Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
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Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#2The results are basically what Acemoglu and others have also been saying; e.g.,
https://economics.mit.edu/news/daron-acemoglu-what-do-we-kno...
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#3That person apparently didn't talk to copy writers, photographers, content creators and authors.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#4Right now AI's impact is the equivalent of giving the ancient Egyptians a couple of computer chips. People will eventually figure out what they are, but until then it will only be used as combs, paperweights, pendants etc.
I would say the use cases are only coming into view.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#5'"The adoption of these chatbots has been remarkably fast," Humlum told The Register. "Most workers in the exposed occupations have now adopted these chatbots. Employers are also shifting gears and actively encouraging it. But then when we look at the economic outcomes, it really has not moved the needle."'
So, as of yet, according to these researchers, the main effect is that of a data pump, certain corporations get a deep insight into people's and other corporation's inner life.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#6Link to abstract and the underlying paper "Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects": https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5219933
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#7> We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched employer-employee data in Denmark.
It sounds like they didn't ask those who got laid off.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#8That person apparently didn't talk to copy writers, photographers, content creators and authors.
Or customer service. My last few online store issues have been fully chatbot when they used to be half chatbot for intake and half person.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#9> The economists found for example that "AI chatbots have created new job tasks for 8.4 percent of workers, including some who do not use the tools themselves."
For me, the most interesting takeaway. It's easy to think about a task, break it down into parts, some of which can be automated, and count the savings. But it's more difficult to take into account any secondary consequences from the automation. Sometimes you save nothing because the bottleneck was already something else. Sometimes I guess you end up causing more work down the line by saving a bit of time at an earlier stage.
This can make automation a bit of a tragedy of the commons situation: It would be better for everyone collectively to not automate certain things, but it's better for some individually, so it happens.
Re: Generative AI is not replacing jobs or hurting wages at all, say economists
#10All the jobs (11) they looked at are at least medium level complexity and task delegating. They are the ones giving out time-consuming, low level jobs to cheap labour (assistants etc.) . They can save time and money by directly doing it using AI assistants instead of waiting to have an assistant available.
I am 100% convinced that Ai will and already has destroyed lots of Jobs. We will likely encounter world order disrupting changes in the coming decades when computer get another 1000 times faster and powerful in the coming 10 years.
The jobs described might get lost (obsolete or replaced) as well in the longer term if AI gets better than them. For example just now another article was mentioned in HN: "Gen Z grads say their college degrees were a waste of time and money as AI infiltrates the workplace" which would make teachers obsolete.