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I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

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Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#131

> In technology, AI is currently the new big hype. Before AI, it was "The Cloud", which unfortunately has still not settled, but are now also being interwoven with AI. Cloud computing is a multi-billion dollar industry and it underpins many of the largest internet companies out there. I fail to see how that's hype.

> I fail to see how that's hype.

Server management, data center and related business existed ages ago. What's hype is this cloud? People are made to believe that cloud is not a server or servers.

It's an enhancement sure, but not something completely new or different.

> it underpins many of the largest internet companies out there

And most of them would be fine without it. Rent some racks. Run some servers. That's exactly why it's hype.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#132
The amount of AI boosters and defenders wading in here to bash anyone with a less-than-glowing perspective of the technology is...disappointing. If the technology is truly as revolutionary as you proclaim it to be, then why are you here defending it instead of changing the world with it, as you claim it can? Stop trying to convince detractors with empty arguments, and show us the actual results you claim to have.

> Hype is always bad.

As someone who actually has to implement stuff and support it thereafter, rather than just bolt it onto my resume and ride the hypetrain to equityville, I wholeheartedly agree with OP's core message here. After web2.0 devolved into walled gardens, closed APIs, and gargantuan surveillance apparatuses designed to serve advertisements in a more precise way than actual cruise missiles, I became soured on the very field I am also fiercely passionate about (IT).

The modern technology field is exclusively hype-oriented. There's something new every year you simply must adopt and become an expert in, or you'll lose your job. The ROI is irrelevant (namely because it rarely exists for most organizations in the early adopter phase, if ever), the functionality is irrelevant, the use case is especially irrelevant. It's "new", it's shiny, and you simply must have it to be a "modern" business.

Hype is meant to be a direct replacement for objectivity. It warps math and statistics to justify its necessity (like those cloud migration calculators every vendor likes to point to, in order to justify a wholesale migration off your present estate), the salesfolk strong-arm your leadership into adoption regardless of the advice of their internal architects and engineers, and C-Suites can recite dozens of brands in the Gartner "Leader" quadrant for any given technology while simultaneously having no clue what that technology actually does or is used for. It's all hype.

And an economy built on the hype-cycle has very real, immediate consequences for the average person. It raises energy rates (https://www.usatoday.com/story/business/energy-resource/2025...) and takes water from communities not provisioned for such large scale industrial use (https://www.11alive.com/article/news/investigations/11alive-...), both of which harm locals while the companies skirt by without paying for their fair share of consumption (https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/extracting-profits-from-the-pub...). That doesn't even get into the grifts involved with IP, copyright, or elimination of well-paying jobs (https://green.spacedino.net/the-final-grift/), or the boom-bust cycles that often saddle consumers and taxpayers with the steep losses (both monetary and jobs) incurred once the early investors have sailed off into the sunset with their cartoonishly-large sacks of money and a new superyacht to show for their efforts.

The most immediate and pressing concern for the AI hype is the squandering of finite resources (fresh water, land, and energy chief among them) to train and operate these models on a highly speculative assumption that this revolution in AI will finally be the one that brings humanity into the future, cures all disease, and enables us all to live a life of leisure (rather than just the offensively rich) while waiting for immortality to arrive so we can explore the cosmos. To make this po-faced argument in the face of the present climate disaster demonstrates a complete lack of basic situational awareness, undermining any sort of credibility they may have with anyone who can consider the interactions of two separate systems; we can literally only pursue AI or ameliorate climate change right now with our current capacities in energy, water, and rare earths, and of those two only the latter is actually, demonstrably solved and merely requires global implementation. It demonstrates a selfish mindset of self-preservation (your career in AI) over the protection and support of the whole, and it's all just hype.

I'm not opposed to new technologies. Containers are a game changer, Kubernetes is improving its usability (in baby steps), composable infrastructure through code is a godsend, and the consumption-based models of public cloud providers have made hosting your own place on the internet cheaper than ever before. We've had some great innovations in these past ten years, almost all of which have been completely overshadowed by the perpetual hype train around get-rich investment schemes (crypto, blockchain, NFTs, AI). The hype is the problem, which is what the author was getting at.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#133
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Would not the author have claimed at the time that those technologies were also "hype"? What consistent principle does the author use (a priori) to separate "useful facts" from "hype"? Are you saying someone hyped ... databases? In the same way as AI is hyped today? This is a tweet from Sam Altman, dated April 18 2025: https://x.com/sama/status/1913320105804730518 Whence I quote: i think this is gonna be more like…

> Who, in databases, has claimed that "in the next 10, 15 years we can actually have a real crack at solving all disease"? I doubt anyone claimed 10-15 years specifically, but it does actually seem like a pretty reasonable claim that without databases progress will be a snails pace and with databases it will be more of a horses trot. I imagine the human body requires a fair amount of data to be organised to analyse a…

I think you're only reinforcing the contrast. Yes databases are massivly useful and have been self evidently so for decades; and yet, none of the current outlandish AI claims were ever made about them. VCs weren't running around 30 or 40 years ago claiming that SQL would cure disease and usher in a utopia.

Yes LLMs are useful and might become vastly more useful, but the hype:value ratio is currently insane. Technologies that have produced like 9 orders of magnitude more value to date have never recieved the hype that LLMs are getting.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#134
I tend to agree with the author, but I think the real problem with hype is the opportunity cost. Somewhere along the way we bought into this idea that "the promise of X" is worth more than "the reality of X".

The longer the hype goes on - which is to say the longer it takes to demonstrate the hype is actually reality - the more people become more heavily invested in it.

If the hype never materialises, you basically build a larger and larger black swan when the crash arrives. The people who win are the few who got out early enough, and everyone else who ignored the hype.

If the hype does eventuate, the number of people you're now competing with in a new market is proportional to the length of time it took to eventuate, because for all those people that were onboard, some of them would enter the space in competition, not just as consumers. Again, the only outsized winners are those who got out early enough. The rest are now just working BAU. Like everyone else who ignored the hype.

In both cases, you're just as good or better off ignoring the hype because the chances of you winning big are tiny (unless you're a billionaire, but in that case you were already winning anyway).

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#135
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who, in databases, has claimed that "in the next 10, 15 years we can actually have a real crack at solving all disease"? I doubt anyone claimed 10-15 years specifically, but it does actually seem like a pretty reasonable claim that without databases progress will be a snails pace and with databases it will be more of a horses trot. I imagine the human body requires a fair amount of data to be organised to analyse a…

> but it does actually seem like a pretty reasonable claim that without databases progress will be a snails pace and with databases it will be more of a horses trot. This isn't what anyone is saying

Fair point; let me put it this way:

Database hype was relatively muted and databases made a massive impact on our ability to cure diseases. AI hype is wildly higher and there is a reasonable chance it will lead to the curing of all diseases - it is going to have a much bigger impact than databases did.

The 10-15 year timeframe is obviously impossible for logistic reasons if nothing else - but the end goal is plausible and the direction we need to head in next as a society is clear. As unreasonable claims go it is unobjectionable and I'd rather be standing with Hassabis in the push to end disease than with naysayers worried that we won't do it as quickly as an uninformed optimist expects.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#136
post #17

What a shallow, negative post. "Hype" is tautologically bad. Being negative and "above the hype" makes you sound smart, but this post adds nothing to the discussion and is just as fuzzy as the hype it criticizes. > It is a real shame that some of the most beneficial tools ever invented, such as computers, modern databases, data centers, etc. exist in an industry that has become so obsessed with hype and trends that i…

>> Would not the author have claimed at the time that those technologies were also "hype"? What consistent principle does the author use (a priori) to separate "useful facts" from "hype"? Are you saying someone hyped ... databases? In the same way as AI is hyped today? This is a tweet from Sam Altman, dated April 18 2025: https://x.com/sama/status/1913320105804730518 Whence I quote: i think this is gonna be more like…

> Are you saying someone hyped ... databases? In the same way as AI is hyped today?

Nah, but they hyped Clippy (Office Assistant). Oh wait... maybe that's "AI" back in the days...

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're taking a sliver of truth as though it dismantles their entire argument. The point was, nobody was _claiming_ databases would cure all diseases. That's the argument around the hype of AI here.

Maybe it will cure all diseases, I don't know. Hard to put an honest "I don't know" in a box, isn't it? I am actually having a blast seeing the hooks for many kinds of arguments and counter-arguments.

It will not

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#138

This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian. While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to the tune of trillions of dollars, the impulse to dismiss this as 90% hype (as the author does) is insane. We're only three years into this, and we have: - LLMs with grad student-level competency in everything - Multimodality with complex understanding of photo…

Pretty much all your claims are false, in my experience:

- LLMs do not have grad student-level competency in anything; they often make elementary mistakes in very basic reasoning.

- Image generators produce spooky pictures with garbled text

- Song generators produce nothing remarkable

- LLM code generation is still sloppy and prone to many blindspots

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#139
post #17

What a shallow, negative post. "Hype" is tautologically bad. Being negative and "above the hype" makes you sound smart, but this post adds nothing to the discussion and is just as fuzzy as the hype it criticizes. > It is a real shame that some of the most beneficial tools ever invented, such as computers, modern databases, data centers, etc. exist in an industry that has become so obsessed with hype and trends that i…

>> Would not the author have claimed at the time that those technologies were also "hype"? What consistent principle does the author use (a priori) to separate "useful facts" from "hype"? Are you saying someone hyped ... databases? In the same way as AI is hyped today? This is a tweet from Sam Altman, dated April 18 2025: https://x.com/sama/status/1913320105804730518 Whence I quote: i think this is gonna be more like…

I guess OP hated it when Bill Gates said "personal computers have become the most empowering tool we've ever created."

Or Vint Cerf, "The Internet is the most powerful tool we have for creating a more open and connected world."

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#140
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It feels a bit like LLMs rely a lot on _us_ to be useful. Which is a big point to the author's article about how companies are trimming off staff for AI.

> how companies are trimming off staff for AI But they're not. That's just the excuse. The real truth is somewhere along pandemic over hire and bad / unstable economy.

Also attempts to influence investors/stock-price.

https://newrepublic.com/article/178812/big-tech-loves-lay-of...

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