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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#121
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

> the toilet paper I guess these US manufacturers will need to step it up: Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, and Georgia-Pacific

With raw material coming from other countries, probably.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

It’s actually not. If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world, setting up shop in America is not looking good. You’d pay exorbitant tariffs on inputs and machines. It’s better to manufacture out of the country and let US consumers eat the tariff cost on import while keeping your operations efficient outside of the US tariff zone. It’s an extraordinarily poorly pla…

> If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world

If you do that now in the USA, there’s a fairly large risk that your exports will be taxed, and, with exports to the USA tanking, there’s excess production in the rest parts of the world, so prices will go down outside the USA, at least temporarily.

⇒ If you’re starting a business in the USA today, you should only aim for the domestic market.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#123
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This SS post is fear porn. The Seattle Times article they link to at the bottom of their post gives actual numbers, not just vibes based on what poster can see with their binoculars. "Data from the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound, an industry association, shows the number of arriving container ships berthing at Seattle and Tacoma terminals from April 1 to April 24 was down 12% compared with the same period in 2024." M…

Trump only announced the tariffs on April 2, and the crossing takes weeks, and some traffic will left later than that having gambled that it'd be undone in transit. (Some of it was!) The stat for "April 1 to April 24" is likely to be different than the stat on April 27th alone. Both may be true. The port does look pretty empty on https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-122.373/c... Your stat also includes…

Port of LA: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-118.168/c...

NJ: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-74.148/ce...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#124

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

Some of that impact will be positive, as de minimis shipments are a major route for importing drugs and their precursors into the US: https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploi...

And strip searching everyone who enters a school building would have a positive impact on the rate of school shootings.

Over-enforcement creates its own major issues. The cure is worse than the disease.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#125
post #75
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive.

As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's supplies, electronics, etc. Sure, I'll buy them once in a while but not with any regularity. My understanding is that the classic paper products famous from COVID shortages are made in the US.

So with that in mind what you say is 100% true, at least for me. But I'm not so sure. Who makes the containers that my local milk is put into? Who makes the cans that my canned goods are using? What meta-products are being consumed by the local industries, such as the ones making my TP? I have a feeling the answer is scarier than it'd seem on the surface. But I don't know.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#127
post #119
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

HN should have a feature where you can tag a prediction to come back for review after some period of time.

we need the reddit remindme bot

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

It’s actually not. If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world, setting up shop in America is not looking good. You’d pay exorbitant tariffs on inputs and machines. It’s better to manufacture out of the country and let US consumers eat the tariff cost on import while keeping your operations efficient outside of the US tariff zone. It’s an extraordinarily poorly pla…

> with the goal of selling to customers all over the world

No, I think you're missing the point. This is not to create world-class companies, capable of selling abroad. This is to inject money and optimism in small, local, antiquated businesses that have been long priced out of any competition with the rest of the world.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#129
post #75
post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.
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