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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#611

Post by a_bonobo »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #162
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I'm already seeing this in the life-sciences. Illumina, who used to own the game of DNA sequencing, has been laying people off left and right. All my contacts within the company are laid off.

Illumina is a special edge case as they've been a victim of souring China-US relations before the tariffs even started: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#612

Post by slavik81 »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #88
Aurornis wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s actually not. If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world, setting up shop in America is not looking good. You’d pay exorbitant tariffs on inputs and machines. It’s better to manufacture out of the country and let US consumers eat the tariff cost on import while keeping your operations efficient outside of the US tariff zone. It’s an extraordinarily poorly pla…

Well… what can I tell you. Talk to your president regarding dismantling your country? It’s not difficult to figure out that I‘m being sarcastic. What I‘m saying is: the problem sits in the white house.

I want to believe that, but the president is not doing this by himself. His was re-elected democratically by a majority of voters, and he enjoys the support of the house, the senate, and the federal courts. I fear that the problem lies in the hearts and minds of the American people.

As a Canadian, it has been hard to stomach. I thought we were brothers working together towards a common future. It would be a lot less heartbreaking if this really was caused by a single individual.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#613

Post by cle »

mbostleman wrote: post #601
cle wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024. Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

It’s sad that these posts of relevant facts - that are only presented as such, with no judgement - are being downvoted, apparently because they don’t supportive a narrative. One of the things I’ve always loved about Hacker News was how the community was so curious about truth. I guess all good things come to an end at some point.

I would love to have conversations with folks about the details and learn more about it. The CNY mention was helpful.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#614

Post by cameldrv »

dten wrote: post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

There's probably an effect of people who tried as hard as they could to get their goods loaded under the wire before the tariffs took effect, and so the following week would be less, but the following week would be closer to normal.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#616

Post by cle »

dtech wrote: post #431
cle wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024. Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly. My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.

Thank you for the details. I've no doubt that tariffs are having impacts. Was looking at that specific data and finding it hard to conclude with just that data. Does CNY also explain the Week 16->17 drop in 2024?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#617

Post by poisonarena »

pests wrote: post #327
sbuttgereit wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sal Mercogliano who runs "What's Going On with Shipping?" is one of the best informed commentators in the subjects of logistics and shipping. He's also a skilled presenter... enough so that I subscribe to his channel and I've not got any real special interest in subject (but I do recognize it's economic importance). Also, in a different comment, his work at Campbell is mentioned, but I think that leaves open why he h…

Been seeing his videos pop up more. Wasn’t sure if it was completely legit or just reactionary takes but I’ll check one out now thanks.

im in the merchant marine and this guy is our god

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#618

Post by fc417fc802 »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #584
TylerE wrote: post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.

That's easy enough to fake. How is US customs going to know when a German company's ship registered in the Philippines left a Chinese port?

Presumably by asking the Chinese authorities directly? We have near instantaneous global communication these days - that's how I'm conversing with you right now.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#619

Post by smingo »

dtech wrote: post #431
cle wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024. Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly. My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.

Chinese New Year falls between 21 January and 20 February. This would be somewhere between week 3 and week 8.

Some ISO 8601 week numbers for CNY:

2022 CNY fell on Feb 1 , which is Week 5

2023 CNY fell on Jan 22, which is Week 3

2024 CNY fell on Feb 10, which is Week 6

2025 CNY fell on Jan 29, which is Week 5

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#620

Post by tzs »

rayiner wrote: post #420
nathan_compton wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so disingenuous a defense of the circus going on right now for so many reasons. First of all, nobody in the current administration would give a shit if somehow China made a deal. The Tariffs would go back down again. The Tariffs are not contingent upon good labor laws in China or anything like that. Like seriously. Yes, the left wants better labor power and yes the left continues to understand that offshoring…

> By all means, we should pursue a humanist trade policy that pressures developing countries to improve labor rules, human rights, democracy, etc. But to characterize this present circumstance as that is ridiculous. But nobody besides Trump is going to do that, because everyone is addicted to the short term boosts of free trade. Obama talked a big game and then in office became a free trader that was pushing TPP befo…

One of the main points of TPP was to put pressure on China. Trump killing it helped China.
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