New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer • Hacker News Board

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#181

Post by ahahahahah » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:21 PM UTC

Lammy wrote: post #100

returningfory2 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. The existence of a case or some cases where a self-driving car caused injury has zero value. What matters is the rate of cases per mile driven.

> Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. CDC “Underlying Cause of Death” dataset sez https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10-expanded.html https://i.imgur.com/4PB0xyC.jpeg - “Person injured in unspecified motor-vehicle accident, traffic” is the 50th leading cause of death at 0.4% of deaths. - “Person injured in collision between other specified motor vehicles (traffic)” is the 108th leading caus…

It sounds like you are refuting the parent's claim. But those two categories add up to ~110,000 deaths over a 6 year period, which seems like can be reasonably described as 10000s per year.

But, more importantly, you missed a bunch of relevant categories:

V89.2 (Person injured in unspecified motor-vehicle accident, traffic) 80,434

V87.7 (Person injured in collision between other specified motor vehicles (traffic)) 29,982

V09.2 (Pedestrian injured in traffic accident involving other and unspecified motor vehicles) 27,934

V03.1 (Pedestrian injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van, traffic accident) 15,129

V43.5 (Car occupant injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van, driver injured in traffic accident) 9,810

V29.9 (Motorcycle rider [any] injured in unspecified traffic accident) 8,410

V29.4 (Driver injured in collision with other and unspecified motor vehicles in traffic accident) 7,688

V47.5 (Car occupant injured in collision with fixed or stationary object, driver injured in traffic accident) 6,379

V49.9 (Car occupant [any] injured in unspecified traffic accident) 6,349

V23.4 (Motorcycle rider injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van, driver injured in traffic accident) 5,851

V43.6 (Car occupant injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van, passenger injured in traffic accident) 3,728

V27.4 (Motorcycle rider injured in collision with fixed or stationary object, driver injured in traffic accident) 3,504

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#182

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:24 PM UTC

TulliusCicero wrote: post #138

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> those instinctual "decide which way to swerve in a split-second" scenarios that come up maybe once every 10-20 years The correct answer is almost always to hit the brakes. Not to swerve. And Waymo will hit the brakes earlier than you or me.

There was a notable case recently where the Waymo did swerve, to avoid someone who had fallen off a scooter into their lane (video here): https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/1hfvb5o/waymo_visual... Hard to say for certain, but it looks like just braking probably wouldn't have avoided the collision.

I’d argue that’s more straightforward collision avoidance than a swerve since the rider was to the side when Waymo turned. As such, there wasn’t a choice between braking and swerving. One had to do both, and there was no real optionality as to whether to swerve right or left.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#183

Post by m0llusk » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:26 PM UTC

It's a great start, but also shows how driving is not a navigation challenge as much as it is a socialization challenge. If I drove right up to some responders dealing with an emergency and repeatedly refused to stop then I could be in big legal trouble and could end up with fines and possibly an arrest. This has not happened with Waymo vehicles because there is legal ambiguity about who is responsible in such cases. Realistic analysis shows these vehicles have a driving record similar to that of overconfident teens which is worrisome.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#184

Post by FredPret » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:28 PM UTC

lucasrim wrote: post #9

Was genuinely impressed when I took my first Waymo, not only for comfort, but the small microdecisions it made as a driver. As a person whose lost a parent to a sleepy driver, and a victim to 2 texting drivers, I welcome AI driving revolution.

Sorry for your loss. I hope we get road deaths to 0.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#185

Post by Manuel_D » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:29 PM UTC

Lammy wrote: post #116

sollewitt wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fellow SF cyclist: Even setting aside the malicious SF stuff, Waymo's have enormous advantages over humans relying on mirrors and accounting for blindspots. I never have to be concerned a Waymo hasn't seen me. I can't wait until the technology is just standard on cars, and they won't let drivers side-swipe or door cyclists.

> I never have to be concerned a Waymo hasn't seen me. Funnily enough that's exactly why I don't like them. Every time one rolls by me I know that tens of photos of me and even my 3D LIDAR scan get piled in to some fucking Google dataset where it will live forever :/ Their site is even proud of it: https://waymo.com/waymo-driver/ section titled “Keeping an eye on everything, all at once” “The Waymo Driver's perceptio…

Human drivers have dash cams, too. Maybe without as sophisticated a data ingestion system as google, but they could theoretically put their dashcam footage on youtube if they wanted to.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#186

Post by pb7 » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:29 PM UTC

manquer wrote: post #150

xnx wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's good to be skeptical of the source, but I can't remember seeing any substantive criticism of the methodology or conclusions.

Here is one, Humans drive in all weather conditions on all types of roads and also many types of personal vehicles of varying ages and conditions. Waymo is limited to few specific locations with decent roads and does not drive in poor weather and is limited to a relatively large and safer expensive SUV that is maintained professionally in a fleet. Studies like this rarely account for such factors , they are compare o…

Waymos drive in all weather in the cities they're deployed in; cities where people crash all the time in all types of weather.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#187

Post by toast0 » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:30 PM UTC

FridayoLeary wrote: post #111

dheera wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dooring is so incredibly preventable with simple computer vision and some kind of actuator that adds an audible alarm and mechanical 3x resistance to the door opening when a cyclist is detected. The door should still be openable in emergency but should be hard to open until the cyclist passes. (For cars that have both a normally-used electronic door open button and a manual emergency release (e.g. Teslas), the electr…

That would lead to ridiculously overengineered car doors. It's already incredible how such a simple thing like a door can be so unreliable on newer cars, with handles that sink into the doorframe when not in use, or a locking system that only works with battery power. I'm not sure that adding more complexity would be a net benefit for society.

It's already there, my new fancy car has it. Push the lever to open with electronic help, pull the lever twice for mechanical release. The electronic help version checks for safety first (as long as you do it with a timeout from when the car was running/ready) We'll have to see how the fancy car does over time, but I did get one with handles on the outside that don't disappear.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#188

Post by paulnpace » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:32 PM UTC

porphyra wrote: post #174

paulnpace wrote: post #156

While driving a car, it is possible to do something, even on accident, that can land a person in jail. These crimes do not have the option of paying a fine in lieu of prison time. A "self-driving" car can cause the same accident but gain advantages over a human driver that the person ultimately responsible is no longer held to the same set of laws. This seems to undermine foundations of law, placing the owners of tho…

Currently, penalties for, say, killing someone while driving are already incredibly light. * Driver whose vehicle struck and killed girl gets $1,200 fine" [1] * Driver who allegedly struck and killed Staten Island baby charged with $750 fine and 15 days in jail [2] * Driver who hit Jets assistant coach Greg Knapp won't be charged following his death [3] [1] https://vancouversun.com/news/driver-whose-vehicle-struck-an…

These are examples application of law, such as decisions from prosecutors or a judicial system.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#189

Post by Workaccount2 » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:33 PM UTC

manquer wrote: post #150

xnx wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's good to be skeptical of the source, but I can't remember seeing any substantive criticism of the methodology or conclusions.

Here is one, Humans drive in all weather conditions on all types of roads and also many types of personal vehicles of varying ages and conditions. Waymo is limited to few specific locations with decent roads and does not drive in poor weather and is limited to a relatively large and safer expensive SUV that is maintained professionally in a fleet. Studies like this rarely account for such factors , they are compare o…

I am very curious where waymo is at in adverse conditions. Do the cars totally lock up and become useless? Or are they at the level of your 65 year old mother driving in a thunderstorm at night? Passable, but nothing they are gonna put their name on.

Seems they intend to come to Washington D.C. next year, which does get a pretty wide gamut of weather.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#190

Post by netsharc » Thu, May 01, 2025, 9:33 PM UTC

decimalenough wrote: post #170

VOIPThrowaway wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My prediction is that car usage will go thought the roof when AI cars work. People can have a stress-free commute to a nice house in the countryside and work in the cities. Because the car is electric, it will be inexpensive to run.

Waymo can drive cars but it can't magick new roads into existence. If car usage goes through the roof, so will traffic jams.

Probably not, if they're all computer-controlled, and can communicate with each other. I posit traffic jams is mostly caused by idiot and reckless drivers...