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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

reuters.com

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#221

Post by sofixa »

BLKNSLVR wrote: post #162
nblgbg wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I understand your skepticism, but realistically, I don't see the case. Pakistan is in a very bad situation. The U.S. has cut off a lot of funding over the past decate. They were on the verge of bankruptcy a couple of years ago, and China bailed them out.

New proxy war between US-aligned India and China-supported Pakistan? My understanding is that China and India don't tend to get along politically.

India is not US aligned. They're an independent country with an independent foreign policy, doing whatever makes sense for them.

Buying Russian gas on the cheap, buying French, American, Russian military equipment.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#222

Post by JumpCrisscross »

vesinisa wrote: post #215
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can only edit for a maximum of 2 hours on HN, so not sure how that happened Because in two hours it went from being "mostly overstated," Ukraine being "not economically strong enough to participate in a war" for a long duration and that Russia being "not interested either," to holy shit the mad king is mad.

Ukraine was not and still is not economically strong enough for war. It just suffered an unprovoked invasion by its neighbor and had no option but to either capitulate or fight. I hope I am not biased but it really does not seem comparable to the border situation in Kashmir where both sides are showing aggression towards each other and weighing the costs of going to an all out war.

> Ukraine was not and still is not economically strong enough for war. It just suffered an unprovoked invasion by its neighbor and had no option but to either capitulate or fight

The Western consensus about the outcome of the invasion that of a rout.

> both sides are showing aggression towards each other and weighing the costs of going to an all out war

Outside an Indo-Chinese land war, the only paths for industrial war emerge from New Delhi. Either in reacting to a miscalculation by Islamabad. Or because India's going imperial. The latter would be shockingly like Russia invading China in both scale and capacity to get drawn out by outside backers.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#224

Post by JumpCrisscross »

sandspar wrote: post #183
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ask a random Indian in India whether he'd be willing to die for the US Not how proxy wars work. > India and Pakistan have enough reasons to hate each other. They don't need America or China's goading Not how proxy wars work. The backers enable. The proxies fight. > neither India nor Pakistan would accept their conflict being characterized as a US-China war This is how proxy wars work. They literally don’t if the pr…

[flagged]

I'm really not claiming anything that requires more than a cursory review of the history of proxy wars. Or, like, talking to someone who lives in a country we've recently proxy warred. The people fighting in the wars we proxied were fighting for a domestic cause. Outside powers then glommed onto that dispute. Nobody thought they were dying for the superpowers' ends; they were fighting a local civil war or rebellion or reconquest.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#225

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

FullGarden_S wrote: post #193
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would encourage you to be very skeptical when you hear inflammatory things with vague details like this. If it were true, wouldn’t you have heard which Western media channel it was?

its not a Western media channel. Its NDTV https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WLwHK_22pm0

Neither person in this clip claims or admits that Pakistan directed the 22 April terrorist attack.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#226

Post by JumpCrisscross »

kumarvvr wrote: post #148
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

> Neither side wants peace Really? How do you know. Most Indians don't care about what happens to Pakistan or its people. The moment Pakistan's military stops its terror funding and support activities, India will not care whether it Pakistan lives or dies.

> The moment Pakistan's military stops its terror funding and support activities, India will not care whether it Pakistan lives or dies

I'll entertain this is possible. But it's not only unlikely but irrational so long as Pakistan deepens its ties with China. It's made almost certain by the attitude you're presenting: countries that do "not care whether" their neighbours live or die generally aren't on peaceful terms with them.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#227

Post by dyauspitr »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #192
kumarvvr wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There isn't proof that this terrorist attack was directed by Pakistan Their defense minister admitted to it a few days ago to a Western Media channel.

I don't think that's true, but either way, do you agree at least that the same accusation can be plausibly levied against India's support for terrorist outfits in Pakistan?

No, not at all really.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#228

Post by roenxi »

kumarvvr wrote: post #198
riffraff wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which media outlet? This is a big claim given even after these attacks the Pakistani government claims it didn't.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WLwHK_22pm0

It is hard to figure out what he is saying in that clip; it doesn't have the context that explains what he was actually referring to and the clip jumps in a way suggesting that part of his response was elided.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#229

Post by JumpCrisscross »

alephnerd wrote: post #121
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it.

> Pakistan is definitely more anti-peace than India. But while Islamabad undermines peace, New Delhi is mostly uninterested in it. That's a framing I agree with. > This is not projecting power, it's the UAE (and Qatar) playing their aspirational roles as the new Davos/Switzerland for diplomacy. Sure, but in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both part…

> in India-Pakistan relations, they (UAE and KSA, not Qatar) are increasingly the only mediators with whom both parties can negotiate offramps

Only the most minor ones. Anything significant requires an outside security guarantar.

> Large pole countries don't have the same heft they may have had 15-20 years ago, and even the Russian-Ukraine War has shown that power differentials are not that significant between major powers and regional powers

Russia was trying to replicate America's offensive successes in Afghanistan and Iraq. (What Devereaux calls the modern system [1].) Moscow couldn't even achieve air superiority. (America got supremacy in hours.) Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed that Russia isn't operating a modern, combined-arms military.

Great powers have always overestimated their power. That doesn't mean it's not there at all.

[1] https://acoup.blog/2020/03/20/collections-why-dont-we-use-ch...

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#230

Post by mayama »

alephnerd wrote: post #25
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #23

The bad news: there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indias-water... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_Waters_Treaty Wasn't there something in the intro of "Mad Max fury road" about water wars?

Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT. The only one India is messing with is the Chenab, and only because it messes up Pakistan's Rice and Sugar exports (major forex provider for Pakistan, and the supply chain is heavily owned by Pakistan's MilBus). Kharif sowing season ends in a couple weeks so messing with the Chenab for 3-4 weeks is enough to destroy the rice harve…

> Overstated. There isn't any long term locking capabilities on most rivers under the IWT.

India could build water channel, in style of China's South North water transfer project in less than half decade. Huge dams aren't really needed for just diversion, if India is really serious about it.

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