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India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

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Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#81

Post by sandspar »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65
nblgbg wrote: post #61

I believe it's mostly overstated. Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested either. However, the Modi government wants to project strength. They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. So, they targeted some areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down four Indian air…

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The Pakistan-India conflict is orthogonal to America and China's.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#82

Post by zmgsabst »

aaron695 wrote: post #4

When have two nuclear nations done similar? Ignoring proxy wars and technicalities (NK and USA) Kargil War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War (1999) India and Pakistan The memeification of the current escalation has been talked about a lot. Memes, and we are talking cat memes not the more theoretical abstractions like 10 page whitepapers that become popular, seem more powerful than people expect. I know India…

US military and Russian PMCs exchanged fire in Syria — and I remain skeptical that wasn’t approved by Russian MOD (even though they claimed it wasn’t).

I agree memes seem undervalued.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#83

Post by [deleted] »

mardifoufs wrote: post #58
devsda wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Are you implying that Indian nationalism has nothing to do with 1) its conflicts with Pakistan 2) the entire Kashmiri situation ? Especially with India's current government? Not that Pakistan is any less nationalist, just that claiming that one side is just fighting terror here is a bit crazy. It's ironic since it's a very colonial/British type of rationalization "My side is peaceful and is just fighting terror while…

[deleted]

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#85

Post by bluefirebrand »

ivape wrote: post #80
pokstad wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for stating these forecasts so authoritatively. Or maybe we should admit this is uncharted waters and we shouldn't downplay what is possible?

It's also worth pointing out that whatever nonsense the terrorists were on about will now just get reinforced. You could be talking about a more agitated situation with even more terror attacks. This is how bullshit like this escalates. They should have coordinated with Pakistan to run the strikes. I also thought the Ukraine war wasn't "really" going to happen. Humans will human.

> They should have coordinated with Pakistan to run the strikes.

I think the past 30 years have demonstrated enough that Pakistan is only paying lip service when they denounce attacks like this

At best they don't care, and at worst they sponsor the terrorists directly, but they definitely are not trying to help anyone stop attacks like this or root out their extremists

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#86

Post by alephnerd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #66
alephnerd wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Zero chance. The problem is China As I mentioned previously, the China factor is significant but overstated. And I'm fairly hawkish about China. UAE and KSA have equally as much if not more leverage on Pakistani elite than China. Majority of Pakistan's trade is devoted to the UAE and KSA, and most leadership (military, political, and business) has family and financial relations in both countries. In addition, the U…

Nobody is threatening to topple Islamabad. UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes. The relevant players are in Beijing and Washington. > India and Pakistan can normalize relations, and sincere attempts have been made by both sides, but inter-factional competition amongst Pakistan's elite has undermined it India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a pe…

> UAE and KSA have interests, but insufficient influence to force outcomes

2019 is a good example of UAE using it's heft [0][1]. In a couple years we'll probably see leaks in Bloomberg or AJ about KSA doing something similar rn.

> India has less motivation for war. But it’s also done nothing to negotiate a peace.

Both have worked on reconciliation immediately before some incident arises that causes talks to collapse.

For example, the last couple months before this incident happened [2], in 2021 thanks to the UAE [1][3] before Bajwa-IK-Munir's tussle, 2017-18 before Balakot according to Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy [4], and 2016 before the Pathankot Attack [5].

In most cases, both attempts are made at negotiating normalization, but some faction attempts to undermine it.

And there were multiple other examples before the Modi admin, at least 2-3 other attempts in the MMS-Musharraf admin and 1 attempt in the Vajpayee-Sharif admin, but they were all undermined by some faction in the Pak Armed forces.

I'd recommend reading "The Spy Chronicles" by AS Dulat (former head of India's intel agency) and Asad Durrani (former head of Pakistan's intel agency) where they decided to leak a number of these incidents. The book ended up causing a major political scandal in both India and Pakistan.

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-28/india-...

[1] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2417903/gen-bajwas-india-peace-...

[2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2460279/fm-says-govt-to-serious...

[3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-22/secret-in...

[4] - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14799855.2019.16...

[5] - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35240272

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#87

Post by mardifoufs »

devsda wrote: post #76
mardifoufs wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you implying that Indian nationalism has nothing to do with 1) its conflicts with Pakistan 2) the entire Kashmiri situation ? Especially with India's current government? Not that Pakistan is any less nationalist, just that claiming that one side is just fighting terror here is a bit crazy. It's ironic since it's a very colonial/British type of rationalization "My side is peaceful and is just fighting terror while…

[flagged]

Are your sources mostly Indian sources? Do you think those are somehow less biased than whatever sources I use?

Also you can check my post history if you really want to, I always call out "we are just fighting terror" arguments.

But still, I hope you realize that what India sees as terrorism in this case (which means Kashmiri separatism, which again I agree is mostly a Pakistani funded thing) is very tied to Indian nationalism.

Obviously the Kashmir is used by Pakistan as a way to destabilize its opponent (they don't particularly care about Kashmiri emancipation lol). But India would never recognize any form of separatism (peaceful or violent) from the Kashmir anyways, and will label it as terrorism anyways regardless. Just like the British did to justify putting down any rebellion in the British Raj for example.

Now, India has obvious the right to protect its national integrity but it still makes said war against terror incredibly nationalistic, since terror is (broadly) defined as anything that goes against national unity.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#88

Post by alephnerd »

screye wrote: post #79
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is some real potential for escalation due to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty Neither side wants peace. But neither side wants to commit military manoeuvre that secures strategic aims. So we get this defence sale wet dream of a forever war instead.

India wants peace. A peaceful India threatens Pakistan's entire existence as a military state. Therefore, Pakistan keeps instigating with outrageously cruel terrorist attacks. There are no strategic goals here. Either side may recover some vantage points high up in the Himalayas. But that's about it.

> A peaceful India threatens Pakistan's entire existence as a military state

Pakistani Military leadership has attempted to negotiate normalized relations as well. The issue is someone in their lower ranks or on the political front tries to take advantage of normalization attempts to overthrow the previous leader. I documented a number of cases that happened this past decade below.

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#89

Post by slt2021 »

sandspar wrote: post #81
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The Pakistan-India conflict is orthogonal to America and China's.

It is useful for the US to isolate China from Iranian oil resources. Currently Iranian oil can go via Pakistan to China.

Thats how Us operates: exploits old conflicts for its own immediate benefit, like it did with Ukr-Rus war.

If some people die on both side it is acceptable for the Us, because these are not Us citizens dying

Re: India launches attack on 9 sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Jammu and Kashmir

#90

Post by postingawayonhn »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #65
nblgbg wrote: post #61

I believe it's mostly overstated. Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested either. However, the Modi government wants to project strength. They were unable to locate the terrorists even after two or three weeks and needed a distraction. So, they targeted some areas in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down four Indian air…

> Pakistan is not economically strong enough to participate in a war, and India is not interested Proxy war between U.S. and China. We’re moving the naval assets that were bombing the Houthis. India seizing Pakistan-administered Kashmir cuts Islamabad off from China.

The US isn't interested in picking sides. Historically it has tried to be friendly with both (though that hasn't always been easy).
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