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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

No they didn’t. If anything it was being discussed and most likely only for Amazon Haul, which is not normal Amazon. That said I wish they would.

That is what Amazon said in their comments disavowing the additional information.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#582
post #356

A surprising amount of LA's economy is just warehouses. This could have an interesting effect on the cost of housing in LA, which would have an effect on Phoenix, which has seen massive growth in warehouses as LA has gotten expensive

The vast amount of warehousing in SoCal is in the Inland Empire, the logistics capital of the country, not LA proper. There's very little warehousing being done in LA and there's still ample land in the IE and high desert areas. It should have zero effect on housing prices in the area, they already moved further inland since ecommerce took off 20 years ago and only accelerated since the pandemic.

[deleted]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#583
post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

Source? I did not see this active anywhere, only mentioned.

https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-4-29-2025#...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#584
post #573
post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruising speed can also be modulated, easily within some ranges. You might speed up a little if you think you can land cargo before new tariffs, and you may slow if you think tariffs may be reduced if you land later. Staff costs for the vessel are relatively small, so as long as you don't go outside the range of speeds that are fuel efficient, there's flexibility. Some of the tariff increases are so high that they ef…

The tariffs are based on departure not arrival date.

That's easy enough to fake. How is US customs going to know when a German company's ship registered in the Philippines left a Chinese port?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two interesting things I took away from that were first that the uncertainty and constant changes of mind by the President on the actual rates and lack of reliable communications were almost as harmful as the tariffs. Second, that there is a "snowball effect" in that you often have to pre-pay, so you take out more loans at a worse interest rate to make your order and then if because costs went up, you order fewer ite…

It’s why the government needs to curb and heel billionaires. A bunch of techbros who mistake money for smarts pushes an obviously dumb strategy to a pack of populist clowns and grifters. That should not be possible. The kickback from this mania is going to be pretty extreme pain for these clowns.

I fear you will be proved wrong.

If history is any indication, then the blowback will be leveraged (successfully) to point fingers at other parties (doesn't matter who), and then the proposed remedy will be to double-down:

"It didn't work the first time around because we weren't strong-willed/determined/patriotic enough, this time We Must Go All In, and stamp out any dissidents with extreme prejudice, for they are the Enemy holding us back from our Finest Hour!"

etc, etc.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#586
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine. The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere. The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them. As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.

The real lesson is that nuclear disarmament is a fool's choice.

This is the biggest lesson of the first quarter of the 21st century.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

Recession is the base case. The worst case is ... worse.

Well, now, that depends on when and who exactly is involved in large scale protests against the Trump administration.

If they call out the active duty military against middle-aged, white, protestors, they'll have a problem. If it's against students and minorities,...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#588
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

If it's famine you're worried about, I think we'll be ok as long as the govt doesn't try to set prices/mandate supply [1] (which isn't out of the question I suppose.)

If it's war due to decreased economic interdependence, well yes that would be much worse.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_of_famines

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish. I…

is it not obvious the oligarchs control the globalist politicians and not the nationalists? Is it controversial to say that if you really wanted to "fight the oligarchy", your policy positions would be pretty similar to the America first agenda (sans social issues)?

Don't confuse the Goldman Sachs branch of the Democratic party with Musk/Bezos/et al bankrolling the Republican party.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#590
post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whatever your hopes and dreams around domestic manufacturing, blanket tariffs capriciously imposed at random are unlikely to get any dream closer to reality, except perhaps the dream of total devastation of all manufacturing. Let's look at what an actual domestic manufacturer has to say about tariffs[1]? Oh, looks bad! Turns out, manufacturers import stuff, add value to it, and sell it for more money! Hopefully we'll…

While there are more peaceful ways of rebalancing trade, unilateral tariffs would be able to rebalance things on the long term. The problem is that alot of people in HN think in terms in export-driven economy, when in reality the majority of USA's economy is consumption, it's the largest consumer in the world. Loosing access to foreign markets dosen't mean as much to USA as it does to the rest of the world loosing ac…

https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Mercantilism.html
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