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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#661

Post by fnordpiglet »

ethbr1 wrote: post #594
fnordpiglet wrote: post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mostly because everyone has benefited so much from the world order as it exists that no one really wants to lose it other than some fringe wackos. China definitely is a huge winner in the current world construction, Europe as well. The only losers are those that actively fight it - Russia, North Korea, and Iran. I think very few countries really see global domination through conquest as a legitimate goal, and the dom…

> beyond Taiwan and the south China seas That's a pretty big caveat. To frame the question another way -- which does China want more, an international rules based order or Taiwan and nine dashes of maritime territory?

I think sadly we are at a damage control point. They probably assume they can have both. They probably can.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#662

Post by mstaoru »

bluGill wrote: post #314
mstaoru wrote: post #107

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

The Suez canal is very much affecting anyone in the EU and has for a lot longer than Trump has been in office. Almost no ships have been going that way since early/mid last year, preferring to go the more expensive/long way around Africa instead.

Well, I had two quotes: one right before the tariffs at 22 rmb/kg door to door, and one end of April, at 58 rmb/kg door to door. We shopped around quite a bit, everybody say it's crazy right now.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#663

Post by [deleted] »

bilbo0s wrote: post #103
taylodl wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States has never had such incompetence in governance. Americans aren't accustomed to this degree of ineptness.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will. That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that. Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? It w…

[deleted]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#664

Post by slashdev »

Retric wrote: post #657
slashdev wrote: post #656

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes some sense to me, although the result is surprising. Do have anything you can point to for further reading on the subject?

There’s a few investigations into why Talk Radio became such a Republican dominated market, but I don’t have a good link. They also ignored how NPR fills a similar niche and leans left. But overall I setup a spreadsheet and ran the numbers on viewership vs scores on sites like: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ Fox: FOX: 6.7, CNN -3.7, another site giving them 4 vs -2 etc. Then used numbers from sites like https://www.…

Yeah, that's an interesting way of looking at it. Also I didn't realize Fox dominates so much.

It makes some sense!

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#665

Post by nonethewiser »

bluGill wrote: post #652
nonethewiser wrote: post #649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>While the US is importing less, stuff to the EU is taking the long way around Africa and that means more containers are needed. OK, then the unavailability of containers is actually due to piracy in the middle east. The US importing less, by itself, decreases the demand for containers.

Both of those are factors. There are other factors neither one of us knows about (even if you are in ocean transport - your competitors are doing things they are hiding from you until they happen). How they balance out is not something I know, someone in the field likely has a reasonably good idea despite not knowing everything.

Right, there are a ton of factors. But it would be wrong to suggest that decreased US exports would push container prices up.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#666

Post by r00fus »

Spooky23 wrote: post #525
_xerces_ wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two interesting things I took away from that were first that the uncertainty and constant changes of mind by the President on the actual rates and lack of reliable communications were almost as harmful as the tariffs. Second, that there is a "snowball effect" in that you often have to pre-pay, so you take out more loans at a worse interest rate to make your order and then if because costs went up, you order fewer ite…

It’s why the government needs to curb and heel billionaires. A bunch of techbros who mistake money for smarts pushes an obviously dumb strategy to a pack of populist clowns and grifters. That should not be possible. The kickback from this mania is going to be pretty extreme pain for these clowns.

"needs to" and "should not" are idealistic words.

What will happen is either a collapse of the US economy or a collapse of the Trump administration.

Even if the administration grows a brain and reverses course, we are on course for a COVID-like supply chain shock that will cause major pain. Not to mention the loss of trust that will absolutely depress the needed regrowth.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#667

Post by robomartin »

Zamaamiro wrote: post #467
robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

Kevin O'Leary is not a credentialed economist.

Thankfully one does not have to be a credentialed anything to be right. All you need is to present evidence for anyone to reproduce your claim. A ten year old kid not even out of elementary school could be absolutely correct if the evidence supports what is being claimed.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#668

Post by robomartin »

apercu wrote: post #376
robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

You lost me at Kevin O’Leary. He’s historically been a dishonest and unethical snake oil salesman and I doubt he’s changed. One of my career highlights was having him explain how much it will do for my career to do his project at a discount (I was helping a friend as a favor) and I told Kevin that it was just as likely to have the opposite effect.

> You lost me at Kevin O’Leary.

That's an unreasonable position to take. What matters isn't who says something at all. It's if what the person says is true. And, in Kevin's case, what he is saying is 100% on point and correct.

Aside from personal experience, I have met many entrepreneurs who got shafted by China's approach to business and intellectual property. One of them had to shutter his company barely six months after introducing their first product. The product was successful enough that it got cloned very quickly. They introduced a cloned product at half his price. Orders evaporated. He had to let go of his employees and close the business.

Whether you like it or not, what O'Leary says in his videos is 100% accurate and true. Your experience with him is absolutely irrelevant and not worth discussing.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#669

Post by robomartin »

cduzz wrote: post #334
robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

Whatever your hopes and dreams around domestic manufacturing, blanket tariffs capriciously imposed at random are unlikely to get any dream closer to reality, except perhaps the dream of total devastation of all manufacturing. Let's look at what an actual domestic manufacturer has to say about tariffs[1]? Oh, looks bad! Turns out, manufacturers import stuff, add value to it, and sell it for more money! Hopefully we'll…

> Whatever your hopes and dreams around domestic manufacturing

This isn't about my hopes and dreams, it's about reality. I gave up years ago. I manufacture in China and other places. My take, after suffering the consequences for years, was simple: If my own government does not help me with such things as IP protection, control of currency manipulation, etc., screw it, I'll look after myself and my family. No choice.

So, I sold my manufacturing equipment and got the fuck out. We work with two factories in China and, well, I don't give a shit any more. Sounds horrible, I know, but, as the movie line goes "Mongo small fish in pond of life". This is something for the next generation to figure out...or not...and suffer whatever the consequences might be.

What is always notable is that almost nobody commenting on these kinds of threads know what the fuck they are talking about. A bunch of software engineers playing business person. Not a clue. Go talk to real manufacturing entrepreneurs and see what they say. Until then, you are not at all equipped to understand what's in front of us at all.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#670

Post by SirSavary »

TylerE wrote: post #573
toast0 wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they ef…

The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.

Do you have a source for this? Because from my own experience, and from everything I can find online, this is not true.

Tariffs are based on date of entry: https://www.vedderprice.com/remember-basic-import-rules-when... (see 'Rule 2')

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