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Evolving OpenAI's Structure

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Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#391

Post by KHRZ »

henryfjordan wrote: post #370
dr_dshiv wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-... Here is a mainstream opinion about why AGI is already here. Written by one of the authors the most widely read AI textbook: Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence:_A_Mod...

Why does the Author choose to ignore the "General" in AGI? Can ChatGPT drive a car? No, we have specialized models for driving vs generating text vs image vs video etc etc. Maybe ChatGPT could pass a high school chemistry test but it certainly couldn't complete the lab exercises. What we've built is a really cool "Algorithm for indexing generalized data", so you can train that Driving model very similarly to how you…

You can literally today prompt ChatGPT with API instructions to drive a car, then feed it images of a car's window outlooks and have it generate commands for the car (JSON schema restricted structured commands if you like). Text can represent any data thus yes, it is general.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#392

Post by [deleted] »

brookst wrote: post #378
henryfjordan wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the Author choose to ignore the "General" in AGI? Can ChatGPT drive a car? No, we have specialized models for driving vs generating text vs image vs video etc etc. Maybe ChatGPT could pass a high school chemistry test but it certainly couldn't complete the lab exercises. What we've built is a really cool "Algorithm for indexing generalized data", so you can train that Driving model very similarly to how you…

There are people who can’t drive cars. Are they not general intelligence? I think we need to separate the thinking part of intelligence from tool usage. Not everyone can use every tool at a high level of expertise.

[deleted]

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#393

Post by celdon25 »

henryfjordan wrote: post #370
dr_dshiv wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-... Here is a mainstream opinion about why AGI is already here. Written by one of the authors the most widely read AI textbook: Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence:_A_Mod...

Why does the Author choose to ignore the "General" in AGI? Can ChatGPT drive a car? No, we have specialized models for driving vs generating text vs image vs video etc etc. Maybe ChatGPT could pass a high school chemistry test but it certainly couldn't complete the lab exercises. What we've built is a really cool "Algorithm for indexing generalized data", so you can train that Driving model very similarly to how you…

Text can be a carrier for any type of signal. The problem gets reduced to that of an interface definition. It’s probably not going to be ideal for driving cars, but if the latency, signal quality, and accuracy is within acceptable constraints, what else is stopping it?

This doesn’t imply that it’s ideal for driving cars, but to say that it’s not capable of driving general intelligence is incorrect in my view.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#394

Post by aeternum »

lanthissa wrote: post #65
atlasunshrugged wrote: post #13

I think this is one of the most interesting lines as it basically directly implies that leadership thinks this won't be a winner take all market: > Instead of our current complex capped-profit structure—which made sense when it looked like there might be one dominant AGI effort but doesn’t in a world of many great AGI companies—we are moving to a normal capital structure where everyone has stock. This is not a sale,…

AGI can't really be a winner take all market. The 'reward' for general intelligence is infinite as a monopoly and it accelerates productivity. Not only is there infinite incentive to compete, but theres decreasing costs to. The only world in which AGI is winner take all is a world in which it is extremely controlled to the point at which the public cant query it.

Remember however that their charter specifies: "If a value-aligned, safety-conscious project comes close to building AGI before we do, we commit to stop competing with and start assisting this project"

It does have some weasel words around value-aligned and safety-conscious which they can always argue but this could get interesting because they've basically agreed not to compete. A fairly insane thing to do in retrospect.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#395

Post by lossolo »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #354
Night_Thastus wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing OpenAI is doing, or ever has done, has been close to AGI.

https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-... Here is a mainstream opinion about why AGI is already here. Written by one of the authors the most widely read AI textbook: Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence:_A_Mod...

> AGI is already here

Last time I checked, in an Anthropic paper, they asked the model to count something. They examined the logits and a graph showing how it arrived at the answer. Then they asked the model to explain its reasoning, and it gave a completely different explanation, because that was the most statistically probable response to the question. Does that seem like AGI to you?

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#396

Post by [deleted] »

aeternum wrote: post #394
lanthissa wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI can't really be a winner take all market. The 'reward' for general intelligence is infinite as a monopoly and it accelerates productivity. Not only is there infinite incentive to compete, but theres decreasing costs to. The only world in which AGI is winner take all is a world in which it is extremely controlled to the point at which the public cant query it.

Remember however that their charter specifies: "If a value-aligned, safety-conscious project comes close to building AGI before we do, we commit to stop competing with and start assisting this project" It does have some weasel words around value-aligned and safety-conscious which they can always argue but this could get interesting because they've basically agreed not to compete. A fairly insane thing to do in retros…

[deleted]

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#397

Post by threeseed »

KHRZ wrote: post #391
henryfjordan wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the Author choose to ignore the "General" in AGI? Can ChatGPT drive a car? No, we have specialized models for driving vs generating text vs image vs video etc etc. Maybe ChatGPT could pass a high school chemistry test but it certainly couldn't complete the lab exercises. What we've built is a really cool "Algorithm for indexing generalized data", so you can train that Driving model very similarly to how you…

You can literally today prompt ChatGPT with API instructions to drive a car, then feed it images of a car's window outlooks and have it generate commands for the car (JSON schema restricted structured commands if you like). Text can represent any data thus yes, it is general.

> JSON schema restricted structured commands if you like

How about we have ChatGPT start with a simple task like reliably generating JSON schema when asked to.

Hint: it will fail.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#398

Post by ben_w »

dom96 wrote: post #242
voidspark wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AGI would mean something which doesn't need direction or guidance to do anything There can be levels of AGI. Google DeepMind have proposed a framework that would classify ChatGPT as "Emerging AGI". ChatGPT can solve problems that it was not explicitly trained to solve, across a vast number of problem domains. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.02462 The paper is summarized here https://venturebeat.com/ai/here-is-how-far-we…

This constant redefinition of what AGI means is really tiring. Until an AI has agency, it is nothing but a fancy search engine/auto completer.

Unless you can define "agency", you're opening yourself to being called nothing more than a fancy chemical reaction.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#399

Post by kmacdough »

caseyy wrote: post #287
roflmaostc wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to get things right. The big AI LLM hype started end of 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, DALL-E 2, .... Most people in society connect AI directly to ChatGPT and hence OpenAI. And there has been a lot of progress in image generation, video generation, ... So I think your timeline and views are slightly off.

> Just to get things right. The big AI LLM hype started end of 2022 with the launch of ChatGPT, DALL-E 2, .... GPT-2 was released in 2019, GPT-3 in 2020. I'd say 2020 is significant because that's when people seriously considered the Turing test passed reliably for the first time. But for the sake of this argument, it hardly matters what date years back we choose. There's been enough time since then to see the platea…

>In the big picture, I think there aren't many hockey sticks/exponentials left in LLMs to discover. That is not true about other AI/ML.

We do appear to be hitting a cap on the current generation of auto-regressive LLMs, but this isn't a surprise to anyone on the frontier. The leaked conversations between Ilya, Sam and Elon from the early OpenAI days acknowledge they didn't have a clue as to architecture, only that scale was the key to making experiments even possible. No one expected this generation of LLMs to make it nearly this far. There's a general feeling of "quiet before the storm" in the industry, in anticipation of an architecture/training breakthrough, with a focus on more agentic, RL-centric training methods. But it's going to take a while for anyone to prove out an architecture sufficiently, train it at scale to be competitive with SOTA LLMs and perform enough post training, validation and red-teamint to be comfortable releasing to the public.

Current LLMs are years and hundreds of millions of dollars of training in. That's a very high bar for a new architecture, even if it significantly improves on LLMs.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#400

Post by parliament32 »

jjani wrote: post #107

SamA is in a hurry because he's set to lose the race. We're at peak valuation and he needs to convert something now . If the entrenched giants (Google, Microsoft and Apple) catch up - and Google 100% has, if not surpassed - they have a thousand levers to pull and OpenAI is done for. Microsoft has realized this, hence why they're breaking up with them - Google and Anthropic have shown they don't need OpenAI. Galaxy ph…

Agreed on Google dominance. Gemini models from this year are significantly more helpful than anything from OAI.. and they're being handed out for free to anyone with a Google account.
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