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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

bloomberg.com

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#131

Post by vbezhenar »

galleywest200 wrote: post #86
throwaway48476 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I am unsure why anyone would want to change the trade imbalance when you are arguably the richest country on earth. You have a trade imbalance because you are rich and can buy everything you want. Nobody in onshoring manufacturing with this level of instability in the finances of this country at this time. Trump changes his mind too often to build billions of dollars worth of factories.

Trade imbalance causes debt. Debt causes payments. As debt grows, payment grow. Eventually it causes default.

It's OK to have trade imbalance for some time. It can't last forever.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#132

Post by est »

dave4420 wrote: post #54
ajross wrote: post #20

Pointed it out in the other thread, but this is a capitulation . China imposed retaliatory tariffs that remain in effect! There are a handful of businesses that do indeed export to China, and the net effect here is that they've all been thrown under the bus. China gets to kill/pick/control them at will now.

How will China react to this, I wonder.

China waits paitiently for the big BOOM of US treasury bond in June.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#133

Post by netsharc »

prng2021 wrote: post #90
jonplackett wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

I keep seeing these explanations of “4D chess”. It’s Donald Trump. He has absolutely no idea what he’s doing when it comes to economic policies. Unless you believe he can see into the future of how other world leaders would react and consistently outsmart everyone else, there’s no 4D chess being played.

I learned that "4D chess" just means, "I see the 3 dimensions, I can't explain what's happening, but I guess they can, because they have that extra dimension.".

At this point it's something like 100D chess, because 99 levels of "Why?" have been explained by "because they're morons" but the defenders keep believing there's an extra dimension...

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#134

Post by Flip-per »

reaperducer wrote: post #82
cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists The strategy is to keep everyone unsure what might come next. It's like in boxing. When you hit your opponent and leave them confused and uncertain what you might do next, you use that to your advantage and keep on hitting. It's how you "win." As if there are any winners here.

He isn't really hitting an opponent though, he is mainly hitting the U.S.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#135

Post by redserk »

jader201 wrote: post #122
perihelions wrote: post #59

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

> a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government Note that this is not an exemption for companies, but an exemption for goods: > A new list of goods to be exempted from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers, and other technology goods, many…

It isn’t really cheap or easy to build a PC or smartphone business with name recognition…

Nor is it cheap or easy to build a company that would likely be able to appeal tariff exemptions…

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#136

Post by joe_guy »

A1vis wrote: post #44

The media coverage seems a bit weird to me. The primary source was released 12 hours ago, but when I did a bit of research 4 hours ago I only saw a few reports from dubious Chinese sources like this: https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1277768.html Then about 2 hours ago all major media outlets were covering it.

You're likely seeing the effect of timezones.

It was announced at 11pm and American news companies didn't feel it urgent enough to report before their usual morning weekend staff's shift.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#137

Post by netsharc »

steveBK123 wrote: post #107
dkrich wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no plan. Talk tough, reverse under pressure, rinse repeat. Anyone surprised must not have watched season one which aired in 2019.

The "smart trumpers" I know have already staked out the entire range of possible outcomes: 1) He is completely restructuring global trade and decoupling us from China which is tough but necessary medicine because our biggest geopolitical adversary cannot be our largest trading partner 2) You can't believe half of what he says, he's all bluster, he's addicted to deals and will sign some fake deals to score a domestic…

Thinking the status quo will return so easily is like Putin pulling out of Ukraine and saying "So we're back to 23rd January (Edit/Correction: February) 2022, right, friends?".

The trust in the US (dollar) hegemony has now been eroded, and will probably continue until a purge of the regime of idiots (not just the oust of one idiot...).

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#138

Post by bitsage »

perihelions wrote: post #59

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

The prevailing school of economic thought in America, until Nixon, is actually what Trump idealizes. Protectionism from outside “threats”, on the basis of security and sufficiency, and a loosely regulated internal market. In comparison, Russia has a lot of regulatory capture and straight up corruption that stifles the internal market.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#139

Post by gbil »

jonplackett wrote: post #60
cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

This assumes that he has more power than the tech companies on the everyday life and I wonder if that is really the case. As I'm not located in the states, I'm very much interested to hear from a US resident if that is really the case.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#140

Post by alabastervlog »

voisin wrote: post #128
cinbun8 wrote: post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

The strategy is to sow fear and uncertainty to drive capital from stocks to government bonds and drive down the bond yield. Bessant is pretty clear about this. Once they get the bond yields down and refinance a lot of the short term debt into longer term debt they free up operating budget. Combine with Elon’s DOGE cutting costs and Lutnick raising some capital from tariffs, and it is a pretty good strategy. I don’t a…

It's not a good short term strategy at all. If that's really the goal, their left and right hands need to have a chat because one of them's going to make the deficit way worse, so if the other's goal is to "free up operating budget" by reducing debt service they really ought to get on the same page, because anything "freed up" is going to be eaten by the other bullshit they're doing.

Besides, this is a wildly expensive way to go about it. The harm to receipts from the economic uncertainty will blow a hole in the federal budget and leave states reeling (to say nothing of the "other hand" making cuts at the IRS, which will also be a net cost)

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