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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#631

Post by mjd »

Spooky23 wrote: post #525
_xerces_ wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two interesting things I took away from that were first that the uncertainty and constant changes of mind by the President on the actual rates and lack of reliable communications were almost as harmful as the tariffs. Second, that there is a "snowball effect" in that you often have to pre-pay, so you take out more loans at a worse interest rate to make your order and then if because costs went up, you order fewer ite…

It’s why the government needs to curb and heel billionaires. A bunch of techbros who mistake money for smarts pushes an obviously dumb strategy to a pack of populist clowns and grifters. That should not be possible. The kickback from this mania is going to be pretty extreme pain for these clowns.

They'll blame Joe Biden, immigrants, Democrats, the Woke Mob, DEI, and trans people before they blame themselves.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#633

Post by ben_w »

saagarjha wrote: post #630
anigbrowl wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're an intelligent well educated person so I wonder why you insist on poisoning the well with shallow tropes that you know to be false.

At this point I wonder if it's some sort of engagement farming thing. Surely someone who posts the same stupid stuff every time and gets yelled at it has a reason for doing it? Right?

Despite the ongoing problem of LLMs passing as human (and before that, https://xkcd.com/1019/ etc.), it is entirely possible they're 100% sincere.

First, remember that a lot of people voted for Trump despite all thay he said in the election and all that he did last time around. What he says must resonate with a lot of people, or that would not have happened.

Second, anecdotally, there's someone I used to know back in the UK who was absolutely convinced that Brexit would be a success, to the extent that at one point me simply saying "no" to some claim he made resulted in him shouting "that proves we should do it!" (or similar, it's hard to quote exactly from memory, especially 9 years later). Cambridge graduate, did the maths olympiad in their youth, still acted that way.

And third, it's very easy to get anchored on something that was once true, and not update as the world moves on. When I was a kid, "made in China" or "made in Taiwan" was not a sign of quality, but "made in Japan" was; but one of the films of my youth was Back To The Future, and one if the few things you can allow even fiction to inform you of are cultural beliefs, like 1955 Doc Brown being written to expect "made in Japan" to justify component failure.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#634

Post by mstaoru »

tim333 wrote: post #206
mstaoru wrote: post #107

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

The 2.5-3x higher is probably temporary while people rush to ship stuff before the tariffs. It may get much cheaper shortly.

Good point, but several Chinese freight forwarders say, on the contrary, the shipping lanes are empty. The "ship" costs a fixed amount, if you can make a full load, the cost is shared between parties. With LCL (less-than-container-load), I'm very dependent on the volume.

I've also seen pictures of empty roads to Yantian port circulating on LinkedIn (usually it would be completely jammed during May holidays).

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#635

Post by cduzz »

corimaith wrote: post #625
cduzz wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Balance trade? Trade isn't a single ledger that needs to be in balance. If you read that article about Haas automation, they say that they import cast iron and PCBs, presumably they import some chips and use some domestic chips, they put these all together and sell machine tools (big machines used to make machines, the exact sort of thing that trump et all are banging on about needing to be made in the usa, which las…

>Balance trade? Trade isn't a single ledger that needs to be in balance. By definition, global exports must be matched with global imports to sum to zero, unless if you are trading with aliens. This is basic double-entry accounting and mainstream economics. >Nobody in the USA makes cast iron in the volume needed by haas; nobody in the USA makes PCBs at the price point needed by haas. Nobody's going to be able to star…

Do you have balanced trade with your gas station? With your dentist? The double entry book keeping has to balance after all. Oh, you use money, and each party has their own ledger. Maybe your dentist is taking advantage of you, but it isn't because they never exchange your gasoline for polishing your molars.

Let's go back to a real world example -- a successful machine tool manufacturer in the united states, theoretically the very thing we want (which in fact, I totally agree with -- such companies are important in a huge number of ways).

They import raw or partially finished materials (cast iron, blank or partially assembled PCBs); haas does a bunch of work on these materials, puts it all together and sells the finished product for more than all the raw materials cost to lots of other (typically different) people.

Now, because of blanket tariffs -- on things the US has no interest, capacity, or foundation to build, like cast iron. Nobody's going to make a PCB assembly company or cast iron foundry in the USA to meet this need, it'd take years, the products would be way too expensive, and the only possible market is ... haas automation? Never going to happen. Instead, haas will just raise prices and lose market.

The blanket tariff negotiation (I tariff all your stuff, or else!) is "Do what I want or I'll kill your daughter, eat your dog, and burn your farm!" -- but in this case, because trump's said the same thing to everyone, he's actually saying "Do what I want or I'll kill my daughter, eat my dog, and burn my farm!"

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#636

Post by iAMkenough »

achandlerwhite wrote: post #428
iAMkenough wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

No they didn’t. If anything it was being discussed and most likely only for Amazon Haul, which is not normal Amazon. That said I wish they would.

Strange that the White House would get so worked up over potential plans for Amazon Haul.

“Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm.”

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#637

Post by slashdev »

ceejayoz wrote: post #535
slashdev wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The media has been extremely critical of Trump. Sometimes deserved, sometimes not. But impossible to deny the bias.

The media is also extremely critical of shooting yourself in the face. Is that bias? Or sensible?

Implying the media is sensible is hilarious

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#638

Post by slashdev »

Retric wrote: post #515
slashdev wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The media has been extremely critical of Trump. Sometimes deserved, sometimes not. But impossible to deny the bias.

A neutral stance isn’t an uncritical stance. It’s undeserved praise vs undeserved damnation that signifies a non neutral position.

The media is far from neutral. Almost all have a major left bias. Fox has a major right bias.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#639

Post by rchaud »

dmitrygr wrote: post #526
rchaud wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between preventing war and preventing a wider world war. Trade links persisting even when countries are opposed to each other contributes to a certain level of global order between the biggest powers.

If trade can persist in war then by definition trade will not prevent war If A -> B not A -> B then it cannot be said that B -> not A

And yet it has prevented a wider military confrontation over Taiwan, Kashmir, North Korea and continental Europe after WWII.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#640

Post by differentView »

Take8435 wrote: post #486
atonse wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow I loved this "What's going on with US Ports" video. Subscribed. I love channels like this. People with a deep understanding that just report facts as they are. I wish more mainstream media did this.

That's the thing. "Mainstream" Media in the US are no longer bound to the fairness doctrine. Thus, we have corporate ownership which steers how a story is written or at all. Independent media beholden only to their viewers (not corporate benefactors) are incentivized to do what you want more effectively.

How do you determine who among independent media are fair?
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