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I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

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Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#31

Post by eulgro »

jackphilson wrote: post #10
asdfman123 wrote: post #5

There's three types of people w.r.t hype: smart people who resist hype, smart people who want to profit off of it, and dumb people who like it. The first type of person already agrees with you. The second type knows but doesn't care. The third isn't going to read this article.

Fourth type: smart people who like hype because hype is fun and having fun is good.

That's the third type actually. But for some reason GP decided to qualify each type as either smart or dumb. Here's put better: there's 3 types of people: those who resist hype, those who profit off of it, and those who enjoy it.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#32

Post by Uehreka »

mcdeltat wrote: post #18
wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

5 years after Dijkstra’s algorithm was invented, could non-tech people look back and see a huge impact on their everyday lives? No.

Of the things in your list, WiFi is the closest to rising to this level, but even WiFi can’t claim to be as big of a deal as the Internet (unless you’re being extremely cute).

Your list is all A- and B-Tier stuff. Definitely important, but not on the level of like, the personal computer. LLMs are likely on the S-Tier with the other things GP mentioned. Within a month of its release ChatGPT had 100 million users. Everyone in my life can tell me a way they’ve been affected by LLMs.

We can argue about whether LLMs are/will be good for humanity. We cannot argue about whether they’re a big deal, they are undeniable.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#33

Post by alganet »

Zambyte wrote: post #23
alganet wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like LLMs, I am rooting for them. They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time. There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

They've been around for years now. Obviously not as long as the others, but years nonetheless. What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future? The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.

> What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future?

The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball.

It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#34

Post by mcdeltat »

wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #25
mcdeltat wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

Its a matter of opinion who cares what I think - if your list includes those things as fundamental changes that redefined society and technology then that's valid. All I am saying is that LLMs are amongst the most revolutionary changes that break new ground and completely change the world - in my personal opinion.

Yeah I guess my point was there's a lot of opinion involved, especially at the moment. Which can play into the hype cycle. Full disclaimer I am an LLM semi-doubter so of course my opinion skews in that direction. We should see what the future evidence shows for the value of LLMs. Part of what the article touched on is historically the evidence often doesn't back up the hype, hence their disappointment.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#35

Post by SecretDreams »

mcdeltat wrote: post #18
wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

You could replace LLMs with Excel. Shit, even today, people are probably just using LLMs to populate excel sheets for consumption later lol.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#36

Post by el_benhameen »

eulgro wrote: post #31
jackphilson wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fourth type: smart people who like hype because hype is fun and having fun is good.

That's the third type actually. But for some reason GP decided to qualify each type as either smart or dumb. Here's put better: there's 3 types of people: those who resist hype, those who profit off of it, and those who enjoy it.

I imagine that the people who profit off of it enjoy it too, though? So perhaps we have a “hype enjoyers” superset that includes “profiteers” and “suckers”, but then we need “neutrals” or something to describe those who enjoy it without making or losing money. And then from there …

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#38

Post by SecretDreams »

alganet wrote: post #19
Zambyte wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because you don't like LLMs doesn't make them not revolutionary with regards to how people use computers.

I like LLMs, I am rooting for them. They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time. There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

> A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

So you're saying we need more datacenters ~ Jensen Huang, probably

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#39

Post by shikon7 »

rileymat2 wrote: post #28
dlivingston wrote: post #22

This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian. While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to the tune of trillions of dollars, the impulse to dismiss this as 90% hype (as the author does) is insane. We're only three years into this, and we have: - LLMs with grad student-level competency in everything - Multimodality with complex understanding of photo…

Why would we assume linear growth in capabilities and not a logarithmic growth rate? It seems time and time again, it gets harder and harder to make progress. I think back to using Dragon Natural Dictation in 1998, there seemed to be exponential promise and a ton of excitement in my young mind. But the reality was more logarithmic improvements so it is finally pretty good 25 years later.

Combine an exponential growth in investments (that is inherent to our economy) with a logarithmic return in capabilities, and you get a linear increase in capabilities.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#40

Post by kylecazar »

wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

Agreed, but it's also so very relative.

If nobody was paying attention to what the foundational companies have been doing for the past few years, I'm pretty sure I'd be a wild advocate singing their praises on these and other forums.

But since everyone is extremely into it, I just kind of watch and try to measure my expectations.

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