Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week • Hacker News Board

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#311

Post by xienze » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:36 PM UTC

projectazorian wrote: post #293

robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

> I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing st…

> I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing still happening.

“Plenty” but still less overall than 10-20 years ago, 30, 40, 50 years ago. There’s a quite clear trend to zero here.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#312

Post by hello_computer » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:36 PM UTC

good. we have too much shit. too much noise. i grew up without most of it, and life was fine. inb4 trump ballwasher: i’d applaud regardless of party or personality.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#313

Post by jdc0589 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

kergonath wrote: post #191

jdc0589 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we need the reddit remindme bot

No, we really don’t. We don’t need a bot bringing marginally positive value for a single person and shitting the bed, cluttering everything with stupid useless noise and bringing negative value for everyone else. "Be more like Reddit" is really not something HN should aspire to. If you like Reddit, it’s ok to be both there and here.

[flagged]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#314

Post by bluGill » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:41 PM UTC

mstaoru wrote: post #107

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

The Suez canal is very much affecting anyone in the EU and has for a lot longer than Trump has been in office. Almost no ships have been going that way since early/mid last year, preferring to go the more expensive/long way around Africa instead.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#315

Post by Teever » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:42 PM UTC

ryandrake wrote: post #281

jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sa…

That isn't the lesson from Russia invading Ukraine.

The lesson from Russia invading Ukraine is that the presence of authoritarians anywhere is a threat to democracies everywhere.

The kind of people who crush freedom aren't content to just do so within their own borders and will eventually do so to others around them.

As such it should be the priority of all democracies to extinguish authoritarians whenever possible.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#316

Post by dmarlow » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:42 PM UTC

pbronez wrote: post #292

robomartin wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

> the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft. Yup. China has been systematically stealing the IP of anything made in their country since forever. Companies kept falling for it because the potential market looked so big. Now BYD makes cars as good as Tesla and it's all #ShockedPikachuFace

Doesn't Tesla have an open patent philosophy? I've heard Musk say that if someone builds a better electric car and it causes the end of Tesla, he's fine with that.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#317

Post by bluGill » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:43 PM UTC

h2zizzle wrote: post #243

consp wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the quote is higher, doesn't that mean the demand is higher and less empty containers are available? The EU does not have an extreme tariff on most products from china, only some. I guess I'm missing something here.

Begging the question/speaking out of my butt: fewer empty containers may mean they're running fewer ships, not filling up the normal volume.

Same number of ships, but they are skipping the shortcut through he Suez canal (and have been for a year) thus meaning they take longer and so can haul a lot less.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#318

Post by c22 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:44 PM UTC

clumsysmurf wrote: post #65

readthenotes1 wrote: post #13

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

I never shopped Temu / Shein but got lots of electronics from AliExpress. My last purchase was a spectrometer, I would never be able to afford it now with tariffs + de minimus gone. I think this will hurt the DIY / Maker / IoT community hard.

The DIY / Maker crowd seems the most insulated from this, being in a prime position to recycle and repurpose materials that are already here to make their own tools.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#319

Post by hnaccount141 » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:45 PM UTC

robomartin wrote: post #269

jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

> In other words, the relationship with hundreds of countries has been very one-sided for a long time. US industry needs to export to thrive, but if countries like Turkey impose 140% tariffs on our autos and trucks, markets are de-facto shut down.

These comparisons (and conclusions of one-sidedness) always leave the greatest benefit the US has enjoyed: access to a massive labor force willing to do work most Americans aren't[1] at wages lower than are Legal in the US.

[1] https://www.cato.org/blog/americans-think-manufacturing-empl...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#320

Post by dyauspitr » Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 4:46 PM UTC

dten wrote: post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

Predictions are based on historical data which isn’t relevant in this case.