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Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

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Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#101

Post by o11c »

recursivedoubts wrote: post #56
EvanAnderson wrote: post #32

There's also a trial of "platooning" of driverless trucks on I-70 in Ohio and Indiana: https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbishop1/2025/04/24/ease-... A "drivered" lead truck is leading one or more driverless trucks in this case. I drive the stretch of highway these trucks are on fairly regularly. I don't know that I've seen a group of them yet but I'm keeping my eye out. I'm probably just showing my age, but I like…

next level would be to hook these "platoons" together physically and then centralize the propulsion in a super efficient package. And then we could move them off the highways and onto specialized "tracks" that guarantee they don't deviate from the planned routes. speculative, alien technology, admittedly, but some day our scientists will figure it out i bet!

The problem with railroad is exactly the other side of this: that you can't trivially and automatically detach a single car at any point. I know businesses that literally have an old railroad branch line right up to their door, but they can't actually order anything meaningful via rail.

The existing rail system has at least the following constraints:

* Uses steel-on-steel friction, rather than rubber-on-rock. Cars that can do both exist but are rare.

* Can only travel on the specially-prepared rails, not installed at the last-mile, related to the next point.

* Poor cornering and elevation changing.

* Difficulty in changing speeds (over a thousand meters and over a minute, compare to about a hundred meters and less than ten seconds for road vehicles)

* Very limited lanes, usually no passing. Track reservations will be voided if you aren't exactly on schedule.

* Almost all of the "intelligence" (both computer and human) is at one or both ends; the cars in the middle are all "dumb".

Which of these can reasonably be changed?

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#102

Post by ben_w »

lewdev wrote: post #28
meta_ai_x wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how any of this works. Automation like FSD will lead to cheaper shipping costs via trucks leading to more Trucks on the road and more needing to load/unload and manage last mile logistics and driving routes that can't be automated resulting in ... more trucking jobs, more loading/unloading jobs, more FSD operations jobs, more truck repair jobs, more software engineering jobs

This reminds me of how ATMs created more banking jobs because people started to use the bank more along with ATMs. ATMs handled the simple transactions and tellers dealt with the more complex tasks. We'll see. There will be a loss of little industries that depended on truckers though, like truck stops and inns. I also hope that this results in more jobs that are fulfilling.

Initially, then it reversed.

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#103

Post by dboreham »

anigbrowl wrote: post #92
usrusr wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is those railroad cars usually don't share origin and destination. And spending a day or two on the switchyard for every couple of hours of actual travel isn't what customers want. The beaty of platooning is that trucks can join and leave while traveling at speed, all they need is a free lane on the side. And if you really want to tease out all the efficiencies of rail, without suffering the drawbacks, you ma…

switchyard Why not just use container cranes like docks? There's no reason they won't work inland.

And indeed they exist every 200 miles or so.

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#104

Post by o11c »

tcmart14 wrote: post #81
robocat wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure governments learn by seeing the mistakes of other governments. But consecutive New Zealand governments have made some big mistakes. Capitalist party sold the national rail to an Australian company because rail was inefficient and costing a ton. Privately run cut back staff significantly. A few years later the story was that that was failing privately run, so the socialist party bought it back at exhorbit…

Dumb American, so I could be totally off base. But New Zealand appears small enough on the map that just doing a shit ton of barges along defined coastal water routes makes a lot more sense than trains. In the US trains could be efficient, but we are also like 2,500 miles coast to coast.

The problem with water travel in New Zealand is that weather often closes ports.

But it is true that NZ lacks the scale that many existing rail systems rely on, and also lacks high-speed roads (a good rule of thumb for driving anywhere in NZ is: look at how many miles it is on the map, calculate how fast you could go that far in America, then double the time).

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#105

Post by sien »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #97
supportengineer wrote: post #87

In America, we are willing to do anything to avoid expanding or upgrading our rail infrastructure.

The biggest problems with American rail infrastructure are related to passenger service. The US has one of the largest freight rail systems in the world by whatever metric you want to use: total miles (#1), annual tonnage (#2), ton mileage (#3) or modal share (#7). In any case, semis occupy a largely separate mode of transportation that aren't cost competitive with freight rail where it's viable. Autonomous semis are…

To reinforce this, an article about how the US has a world leading freight rail system.

https://www.marketurbanist.com/blog/why-americas-freight-tra...

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#107

Post by porphyra »

ok_dad wrote: post #96
mike_d wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the solution isn't to pay more. We shouldn't be trying to figure out ways to get more people into shitty hazardous jobs. You don't "pay more" to get more young people and women to apply to moving spent nuclear fuel, you give the job to the robots.

I think most people agree on that point, but what are truckers going to do after they lose jobs to the robots? In the USA, there is never any planning for that, they just say "oh well" and in a generation those folks die out, having lived a shitty, destitute life with no chance of recovery.

The fact that there are too few younger truck drivers means that most young people have already found higher paying, better jobs than current truck driving jobs.

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#108

Post by StanislavPetrov »

meta_ai_x wrote: post #22
lenerdenator wrote: post #5

Hmmmmm. So we're going to have a lot of people potentially unemployed because of this...

That's not how any of this works. Automation like FSD will lead to cheaper shipping costs via trucks leading to more Trucks on the road and more needing to load/unload and manage last mile logistics and driving routes that can't be automated resulting in ... more trucking jobs, more loading/unloading jobs, more FSD operations jobs, more truck repair jobs, more software engineering jobs

Sounds like the logic that was used to sell NAFTA/GATT and led to a generation of jobless workers and gutted cities across the country.

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#109

Post by kristopolous »

ok_dad wrote: post #96
mike_d wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No the solution isn't to pay more. We shouldn't be trying to figure out ways to get more people into shitty hazardous jobs. You don't "pay more" to get more young people and women to apply to moving spent nuclear fuel, you give the job to the robots.

I think most people agree on that point, but what are truckers going to do after they lose jobs to the robots? In the USA, there is never any planning for that, they just say "oh well" and in a generation those folks die out, having lived a shitty, destitute life with no chance of recovery.

There's an ideological assertion when automation happens: the workers will retrain and be better off.

If it was true, Youngstown Ohio and Flint Michigan would be jewels of the Midwest - bustling metropolises of highly skilled retrained workers in wondrous utopias. You'd have AI unicorns popping out of Huntington and Wheeling, West Virginia.

Whether you count number of bankruptcies, overall mortality rate, number of offspring, percentage that own versus rent... The fervent assertion that going from a union job to hustling for say Postmates, is somehow the rising tide lifting all boats is baseless.

Doesn't matter though. It's ideologically, not materially based so evidence is irrelevant.

There Are state interventionist ways to make it work. China moved from agrarian to industrial. South Korea, Taiwan Japan.... The difference is they don't have this pentacostal snake handling level blind faith in the free market where they go around like Peter Popof preaching Hayek and Rothbard like it's sacred scripture.

Re: Driverless semis have started running regular longhaul routes

#110

Post by anigbrowl »

mulmen wrote: post #73
somethoughts wrote: post #30

I feel like the ideal scenario would be to prioritize self driving truck at set times and set long haul freeways (i.e. Long Beach to Las Vegas or Galveston to Dallas) during the night time when there is no regular auto traffic - for example from 1 am-6 am. That way if a human driver is concerned, they can choose not to drive during this period of time. Perhaps run the trucks in a train style configuration where a "co…

> I feel like the ideal scenario would be to prioritize self driving truck at set times and set long haul freeways (i.e. Long Beach to Las Vegas or Galveston to Dallas) during the night time when there is no regular auto traffic - for example from 1 am-6 am. But why though? These trucks will be safer than humans at the wheel. The most dangerous thing on the road will continue to be the humans driving next to the truc…

What stops highway robbery today?

Logistics. Unless you know exactly what's in the cargo, it's probably not wortht he effort because you might get a load of toilet paper. Also getting your ill-gotten gains away from the scene is going to be a lot of work, how much stuff are you going to be able to unload before the cops show up and how many vehicles will you need to get it? You'd be better off stealing the truck itself.

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