Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week • Hacker News Board

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#401

Post by olddustytrail » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:51 PM UTC

woobar wrote: post #336

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of packaging is sourced from China. Things that wouldn't otherwise be a problem will become a problem. Potentially that includes bottles, tins, plastic food packaging, niche carboard boxes. Imports from China are ~40% of all US imports. Even a 10% drop would be difficult, and at current levels it's going to be more than that.

> Imports from China are ~40% of all US imports You mean 14%? https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports-by-countr...

That's by value. I reckon since Chinese imported goods tend to be cheaper they probably make up a greater number than the value percentage would indicate.

So I suspect 40% figure is how many items in a typical household are from China.

Edit: in case that's not clear, here's an example:

I have one item from the USA that costs $80. I have four items from China that cost $5 each.

My imports from China are 20% of my spending. My imports from China are 80% of my goods.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#402

Post by rayiner » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:57 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #238

LiquidSky wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, we have to back off tariffs because they are a terrible idea.

Tariffs are just a policy tool we can use. Every major economic power uses them to some extent, including the European Union. Trump’s tariffs I think are bad because he is “going after everyone” versus Biden’s approach which was to build a coalition of friendly nations and revamp supply chains to reduce dependency on China who is adamant about being a foe to the United States, European Union, and others. Tariffs are…

Note that China takes measures to suppress domestic consumption for strategic reasons.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#403

Post by iAMkenough » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:57 PM UTC

trhway wrote: post #391

relwin wrote: post #301

Gamers Nexus essentially produced a 3-hr doc on how changing tariffs affect the US computer industry: "The Death of Affordable Computing | Tariffs Impact & Investigation" https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?si=pBVt65SMqb1p-Zte . Best part is having a product manager show a spreadsheet of costs and margins and explain in real terms ($$$) what tariffs do to their business.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#404

Post by rayiner » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:58 PM UTC

LiquidSky wrote: post #262

ericmay wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariffs are just a policy tool we can use. Every major economic power uses them to some extent, including the European Union. Trump’s tariffs I think are bad because he is “going after everyone” versus Biden’s approach which was to build a coalition of friendly nations and revamp supply chains to reduce dependency on China who is adamant about being a foe to the United States, European Union, and others. Tariffs are…

The idea that China only makes "cheap, disposable junk" and this faux-tough guy "we gotta man up and suffer through" pose is a big part of the problem.

Yeah but the Christmas toys mentioned above are cheap disposable junk.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#405

Post by rhcom2 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:58 PM UTC

Workaccount2 wrote: post #157

guywithahat wrote: post #130

Not too long ago I tried to raise money for a PCB assembly plant in the US, but couldn't raise the funding and got a "real job". Posts like these really make me wish I didn't give up lol

This is something I am personally mixed about, working in electronics and having had boards made both domestically and in China. The thing is that China is just really damn good at electronics manufacturing. Their tooling is cutting edge, their workers are career electronics manufacturing workers, and their supply chain is insane . However I do have a feeling of "if you build it, they will come". But I think it would…

These are the king of capabilities, like semiconductor manufacturing, that we want to have (at least some) locally for more reasons than just economics though. It seems like a national security issue.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#406

Post by Teever » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:58 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #398

Teever wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine. The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere. The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them. As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.

It's also just not the general lesson from history either. Plus you have to recall that in many cases war is about resource acquisition as much as anything else, and sometimes wars are popularized as ideological crusades when they are masquerading as resource disputes in order to motivate a populace. Something that has become apparent to me is that in our years of somewhat peaceful economic growth, we seem to have fo…

I'm not pitching this as a moral crusade, but as a practical one. Authoritarianism is a cancer that invariably spreads and disrupts the global system.

It is simply in our best interest to starve cancer whenever we find it and excise it if possible.

If the goal of buying Russian hydrocarbons was to increase the economic stability of Russia and to foster capitalistic market systems in the country to prevent the rise of authoritarianism then the second they invaded Georgia should have resulted in the cutting of those economic ties.

If the goal of opening trade up to China was to prevent a Chinese-Soviet alliance and to weaken the USSR then the second the USSR fell we should have pivoted to defeating Chinese authoritarianism instead of strengthening economic ties to them which has ultimately provided fuel for an authoritarian economic machine that has grown to surpass the capacity of the US and made the US dependent on it.

We didn't do those things and now we're facing existential economic and military threats.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#407

Post by ajmurmann » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

lesuorac wrote: post #277

ajmurmann wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can build a factory in a month, including permitting, acquiring the land, planning the building and constucting it, as well as procuring or building the machinery and setting it up in the factory, programming it and hiring and training the workforce during high employment? That's very impressive!

Perhaps not a month but the US really can build things fast if that's actually prioritized. https://www.globalhighways.com/wh10/feature/building-replace... tbh, as far as I'm concerned the hollowing out of the USG is why we can't do things fast. How many times has your boss had the entire team submit a proposal on how long it would take each member of the team to complete a JIRA ticket and then use that bidding as to…

11 months is truly impressive but of course a far cry from a single month. A bridge also needs no machinery and workers permanently dedicated to it. IMO it's absolutely crucial for the US to cut down red tape and silly regulations to allow all construction to get done much more rapidly. I also wonder how this translates to building many projects like it at the same time. I understand construction capacity and backlogs are a huge bottleneck and we are in the process of deporting large numbers of people who could work on it while never having been good at growing a strong workforce in trades that require certification like electricians because we won't give out H1Bs for those.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#408

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

projectazorian wrote: post #394

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how this comforts anyone. We need labor, there aren't enough spa management and pet groomer positions to build an economy upon. What good does it do for anyone that we manufacture more, if there aren't enough good-paying jobs to go around to support a broad consumer base for those same products you say are being manufactured without (much) labor? Why would any foreign nation even want to manufacture goods to…

> We need labor, there aren't enough spa management and pet groomer positions to build an economy upon. Is it your impression that spa management and pet care are the only working-class service jobs available? Most of the trades are categorized as service professions in the statistics. So is construction.

You're expecting that in the coming months the demand for master plumbers will double or something? Or are you saying that the existing demand is already so high that it can do more than provide some fraction of one percent of the jobs that our nation of 300-million-ish needs to have a strong economy?

I think we both agree that one of us has unrealistic impressions of the big picture here. When we regularly here of layoffs that affect hundreds and thousands of jobs, welders and electricians can't absorb those unemployed to any great degree. Nor all of the trades put together.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#409

Post by kolanos » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

MaxPock wrote: post #371

kolanos wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff.... They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example: > Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Fo…

GM used to sell more cars in China than in the US .Same with VW , Mercedes and BMW

While this is true, this changed around 2009. What happened? The Chinese government started heavily subsidizing domestic automakers [0]while continuing the joint venture requirements for foreign automakers, which started in 1979 [1]. These joint venture requirements have been a source of significant intellectual property theft [2]. All foreign automakers operating in China, not just U.S. ones, have either faced bankruptcy or a significant downturn in market share in China over the past 15 years.

[0]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/07/china-gives-its-automakers... [1]: https://www.imd.org/ibyimd/innovation/chinas-automotive-odys... [2]: https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/china-joint-venture...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#410

Post by silisili » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:59 PM UTC

trhway wrote: post #391

relwin wrote: post #301

Gamers Nexus essentially produced a 3-hr doc on how changing tariffs affect the US computer industry: "The Death of Affordable Computing | Tariffs Impact & Investigation" https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?si=pBVt65SMqb1p-Zte . Best part is having a product manager show a spreadsheet of costs and margins and explain in real terms ($$$) what tariffs do to their business.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Retailers and middlemen typically don't like exposing how much -they- paid for an item. Exposing tariffs would show how much things are marked up from time of landing to reaching the shelves.