"Life is awesome", said the frog, "the owners arranged a jacuzzi for me, it's warm and lovely in the water, not dangerous at all".
Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
91–100 of 503 posts
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
It looks like the writing is on the wall too for other menial and low-value creative jobs too - so basic music and videos - I fully expect that 90+% of video adverts will be entirely AI generated within the next year or two. see Google Veo - they have the tech already and they have YouTube already and they have the ad network already ... Instead of uploading your video ad you already created, you'll just enter a desc…
People will develop an eye for how AI-generated looks and that will make human creativity stand out even more. I'm expecting more creativity and less cookie-cutter content, I think AI generated content is actually the end of it.
Given that the goal of generative AI is to generate content that is virtually indistinguishable from expert creative people, I think it's one of these scenarios:
1. If the goal is achieved, which is highly unlikely, then we get very very close to AGI and all bets are off.
2. If the goal is not achieved and we stay in this uncanny valley territory (not at the bottom of it but not being able to climb out either), then eventually in a few years' time we should see a return to many fragmented almost indie-like platforms offering bespoke human-made content. The only way to hope to achieve the acceptable quality will be to favor it instead of scale as the content will have to be somehow verified by actual human beings.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#93Extrapolating from my current experience with AI-assisted work: AI just makes work more meaningful. My output has increased 10x, allowing me to focus on ideas and impact rather than repetitive tasks. Now apply that to entire industries and whole divisions of labor: manual data entry, customer support triage, etc. Will people be out of those jobs? Most certainly. But it gives all of us a chance to level up—to focus on…
What about technical debts related to the generated code?
Presumably as a father they are thinking about ways for their children to be employed.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#94Have any of these economists ever tried to scrape by as an entry-level graphic designer/illustrator? Apparently not, since the sort of specific work which one used to find for this has all but vanished --- every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not (ditto for stock images, but that's a different conversation).
Yeah, I saw a investment app that was filled with obviously AI generated images. One of the more recommended choices in my country.
It feels very short-sighted from the company side because I nope'd right out of there. They didn't make me feel any trust for the company at all.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
The world is not deglobalizing, US is.
Much of the globalized system is dependent upon US institutions which currently dont have a substitute. BRICs have been trying to substitute for some of them and have made some nonzero progress but theyre still far, far away from stuff like a reserve currency.
Yeah you need a global navy that can assure the safe passage of thousands of ships daily. Now, how do you ensure that said navy will protect your interests? Nothing is free.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#96This is just objectively false. My friend is a freelance copy writer and live in the freelance world. It is 100% replacing writing jobs, editing jobs, and design jobs.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#97Have any of these economists ever tried to scrape by as an entry-level graphic designer/illustrator? Apparently not, since the sort of specific work which one used to find for this has all but vanished --- every AI-generated image one sees represents an instance where someone who might have contracted for an image did not (ditto for stock images, but that's a different conversation).
I don't know. Even with these tools, I don't want to be doing this work.
I'd still hire an entry level graphic designer. I would just expect them to use these tools and 2x-5x their output. That's the only changing I'm sensing.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#98An LLM wouldn't intentionally confuse "didn't" with "isn't"
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#99I'm generally an AI skeptic, but it seems awfully early to make this call. Aside from the obvious frontline support, artist, junior coder etc, a whole bunch of white collar "pay me for advice on X" jobs (dietician, financial advice, tax agent, etc), where the advice follows set patterns only mildly tailored for the recipient, seem to be severely at risk. Example: I recently used Gemini for some tax advice that would…
Similairly, while not perfect I use AI to help redesign my landscaping by uploading a picture of my yard and having it come up with different options.
Also took a picture of my tire while at the garage and asked it if I really needed new tires or not.
Took a picture of my sprinkler box and had it figure out what was going on.
Potentially all situations where I would’ve paid (or paid more than I already was) a local laborer for that advice. Or at a minimum spent much more time googling for the info.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#100November 30th, 2022 is when ChatGPT burst into the world stage and upended what people thought AI was capable of doing. It’s been less than three years since then. The technology is still imperfect but improving at an exponential rate.
I know it’s replaced marketing content writers in startups. I know it has augmented development in startups and reduced hiring needs.
The effects as it gains capability will be mass unemployment.