I've been wanting to build a stock trading bot but my general findings were that stock move direction was largely uncorrelated with news of these sorts. Moves happen, but unfortunately it often happens that really good news can be put out and the stock just crashes.
Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
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Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fascinating. It seemed like the EDGAR API looked too good to be true. Sounds like it was.
From what I gather, there is an "official" EDGAR API that is not operated by SEC but by a company they authorized, costs tens of thousands per year and by some accounts, is not that great. Then you have a bunch of third party providers that offer APIs that return cleaned up SEC filings and charge like few thousand dollars a year. The downside is the latency they add.
Yeah, it's a SCP/SFTP service managed by a consulting company:
https://www.sec.gov/search-filings/public-dissemination-serv...
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#23Well done site. One important nit pick: never use charts that don’t start from 0 on the y axis. I was looking at a stock that had a yoy growth rate reduction of 6% (from 39 to 33 for each respective yoy period), and the chart showed an aggressive down to the right trend line because the y axis started at 33% instead of 0%.
Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zero out your graphs.
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#24I've been wanting to build a stock trading bot but my general findings were that stock move direction was largely uncorrelated with news of these sorts. Moves happen, but unfortunately it often happens that really good news can be put out and the stock just crashes.
I swing trade on the side, and tbh news don't matter - manually all I do is have an opinion on an absurd price range, I do a buy order at the low end, it eventually fills, I set the sell order at the high range, and one day it'll fill. If I want to earn while waiting, I do options.
Automate this maybe ? Don't follow the news because you'll never fully understand the implications: firing half the employees could be good news because it relieves cash stress or bad news because it means no more sells of the company's product. Better to at least just look at the post-news trend and position with it?
I think most people end up with a timing issue: they want to predict time of the change of movement but why don't they just predict the price ? Remove time, and you'll never "lose money" - but your time-value will maybe be less efficient than positioning on an ETF and waiting.
Basically, if one could do a trading robot making profit overall, based on public news, it would already be done, and therefore you would be unable to compete. Flash news, it's already been done. You're like a little cell appearing in an ocean of sharks, the evolution of your competition already outpaced you.
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#25Well done site. One important nit pick: never use charts that don’t start from 0 on the y axis. I was looking at a stock that had a yoy growth rate reduction of 6% (from 39 to 33 for each respective yoy period), and the chart showed an aggressive down to the right trend line because the y axis started at 33% instead of 0%. Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zer…
I disagree with this. Zero is an arbitrary and often useless intersection. A stock worth $300 is going to show meaningless movements at that scale.
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#26sorry i dont understand. isn't this information already available on the SEC website? what does your product do
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#27Well done site. One important nit pick: never use charts that don’t start from 0 on the y axis. I was looking at a stock that had a yoy growth rate reduction of 6% (from 39 to 33 for each respective yoy period), and the chart showed an aggressive down to the right trend line because the y axis started at 33% instead of 0%. Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zer…
I disagree with this. Zero is an arbitrary and often useless intersection. A stock worth $300 is going to show meaningless movements at that scale.
This is correct. GP’s rule should be adhered to for bar charts though. Absolute values there are expected. For line charts continuous (ish) over time, people are usually more interested in relative change in a time period so ok if y axis starts closer to the minimum value of the series in that range.
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#28Well done site. One important nit pick: never use charts that don’t start from 0 on the y axis. I was looking at a stock that had a yoy growth rate reduction of 6% (from 39 to 33 for each respective yoy period), and the chart showed an aggressive down to the right trend line because the y axis started at 33% instead of 0%. Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zer…
I disagree with this. Zero is an arbitrary and often useless intersection. A stock worth $300 is going to show meaningless movements at that scale.
Yeah, I would say the y-axis range on charts should be set at "3-sigma likelihood of observation" thresholds. Not everything that's charted can be framed as sampling from a distribution, but the principle of manually setting chart ranges would nonetheless still apply.
For instance, if we're charting someone's body temperature, we would likely fix our y-axis to 80-110.
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#29Well done site. One important nit pick: never use charts that don’t start from 0 on the y axis. I was looking at a stock that had a yoy growth rate reduction of 6% (from 39 to 33 for each respective yoy period), and the chart showed an aggressive down to the right trend line because the y axis started at 33% instead of 0%. Charts like that show more detail sure, but everyone freaks out in reaction to them. Always zer…
I disagree with this. Zero is an arbitrary and often useless intersection. A stock worth $300 is going to show meaningless movements at that scale.
That’s the exact point?
Re: Show HN: I made a free tool that analyzes SEC filings and posts detailed reports
#30sorry i dont understand. isn't this information already available on the SEC website? what does your product do
The earnings filings are available on SEC. Where the product makes a difference is by analyzing interesting patterns and contextualizing it with different means
e.g. this NVDA earnings report: https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/NVDA/nvidia-revenue-soars-ma...
beyond the headline revenue/EPS miss/beat which is trivial, it correctly identifies a trend of margin compression and charts it. It also identifies the gaming revenue divergence from the datacenter revenues and so on. You can check out pretty much any report and odds are, you'll find things that weren't called out in the earnings release