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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#101

Post by dylan604 »

Aurornis wrote: post #50
readthenotes1 wrote: post #13

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

I think you’re underestimating how many products have inputs that come from China and overestimating how many direct-ship packages the average person receives internationally.

The GP sounds more like someone that routinely bought from places like Shein, Temu, etc.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#102

Post by esseph »

rad_gruchalski wrote: post #38
bitmasher9 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

Won't happen.

Takes years, decades to build or rebuild new industries.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#103

Post by bilbo0s »

taylodl wrote: post #8
duxup wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be sad, but amused, when Trump and Co declare that each state should build factories to fill their needs for basic products ... similar to proposals made during the economic collapse days in Venezuela.

The United States has never had such incompetence in governance. Americans aren't accustomed to this degree of ineptness.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will.

That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that.

Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley?

It was corruption and ineptitude the entire way down. How could that have happened?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#104

Post by Loughla »

duxup wrote: post #48
Loughla wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

I wonder if he wants to work in a shoe factory?

It's funny you say that, because we talked about literally that. No joke.

No, he does not and would not want to work in a shoe factory, but he remembers when he was 16 and his first job was actually in a local shoe factory. He said it was a terrible job, but taught him how to keep a job. And he appreciated being able to buy shoes that were made by people he knew. . . . "I want that opportunity for my grandson."

It doesn't have to make sense, it just has to exist in quantity.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#105

Post by brookst »

duxup wrote: post #45
SwamyM wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

I don’t think the media really knows what will happen. Trump randomly decides to lift tariffs and any prediction is off.

The specifics of predictions may change, but the supply chain shock doesn’t just evaporate. Trump could transform into a 100% rational, economically wise leader today and the impacts of the past few months’ insanity would still be felt for years. Those bullets are already in flight and can’t be recalled.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#106

Post by quickthrowman »

bjourne wrote: post #32
Loughla wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

He's not wrong. It is technically possible. However, transforming the US into a command economy may not be the best thing to do.

It’s not possible without seizing the means of production. An electrical switchboard that can power a factory has a minimum 24 week lead time, probably more like 52 weeks.

In my local construction market everyone is already working. There’s no slack manpower, particularly in the skilled trades (mech, elec, plumbing)

The above also ignores the fact that nobody wants to lend capital for such projects, so the government will need to finance it.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#107

Post by mstaoru »

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#108

Post by rs999gti »

taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

> the toilet paper

I guess these US manufacturers will need to step it up: Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, and Georgia-Pacific

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#109

Post by AtlasBarfed »

taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

People seem to think, including very disturbingly our secretary of the Treasury, the companies maintain huge warehouses of back stock.

That hasn't been the case since the mid-90s when the PC revolution started pushing out supply chain management software. If I recall correctly, Walmart was the innovator in this space in one of their key ways to gain economic advantage over other retailers was low back stock demand tracking

On top of that the '90s was when free trade agreements came into Vogue and the supply lines and outsourcing of manufacturing cranked up into high gear.

So as we saw with covid, any disruption to this a highly extended optimized supply chain results in massive disruption.

I can't see how any massive new tariffs isn't going to essentially be a covid level or worse disruption to this entire supply chain

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#110

Post by jmyeet »

There are two things I want people to remember:

1. The administration has absolutely no idea what they're doing. Don't be tempted to think this is part of some grand plan. Don't believe any narrative about how short-term pain was intentional. There's borderline or actual panic in the administration, going so far as to sideline Peter Navarro to get Trump to back down [1]; and

2. All of this is happening so the wealthiest 1000 people, who already pay almost no taxes, can pay slightly less in taxes. They've already started the rhetoric about tax cuts for average people based on the 2017 tax cuts for people below the top bracket expiring this year. The cut in the top bracket and the corporate tax rate cuts were permanent. So another likely temporary tax cut will be sold while giving away trillions to the wealthiest people on the planet.

[1]: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-pause-navar...

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