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New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

waymo.com

161–170 of 413 posts

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#161

Literally riding in a Waymo right now in Los Angeles. IMO they already won. The amount of stupid things you see people do here while driving is astonishing, so many people are not paying attention and looking at their phones. I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier while the service was identical (silent ride, got me where I needed to go.) I’ve also been stuck in a Waymo that couldn’t figure out its wa…

> I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier To be fair, the fact that Waymos are fancy clean Jaguars is kind of ancillary to the main technology. The tech is currently expensive, so they are targeting the luxury market, which you can also get on Uber if you select a black car or whatever. The people willing to pay for that are less likely to make messes, and the drivers put more effort into frequent clea…

What is 1000% better about Waymo than rideshares is the liveried fleet vehicles.

Regular taxis around here are also liveried fleet vehicles. Especially the very large providers: if I summon a taxi cab, I know for sure its make and model, and its paint job will clearly indicate it's on-duty as a taxi cab. You don't understand how incredibly important this is sometimes.

For the simple yet panic-inducing task of strapping on my seat belt: I can do it in seconds with a liveried vehicle, because I know exactly what to expect. In a rideshare like an Uber, every time a car arrives, it is a new make, new model (I swear to god what the fuck is a "Polestar"???) and the owner might have wrapped on some crazy aftermarket seat covers, and finding the seat belt and its mating latch is a huge drama. I've taken to leaving the passenger seat open, until I can get the belt safely latched, because otherwise the driver will promptly take off, and panic will increase 3x as the vehicle is moving and I can't find the seat belt.

Other than that, the liveried vehicles are easier to maintain; they're easier to keep clean; they're much better for brand recognition. Hallelujah for Waymo!

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#163
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that Waymos can't replace cars (or even Ubers!) since they depend on human oversight and problem-solving. Even at a 20:1 ratio it is not feasible for autonomous vehicles to employ 10m people to account for every American on the road.

The human oversight is mostly to tell off people breaking rules in the cars, not to fix the driving, and is quite easy to automate as they scale.

That might be what human overseers are mostly doing minute-to-minute but it's not why it's necessary. The problem is AI simply does not have the real-world problem solving ability to handle all the minor inconveniences and surprises on the road.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#164
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. The existence of a case or some cases where a self-driving car caused injury has zero value. What matters is the rate of cases per mile driven.

For which any such system must be assumed unsafe until proven safe and the burden of proof lies with the manufacturer to present sound, robust, transparent, third-party audited evidence. You do not get to counter-argue: “What matters is the rate of cases per mile driven” without actually presenting that number with supporting evidence. Otherwise the only sound conclusion is the default presumption of non-safety. In t…

> The burden of proof lies with the manufacturer to present sound, robust, transparent, third-party audited evidence.

Waymo releases its safety data: https://waymo.com/safety/impact/, which is backed by public reporting requirements.

To say that it is wholly insufficient to make any safety claims on publicly driven 50M miles, is ridiculous. At the very least, it appears sound, robust and transparent, and able to be validated.

> https://waymo.com/blog/2024/12/new-swiss-re-study-waymo

Is Swiss Re a valid third party? They also address peer-reviewed and external validation in the above safety impact page.

I can understand being skeptical because of Cruise and especially claims made by Telsa, but there is a preponderance of supporting data for Waymo.

Given all of this evidence, you would still conclude Waymo is unsafe?

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#165
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tens of thousands of Americas are killed every year in car crashes. CDC “Underlying Cause of Death” dataset sez https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10-expanded.html https://i.imgur.com/4PB0xyC.jpeg - “Person injured in unspecified motor-vehicle accident, traffic” is the 50th leading cause of death at 0.4% of deaths. - “Person injured in collision between other specified motor vehicles (traffic)” is the 108th leading caus…

Was your intent to disprove or back up the claims of parent? 0.4% and 0.2% sound low, but make up for ~110,000 deaths. Spread across a 5 year period does indeed equal “tens of thousands” every year.

My intent was to have some real data. Do you only write comments to persuade others? Form your own opinion, because now you have data to inform one.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#166
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fellow SF cyclist: Even setting aside the malicious SF stuff, Waymo's have enormous advantages over humans relying on mirrors and accounting for blindspots. I never have to be concerned a Waymo hasn't seen me. I can't wait until the technology is just standard on cars, and they won't let drivers side-swipe or door cyclists.

> I never have to be concerned a Waymo hasn't seen me. Funnily enough that's exactly why I don't like them. Every time one rolls by me I know that tens of photos of me and even my 3D LIDAR scan get piled in to some fucking Google dataset where it will live forever :/ Their site is even proud of it: https://waymo.com/waymo-driver/ section titled “Keeping an eye on everything, all at once” “The Waymo Driver's perceptio…

Definitely a big privacy concern, especially for people like you who aren't using the technology, and haven't consented to giving your data.

But car crashes are the third highest cause of death in the US (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm). As a society, I think the benefit outweighs the cost in this case, and we can (theoretically) continue to make progress on privacy as a society. Seems like much more of a step forward than a step back to me

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#167

Literally riding in a Waymo right now in Los Angeles. IMO they already won. The amount of stupid things you see people do here while driving is astonishing, so many people are not paying attention and looking at their phones. I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier while the service was identical (silent ride, got me where I needed to go.) I’ve also been stuck in a Waymo that couldn’t figure out its wa…

I considered getting a Waymo once in LA but I found that since it doesn't go on highways, it is incredibly slow, and cost $60 to spend the same 1 hour as riding the E line for my trip. I ended up riding the E line.

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#168

Literally riding in a Waymo right now in Los Angeles. IMO they already won. The amount of stupid things you see people do here while driving is astonishing, so many people are not paying attention and looking at their phones. I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier while the service was identical (silent ride, got me where I needed to go.) I’ve also been stuck in a Waymo that couldn’t figure out its wa…

> I used an Uber on the way here and the car was dirtier To be fair, the fact that Waymos are fancy clean Jaguars is kind of ancillary to the main technology. The tech is currently expensive, so they are targeting the luxury market, which you can also get on Uber if you select a black car or whatever. The people willing to pay for that are less likely to make messes, and the drivers put more effort into frequent clea…

YMMV but for me Waymo is usually significantly cheaper than Uber Black and more comparable to UberX (within a few bucks before taking tip into consideration)

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#169

So, what’s it gonna take for Waymo to start selling retrofit kits for existing cars? If a $10,000 investment reduces the chances of a serious accident by 90%, the corresponding reduction in insurance rates might have a payoff within a few years. Especially if adoption starts to push rates up for customers who don’t automate. I can’t take a taxi everywhere, but I’d sure like it if my car drove me everywhere and did a…

It honestly feels like they spend years validating each new platform, e.g. the Zeekr was announced years ago and only recently are they very rarely seen on the streets but only as Waymo Engineering mules. Likewise the transition from the Chrysler Pacifica to the I-Pace took a while. Hopefully they figure something out to scale up to more platforms soon. They announced a partnership with Hyundai a few years ago, also with nothing to show for it.

Of course, safety first, so they should take their time and not rush things...

Re: New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am also hopeful that Waymo has other positive externalities for bikes/pedestrians: less need for parking spots, car ownership, etc. At the same time, I guess you could say the same for rideshare, so it would depend on if robo-rideshare is cheaper than ownership

My prediction is that car usage will go thought the roof when AI cars work. People can have a stress-free commute to a nice house in the countryside and work in the cities. Because the car is electric, it will be inexpensive to run.

Waymo can drive cars but it can't magick new roads into existence. If car usage goes through the roof, so will traffic jams.
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