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Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

theregister.com

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Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#71

Post by Rebuff5007 »

thatjoeoverthr wrote: post #15

My primary worry since the start has been not that it would "replace workers", but that it can destroy value of entire sectors. Think of resume-sending. Once both sides are automated, the practice is actually superfluous. The concept of "posting" and "applying" to jobs has to go. So any infrastructure supporting it has to go. At no point did it successfully "do a job", but the injury to the signal to noise ratio wipe…

Im not sure this is a great example... yes the infrastructure of posting and applying to jobs has to go, but the cost of recruitment in this world would actually be much higher... you likely need more people and more resources to recruit a single employee.

In other words, there is a lot more spam in the world. Efficiencies in hiring that implicitly existed until today may no longer exist because anyone and their mother can generate a professional-looking cover letter or personal web page or w/e.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#72

Post by begueradj »

solfox wrote: post #67

Extrapolating from my current experience with AI-assisted work: AI just makes work more meaningful. My output has increased 10x, allowing me to focus on ideas and impact rather than repetitive tasks. Now apply that to entire industries and whole divisions of labor: manual data entry, customer support triage, etc. Will people be out of those jobs? Most certainly. But it gives all of us a chance to level up—to focus on…

What about technical debts related to the generated code?

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#73

Post by belter »

thatjoeoverthr wrote: post #15

My primary worry since the start has been not that it would "replace workers", but that it can destroy value of entire sectors. Think of resume-sending. Once both sides are automated, the practice is actually superfluous. The concept of "posting" and "applying" to jobs has to go. So any infrastructure supporting it has to go. At no point did it successfully "do a job", but the injury to the signal to noise ratio wipe…

I had similar thoughts, but then remembered companies still burn billions on Google Ads, sure that humans...and not bots...click them, and thinking that in 2025 most people browse without ad-blockers.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#74

Post by InDubioProRubio »

thehappypm wrote: post #22
thatjoeoverthr wrote: post #15

My primary worry since the start has been not that it would "replace workers", but that it can destroy value of entire sectors. Think of resume-sending. Once both sides are automated, the practice is actually superfluous. The concept of "posting" and "applying" to jobs has to go. So any infrastructure supporting it has to go. At no point did it successfully "do a job", but the injury to the signal to noise ratio wipe…

Are you sure suggesting google search is in decline? The latest Google earnings call suggests it’s still growing

The line goes up, democracy is fine, the future will be good. Disregard reality

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#75

Post by bilsbie »

I’m starting to think most jobs are performative. Hiring is just managers wanting more people in the office to celebrate their birthdays.

And any important jobs won’t be replaced because managers are too lazy and risk averse to try AI.

We may never see job displacement from AI. Did you know bank teller jobs actually increased in the decades following the roll out of ATMs.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#76

Post by bilsbie »

thatjoeoverthr wrote: post #15

My primary worry since the start has been not that it would "replace workers", but that it can destroy value of entire sectors. Think of resume-sending. Once both sides are automated, the practice is actually superfluous. The concept of "posting" and "applying" to jobs has to go. So any infrastructure supporting it has to go. At no point did it successfully "do a job", but the injury to the signal to noise ratio wipe…

Making dumb processes dumber to the point of failure is actually a feature.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#77

Post by Cthulhu_ »

solfox wrote: post #67

Extrapolating from my current experience with AI-assisted work: AI just makes work more meaningful. My output has increased 10x, allowing me to focus on ideas and impact rather than repetitive tasks. Now apply that to entire industries and whole divisions of labor: manual data entry, customer support triage, etc. Will people be out of those jobs? Most certainly. But it gives all of us a chance to level up—to focus on…

If it actually works like that, it'll be just like all labor-saving innovations, going back to the loom and printing press and the like; people will lose their job, but it'll be local / individual tragedies, the large scale economic impact will likely be positive.

It'd still suck to lose your job / vocation though, and some of those won't be able to find a new job.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#78

Post by pydry »

cornholio wrote: post #37
pydry wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that the world is fast deglobalizing there will be a flood of factory work being reshored in the next 10 years. There's also going to be a shrinkage in the workforce caused by demographics (not enough kids to replace existing workers). At the same time education costs have been artificially skyrocketed. Personally the only scenario I see mass unemployment happening is under a "Russia-in-the-90s" style collapse…

The world is not deglobalizing, US is.

Much of the globalized system is dependent upon US institutions which currently dont have a substitute.

BRICs have been trying to substitute for some of them and have made some nonzero progress but theyre still far, far away from stuff like a reserve currency.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#79

Post by nirui »

There are few problems in this research, first:

> AI chatbots have had no significant impact on earnings or recorded hours in any occupation

But Generative AI is not just AI chatbots. There are ones that generate sounds/music, ones that generates imagines etc.

Another thing is, the research only looked Denmark, a nation with fairly healthy altitude towards work-life-balance, not a nation that gives proud to people who work their own ass off.

And the research also don't cover the effect of AI generated product: if music or painting can be created by an AI within just 1 minute based on prompt typed in by a 5 year old, then your expected value for "art work" will decrease, and you'll not pay the same price when you're buying from a human artist.

Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists

#80

Post by jvanderbot »

bilsbie wrote: post #75

I’m starting to think most jobs are performative. Hiring is just managers wanting more people in the office to celebrate their birthdays. And any important jobs won’t be replaced because managers are too lazy and risk averse to try AI. We may never see job displacement from AI. Did you know bank teller jobs actually increased in the decades following the roll out of ATMs.

You should take time to learn what those jobs are for. You'd be surprised what it takes to keep a business running past any reasonable level of scale.
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