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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#141

Post by WillAdams »

XorNot wrote: post #44
thehoff wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

It takes exactly 1 "bare shelves" post on social media to kick off panic buying which cascades. In fact it doesn't take much of a change in regular buying habits to cause that it it's all aligned in the same direction. i.e. a chunk of the toilet paper "shortage" can just be every customer suddenly buying one more pack that day "just to be on the safe side". Your local supermarket isn't expecting that, so the shelves…

Yeah, my Great Aunt and her friends would coordinate their purchase of sugar for making preserves each year w/ the local grocer --- while each of them could have bought all they needed at once, his stocking couldn't accommodate that, so everyone would let him know when they would start, and stop, buying a 5 lb. bag each week for each year's preserves.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#142

Post by Workaccount2 »

thehoff wrote: post #10
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

This guy is not pricing in panic and irrational behavior. People do the dumbest shit when supplies start getting low and the news is non-stop talking about shortages.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#143

Post by Teever »

jghn wrote: post #125
jmyeet wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive. As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's…

Where do the farmers that grow your food get their fertilizer and fuel from? Or the electronics and hydraulics in their tractors?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#145

Post by guntars »

pixl97 wrote: post #64
taylodl wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets don't work that way. Supply is tuned to demand. When the supply is artificially constrained while the demand remains constant, it further strains already limited supplies, leading to empty shelves and rising prices. This is a fundamental principle of market economics. It's important to understand how these dynamics operate to grasp the broader implications of reduced imports from China.

In addition tik-tok/insta are having post after post warning people that the shelves are going to be empty which tends to feedback into itself. If you were going to buy 1 of X normally if you think X may be out for sometime you may end up buying 2-4 of X which will run the shelves out very quickly when 10-15% of purchasers do that unexpectedly. Other people see the shelves emptying and buy more too. Going to be messy…

Ah, yes, the difference between taking two slices at a pizza party because you fear it might run out vs taking none because you fear it might run out.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#148

Post by jmyeet »

SoftTalker wrote: post #129
jmyeet wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.

China is holding pretty much all the cards here.

First, it has a command economy. It's much more equipped to handle this in keeping factories afloat and people employed and housed.

Second, the US is ~15% of China's exports and a lot of those exports will continue even with tariffs. Some by diversified supply chains (eg "laundering" Chinese made goods through Vietnam) or the Chinese goods are so low cost that the tariffs will be paid (eg a milk carton represents a small percentage of the cost of a carton of milk).

Third, the US will feel the inflationary effects. China will not.

Fourth, if China needs to raise funds they can and will sell US treasuries, spiking yields, hitting the ability of the US to issue further debt as well as borrowing costs for homeowners and businesses.

Lastly, the rest of the world is on China's side. This whole tariff fiasco may be the largest self-own in American history. Additionally, it's undoing generations of American soft power globally.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#149

Post by andrewflnr »

rayiner wrote: post #99

Stopping the flow of Chinese products, often made with child or forced labor, is a good thing: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/reports/child-labor/list-o... . Weren’t we upset about the Uyghurs five minutes ago? Trade with China is bad. It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws, and whose “comparative advantage” is cheaper labor. This was a wi…

If it was only China being tariffed, instead of including all the allies we need to stand against China, you would start to have a point. If they were based on something other than a 1600s child king's understanding of trade balance, maybe focused on particular kinds of manufacturing, or even just explicitly based on morals instead of this fantasy of manufacturing returning to the US, you would have a point. But none of those things are true. Trump is at best a stopped clock with gears poking out through the casing.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#150

Post by jjulius »

pelagic_sky wrote: post #4

Seattle ports are currently empty, will be interesting to see if this holds true . https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/port-of-seattle-empty-ze...

>Seattle ports are currently empty...

At the time of my response, there are five container ships in Eliot Bay, and a large container ship, along with a smaller container ship that just arrived, docked at Harbor Island (the primary port in question).

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-122.338/c...

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