occupation.

So maybe say which specific military responses you want to talk about in the first place rather than just saying "the terror attacks in the US or France" and expecting everyone to read your mind.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#664
post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Pakistani military cares about itself, above all. It wants to maintain its role as the primary protector of the Pakistani people, answerable to no one but themselves. As long as the threat of India looms large, their primacy is guaranteed. As a reward generals are allowed to grow filthy rich. Support for the Pakistani military was at its nadir during the era of benign neglect because there wasn't an Indian boogey…

Yes, an outside target can be used to tackle internal strife. But, there is no sign that the Pakistani army is actually in any danger of being removed from power, barring a major military defeat, nor that it will lose its autonomy over military policy. If say, India were to let this slide, the default outcome is another such attack. Given the above motivation of the military to create a conflict and the ideological b…

No, the default outcome is not another attack.

This action guarantees another attack, because it has paid of in the actual PR dividends the ruling forces of both sides desired.

This has zip to do with the citizens, and everything to do with party / power bloc legitimacy.

Winning on economics and good governance is hard.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#665
post #540
post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's as many theories about why Putin and Kremlin did what they did as there are war analyst books on it. Some of them are more right than others, but at the end of the day, if I'm honest, I'm as confused as I was in 2014. Which is a problem not only for my curiosity: if Western policymakers are as confused as me, it's difficult to craft a good policy: we're effectively playing half-court tennis (to quote Sarah C.…

The beauty of destroying invading armies is you don't need to ask a lot of questions about why there are there.

True, though it becomes more nuanced when it's your neighbour-N-times-removed that's getting invaded.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war They have nukes. They don't need to be rich to do massive damage. Sure doing so would have terrible consequences, but cooler heads sometimes don't prevail. Or only prevail after much suffering and pain.

More important ,ever since the multipolar great games resumed , they will have customers for nukes. Trump really was the final nail on deterence reliance ..

Its ok, most of pakistan moved to London anyway so we dont have much to worry about.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#667
post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not going to use nukes. I always wonder at the people who have this idea that states are going to use nukes on a whim. The taboo against the use of nukes is very strong, so strong that I believe nuclear armed nations would rather wage conventional warfare even at great cost, and consider nukes only in the extreme situation where the very survival of the state is seriously threatened (and even then I'm doubtf…

Europe doesn't have the capacity to impose a no-fly zone on Russia. I doubt even US could pull that off. Anyway, the real concern wrt nukes is that they require people in government who are at least marginally sane and care about self-preservation. The problem with countries like Russia and Pakistan is that it's one coup away from being run by people who genuinely believe that they are fighting a holy war against som…

> Europe doesn't have the capacity to impose a no-fly zone on Russia. I doubt even US could pull that off.

I'm not sure about that.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#668

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my worry is the nukes too

[flagged]

I'm not sure Pakistan is comparable to Imperial Japan.

> (Source: [before the inevitable downvotes] am Indian.)

How does that relate to downvotes after saying something like that?

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#669
post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not going to use nukes. I always wonder at the people who have this idea that states are going to use nukes on a whim. The taboo against the use of nukes is very strong, so strong that I believe nuclear armed nations would rather wage conventional warfare even at great cost, and consider nukes only in the extreme situation where the very survival of the state is seriously threatened (and even then I'm doubtf…

Europe doesn't have the capacity to impose a no-fly zone on Russia. I doubt even US could pull that off. Anyway, the real concern wrt nukes is that they require people in government who are at least marginally sane and care about self-preservation. The problem with countries like Russia and Pakistan is that it's one coup away from being run by people who genuinely believe that they are fighting a holy war against som…

IDK Man. There was no institutional power in the US that seemed to make a serious effort when a known international pe*o peddler mysteriously unalived himeself. Somone with direct personal relationships with British Royalty, US Presidents (among other Gov Officials), and some of the richest men in the western world (eg Bill Gates). Apparently terabytes of video tapes gone.

Also note his island has a full on Egyptian Temple on it, and no-one has any idea what's underground.

None of these things are disputed. Sounds pretty Satanic and International to me.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#670
post #629

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am more than happy to believe that 100 Indian jets were shot as long as there's credible evidence. It's war and casualties are expected.

Ask your government to uncensor the Internet and you’ll probably get plenty of credible evidence in addition to the partial confirmation by the French side and anonymous local officials. According to CNN both sides are smart enough to not cross the border so that an undeniable parade of wreckage like the one in 2019 can’t happen this time round.

I live out of India, so that doesn't really impact me.
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