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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#281

Post by ryandrake »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #162
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> Worst case all this triggers a recession.

Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession!

The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sanctions and force them to rely on themselves economically: It reduces one of the downsides of warfighting. Do we really want an isolated, independent and self-sufficient China?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#282

Post by lazide »

jgeada wrote: post #265
csomar wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components In a sane world, that's what targeted tariffs are. You don't want to tariffs across the whole board because you might affect exporting manufactures whose prices will go through the roof and might experience disruption. It is kind of what is happening with auto tariffs now that there is a huge…

Any assumption that there is targeting or any sort of planning by the chaos goblins we currently have running this administration is long on hope and short on reality.

Well, they’re targeting right at the jugular.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#283

Post by [deleted] »

dullcrisp wrote: post #138
throw0101a wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' The "Youtuber" is actually a professor and Chair, Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell: * https://directory.campbell.edu/people/sal-mercogliano/ * https://twitter.com/mercoglianos

You mean the chair of the department of history is actually a YouTuber.

[deleted]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#284

Post by lazide »

lenerdenator wrote: post #267
roughly wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that’s been interesting (in a Ralp-Wiggins-esque “I’m in danger!” type way) to watch over the last few years is all the “end of history” types re-learning that Mao was right and that economic might only translates into real power when you use it to buy guns. Europe spent a decade trying to tie Russia into the global economy only to find all that cheap energy meant that when Russia walked into the Ukraine, t…

To be fair, life's better when you don't have to rely on the guns. If you're willing to work together to make the pie bigger for everyone, peacefully, you get further. Which is why you have to occasionally knock the people willing to exploit the peaceful order, off.

Which takes guns. And back at square 1.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#285

Post by dehrmann »

throw0101a wrote: post #80
trebligdivad wrote: post #21

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' has a good description in; it includes pointers to loads of sites with the actual data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k

> The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' The "Youtuber" is actually a professor and Chair, Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell: * https://directory.campbell.edu/people/sal-mercogliano/ * https://twitter.com/mercoglianos

The job is essentially the same: publish or perish.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#286

Post by immibis »

crote wrote: post #234
thfuran wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.

Ships can be rerouted while in transit. I bet it is extremely unusual for a container ship, but we do live in interesting times.

There was an interview with a shipping manager somewhere (probably the 3-hour documentary by Gamers Nexus?). They said absolutely have been rerouting container ships in transit.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#287

Post by ericmay »

LiquidSky wrote: post #262
ericmay wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariffs are just a policy tool we can use. Every major economic power uses them to some extent, including the European Union. Trump’s tariffs I think are bad because he is “going after everyone” versus Biden’s approach which was to build a coalition of friendly nations and revamp supply chains to reduce dependency on China who is adamant about being a foe to the United States, European Union, and others. Tariffs are…

The idea that China only makes "cheap, disposable junk" and this faux-tough guy "we gotta man up and suffer through" pose is a big part of the problem.

Well yes, as I mentioned in my post China does make more than cheap junk. And our inability to make those advanced electronics is a specific problem I called out.

With respect to the “man up” piece of it - well if you can’t go without TikTok and Temu junk you have a big problem.

Both items: inability to manufacture advanced electronics, and inability to not go without cheap junk are separate but related problems.

While I think the Trump admin is weak and will capitulate on tariffs, and that’s aside from the asinine way in which we are treating our allies with respect to the same, him and others are very much right to point out the underlying concern. Tariffs can help to address those concerns, but they are just one tool amongst many.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#288

Post by i80and »

slashdev wrote: post #137
pixl97 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition tik-tok/insta are having post after post warning people that the shelves are going to be empty which tends to feedback into itself. If you were going to buy 1 of X normally if you think X may be out for sometime you may end up buying 2-4 of X which will run the shelves out very quickly when 10-15% of purchasers do that unexpectedly. Other people see the shelves emptying and buy more too. Going to be messy…

> All I have to say is imagine if Biden did this, what the news would be saying. Surely you don’t mean to imply the media treated Biden less favorably than Trump?

At least for the 2024 election, I find it difficult to believe one could come to any other conclusion with all the rampant sane-washing that NYT, WaPo, etc. engaged in

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#289

Post by tomcar288 »

taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

let's not forget, "In 2024, China supplied approximately 13.4% of the total goods imported by the United States, with a total value of $438.9 billion. " '

And those are heavily concentrated in certain industries like basic electronics, toys, etc.

in anycase, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#290

Post by oceanplexian »

duxup wrote: post #48
Loughla wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

The US already makes highly advanced goods like cars using robotic manufacturing.

Wouldn't an entrepreneur be able to figure out how to make something as simple as a shoe factory? And wouldn't that also result in fairly high paying union jobs, such as the people to maintain the machines and software?

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