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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#351

Post by kolanos »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #162
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff....

They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example:

> Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Ford's average market share in China has been a modest 1.8%.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#352

Post by unethical_ban »

taylodl wrote: post #326
unethical_ban wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The two party system, forced on us by plurality voting, is the reason people feel they don't have a choice. Pick one of two very different sides. If a third candidate tries to enter the race, they harm themselves and the person they are similar to, and they help the opposition. Any form of ranked voting will rid us of this restriction and allow more candidates to run for an office, and allow citizens to vote their tr…

What you're talking about is known as Duverger's Law - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law

Yep! And the "spoiler effect" is when a voting system fails to meet the "independence of clones" criterion.

In an election, the addition of a candidate similar to an existing candidate should not adversely impact both candidates.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#353

Post by otterley »

nebula8804 wrote: post #338
otterley wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know that it takes guns. If we moved to, say, ranked-choice voting and a multi-party system, the more extreme elements of our country would probably be sidelined.

Did you see the bill introduced the other day? H.R.3040 - To prohibit the use of ranked choice voting in elections for Federal office. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3040

I did not. Talk about a blatant attempt to power grab, though. Hopefully it never makes it out of committee.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#354

Post by nradov »

unethical_ban wrote: post #135
bilbo0s wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will. That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that. Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? It w…

The two party system, forced on us by plurality voting, is the reason people feel they don't have a choice. Pick one of two very different sides. If a third candidate tries to enter the race, they harm themselves and the person they are similar to, and they help the opposition. Any form of ranked voting will rid us of this restriction and allow more candidates to run for an office, and allow citizens to vote their tr…

Right. The last serious third-party presidential candidate was Ross Perot in 1992. In terms of political platform and voter appeal he was slightly more similar to the incumbent Republican candidate George H. W. Bush, which probably enabled the Democrat candidate Bill Clinton to win (although it's impossible to know what would have happened if Perot didn't run).

Some political analysts claim that Perot entered the race not really intending to win but rather as retribution against Bush. In 1979 the Iranian regime imprisoned two of Perot's EDS employees. Perot asked Bush, who was then Director of the CIA, to get them out. Bush refused to act and Perot held a grudge against him ever since.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#355

Post by aweiland »

999900000999 wrote: post #329
parineum wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? I guess you forgot about the corpse of Biden. Harris belongs in that "challengers" category except she had less support than DeSantis and Haley (from both Democrats and Republicans!). Harris has neve…

It started in 2008. The Democratic party tried to rig it for Clinton. I'm sure she's a wonderful person in real life, but she's one of the most unpopular people to ever run for office. Obama actually is likeable, easily winning the primary and both elections. The Dems, because deep down they'd rather have the GOP over real progressives. Decided to rig it for Hillary again in 2016. Sanders had an actual base, but the…

They did cancel some primaries in 2019 to protect Trump or at least his feelings.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/06/republicans-cancel...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#356

Post by fckgw »

guywithahat wrote: post #169

A surprising amount of LA's economy is just warehouses. This could have an interesting effect on the cost of housing in LA, which would have an effect on Phoenix, which has seen massive growth in warehouses as LA has gotten expensive

The vast amount of warehousing in SoCal is in the Inland Empire, the logistics capital of the country, not LA proper. There's very little warehousing being done in LA and there's still ample land in the IE and high desert areas. It should have zero effect on housing prices in the area, they already moved further inland since ecommerce took off 20 years ago and only accelerated since the pandemic.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#357

Post by corimaith »

ryandrake wrote: post #281
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sa…

>Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading.

World War 1 begs to differ, hell even the Russian invasion of Crimea back in 2014 begs to differ. Economic interdependence dosen't stop authoritarians, it only threatens democracies with a larger margin for dissent.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#358

Post by pchristensen »

dragonwriter wrote: post #248
martythemaniak wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We all have LLMs available we can feed things through of we want a machine summary and don't want to read ourselves, please don't choke HN with machine generated content.

Echoing davidw's comments down thread, I would love if HN put a collapsed, expandable LLM summary like this after every Youtube link.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#359

Post by bregma »

lazide wrote: post #284
lenerdenator wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, life's better when you don't have to rely on the guns. If you're willing to work together to make the pie bigger for everyone, peacefully, you get further. Which is why you have to occasionally knock the people willing to exploit the peaceful order, off.

Which takes guns. And back at square 1.

A few smaller guns used judiciously will achieve that purpose. You don't need everyone using a tank in a Mexican standoff just to have peace.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#360

Post by bluGill »

oceanplexian wrote: post #290
duxup wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

The US already makes highly advanced goods like cars using robotic manufacturing. Wouldn't an entrepreneur be able to figure out how to make something as simple as a shoe factory? And wouldn't that also result in fairly high paying union jobs, such as the people to maintain the machines and software?

Clothing is hard because it needs to have stretch. Iron is easy to automate because it doesn't stretch (well it does but not by enough to worry about). Thus we have been automating steel for a long time, and clothing still has a lot of manual sewing done on it. To the extent we have automated sewing it is often has a significant quality reduction.

Hopefully somebody can solve the problem. There is a lot of work on it, and progress is being made. Don't ask me how close they are, I don't work in that space.

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