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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#31

Post by ARandumGuy »

xnx wrote: post #17
duxup wrote: post #2

It will be interesting to see if retailers choose raising prices or if they lean more towards ... just not offering some things.

A retailer would be irrational to let stock run out instead of continuously raising prices.

For stuff that people need and will buy at heavily inflated prices, sure. But there are a lot of non-essential items that people probably won't buy if the price increases significantly. And for those items, I suspect a lot of stores will just let the shelves stay empty instead of spending a lot of money for inventory they can't sell.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#32

Post by bjourne »

Loughla wrote: post #24
duxup wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll be sad, but amused, when Trump and Co declare that each state should build factories to fill their needs for basic products ... similar to proposals made during the economic collapse days in Venezuela.

I had a conversation with someone who I usually respect, and would say is an intelligent person. He's a trump supporter for the manufacturing support. He said, "It's just not that hard to get these factories back to the states. We can get that done this month." The amount of cognitive dissonance and just outright believing the lies is astounding. Trump won't say that states need to build those factories. He'll tell g…

He's not wrong. It is technically possible. However, transforming the US into a command economy may not be the best thing to do.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#33

Post by SwamyM »

taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen?

The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#34

Post by toomuchtodo »

trymas wrote: post #14
thehoff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

I think there were already multiple posts on HN about this. Most recent I remember UPS firing 20 000 people. Edit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849

This was because UPS let an Amazon delivery deal roll off that was not profitable.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000109072725...

https://about.ups.com/us/en/newsroom/press-releases/financia...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#35

Post by 9rx »

xnx wrote: post #17
duxup wrote: post #2

It will be interesting to see if retailers choose raising prices or if they lean more towards ... just not offering some things.

A retailer would be irrational to let stock run out instead of continuously raising prices.

The customer will only bear so much, though, so at some point the businesses that keep buying stock and raising prices will be left with stock that cannot be priced any higher, leaving it to be unloaded at a loss. That can be a far worse situation than not having any stock at all. Either way, it is an uncomfortable gamble.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#37

Post by mindslight »

duxup wrote: post #2

It will be interesting to see if retailers choose raising prices or if they lean more towards ... just not offering some things.

Aliexpress is already displaying tariff-inclusive prices.

A curious dynamic: A seller importing a container of cargo to Amazon (or other US warehouse) has to pay the tariffs up front while trusting that dear leader won't lower the tariff amount before they can sell them. A seller that ships directly from China has a committed purchase with cash in hand by the time the specific tariff needs to be paid. I can see this leading to drastically less selection from US warehouses of long tail items that would otherwise sit around.

Speculation: I wouldn't be surprised if Aliexpress (/Choice) charges sellers a fixed fee based on the current tariff rates, but still covers whatever the tariff ends up being when the item arrives at the port, to make it really straightforward for sellers. The kind of eat-it investment you get in a society working to build up institutions rather than tear them down.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#38

Post by rad_gruchalski »

bitmasher9 wrote: post #23
throw310822 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dockworkers, logistics, truck delivery drivers, warehouse workers, etc. On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics. Even if the country's going to suffer they should profit handsomely (which is not a bad thing per se).

Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#39

Post by duxup »

rdtsc wrote: post #16
thehoff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

> I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of But since we’re being cynical, is importing stuff just to keep the port workers busy a good idea?

> just

Well we don’t import things to just do that.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#40

Post by taylodl »

thehoff wrote: post #10
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for. “I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on t…

Markets don't work that way. Supply is tuned to demand. When the supply is artificially constrained while the demand remains constant, it further strains already limited supplies, leading to empty shelves and rising prices. This is a fundamental principle of market economics. It's important to understand how these dynamics operate to grasp the broader implications of reduced imports from China.
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