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I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

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Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#21

Post by [deleted] »

chubot wrote: post #15
wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

If the personal computer counts, do mobile phones count? I would certainly think so, except all those high quality sensors have been hindered by app stores and subpar apps, imo :-( I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media

[deleted]

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#22

Post by dlivingston »

This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian.

While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to the tune of trillions of dollars, the impulse to dismiss this as 90% hype (as the author does) is insane.

We're only three years into this, and we have:

- LLMs with grad student-level competency in everything

- Multimodality with complex understanding of photography and technical documents

- Image generators that can generate high-quality photos, in any style, with just a text description

- Song generators that make pretty decent music and video generators that aren't half bad

- Excellent developer tooling & autocomplete; very competent code generation

This is still early and the foundations are still being laid. Imagine where we'll be in 10 years, assuming even a linear growth rate in capabilities.

Think of what the internet is today, and its permanence in everything, and where it was just 30 years ago.

By all means, resist the hype - but don't go so far in the other direction that your head is in the sand.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#23

Post by Zambyte »

alganet wrote: post #19
Zambyte wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because you don't like LLMs doesn't make them not revolutionary with regards to how people use computers.

I like LLMs, I am rooting for them. They will be revolutionary and join the list once the technology stands the test of time. There you go. A simple test that cannot be rushed by more datacenters.

They've been around for years now. Obviously not as long as the others, but years nonetheless. What makes you think the years so far may not continue into the future?

The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#24

Post by pyfon »

wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

Missing from the list is the daily march of improved silicon performance through 50+ years.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#25

Post by wewewedxfgdf »

mcdeltat wrote: post #18
wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

Pretty arbitrary list, no? You could replace "LLMs" with various technologies that seem important (particularly at the beginning of their existence before their true value is determined). Why not: C, cloud computing, neural networks, Dijkstra's algorithm, WiFi, FFT, etc?

Its a matter of opinion who cares what I think - if your list includes those things as fundamental changes that redefined society and technology then that's valid.

All I am saying is that LLMs are amongst the most revolutionary changes that break new ground and completely change the world - in my personal opinion.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#26

Post by chubot »

chubot wrote: post #15
wewewedxfgdf wrote: post #7

Sure there's plenty of hype. But its justified to some extent at least. LLMs are one of the biggest advances in technology in human history. In computing the big ones are: * creation of computers * personal computers * the Internet and world wide web * LLMs So the hype is at some level entirely warranted - its a revolutionary technology with real impact. As opposed to for example the hype around crypto or NFTs or blo…

If the personal computer counts, do mobile phones count? I would certainly think so, except all those high quality sensors have been hindered by app stores and subpar apps, imo :-( I would like to hear some uplifting stories about creative things people do with their phones, rather than consume media

I almost think deep learning and mobile phones had an analogous and surprising applicability

Deep learning failed to solve self-driving. In 2012 people said self driving would probably be ubiquitous by 2018, and it definitely would be by 2020

Instead we got chat bots in 2022 - that turned out to be the killer app, certainly the most widely adopted one

Likewise, instead of mobile phones being used as an aid in the physical world, they became the world

For example, the media they transmit seems to be how elections are won and lost now. It’s the device by which people form impressions of huge parts of the world

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#27

Post by ninetyninenine »

sqs wrote: post #17

What a shallow, negative post. "Hype" is tautologically bad. Being negative and "above the hype" makes you sound smart, but this post adds nothing to the discussion and is just as fuzzy as the hype it criticizes. > It is a real shame that some of the most beneficial tools ever invented, such as computers, modern databases, data centers, etc. exist in an industry that has become so obsessed with hype and trends that i…

It's one of the stupidest concepts on the face of the earth and tons of people ascribe to it unknowingly: hype = bad.

AI is one of the most revolutionary things to ever happen in the last couple of years. But with enough hype tons of people now think it's complete garbage.

I'm literally shocked how we can spend a couple decades fantasizing and writing stories about this level of AI, only to be bored of it in two years when a rudimentary version of it is finally realized.

What especially pisses me off is the know it all tone, like they knew all along it's garbage and that they're above it all. These people are tools with no opinions other then hype = bad and logic = nonexistent.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#28

Post by rileymat2 »

dlivingston wrote: post #22

This strikes me as curmudgeonly and unnecessarily contrarian. While it's true that investors, entrepreneurs, corporations, etc. have a vested interest in AI to the tune of trillions of dollars, the impulse to dismiss this as 90% hype (as the author does) is insane. We're only three years into this, and we have: - LLMs with grad student-level competency in everything - Multimodality with complex understanding of photo…

Why would we assume linear growth in capabilities and not a logarithmic growth rate? It seems time and time again, it gets harder and harder to make progress.

I think back to using Dragon Natural Dictation in 1998, there seemed to be exponential promise and a ton of excitement in my young mind. But the reality was more logarithmic improvements so it is finally pretty good 25 years later.

Re: I passionately hate hype, especially the AI hype

#30

Post by jackphilson »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #27
sqs wrote: post #17

What a shallow, negative post. "Hype" is tautologically bad. Being negative and "above the hype" makes you sound smart, but this post adds nothing to the discussion and is just as fuzzy as the hype it criticizes. > It is a real shame that some of the most beneficial tools ever invented, such as computers, modern databases, data centers, etc. exist in an industry that has become so obsessed with hype and trends that i…

It's one of the stupidest concepts on the face of the earth and tons of people ascribe to it unknowingly: hype = bad. AI is one of the most revolutionary things to ever happen in the last couple of years. But with enough hype tons of people now think it's complete garbage. I'm literally shocked how we can spend a couple decades fantasizing and writing stories about this level of AI, only to be bored of it in two year…

Don't be mad about their opinions, be grateful for the arbitrage opportunity
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