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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#121
post #88

Slightly off-topic, but is the result of the USA tariff "trade-war" mean that we get to trade at a discount with China in Europe? What I mean is, since it's cheaper for China to trade with us in Europe now, does that mean we gain some bargaining power?

One danger is that all the cheap Chinese crap will be redirected at Europe. It does have to upside of cheaper goods for Europe overall, which is fine for everything we don't make and which is overall adding value. The risk is that we also get all cheap plastic junk, unless EU regulations can keep it out environmental concerns.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#122

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

> a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government

Note that this is not an exemption for companies, but an exemption for goods:

> A new list of goods to be exempted from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers, and other technology goods, many of which are assembled in China.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#123
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the only explanation that has made sense to me so far. And it makes even more sense based on these exemptions. https://www.instagram.com/share/_jW_V1hwM This is Senator Chris Murphy explaining it’s not economic policy, it’s an attempt to blackmail corporations into submission by making a deal with him in return for sanctions relief. Keep an eye out for what Apple and nvidia might have agreed to give.

Which didn't really work since what exactly are US tech companies giving Trump in exchange for eliminating tariffs? And are only large corporations expected to play? I import shopping bags from Chinese manufacturers from my store, like millions of other small businesses do. What exactly are we supposed to offer Trump?

> And are only large corporations expected to play? I import shopping bags from Chinese manufacturers from my store, like millions of other small businesses do. What exactly are we supposed to offer Trump?

You'll eventually be buying them, for more than you pay now but less than the imported price, from a large US company that bribed whoever Dear Leader is at the time, for exemptions.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#125
There are valid reasons for tariffs:

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/when-are-tariffs-good

Especially when it comes to certain areas of the economy:

> Democratic countries’ economies are mainly set up as free market economies with redistribution, because this is what maximizes living standards in peacetime. In a free market economy, if a foreign country wants to sell you cheap cars, you let them do it, and you allocate your own productive resources to something more profitable instead. If China is willing to sell you brand-new electric vehicles for $10,000, why should you turn them down? Just make B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps, sell them for a high profit margin, and drive a Chinese car.

> Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself.

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now

> China has rapidly established itself as the world’s dominant shipbuilding power, marginalizing the United States and its allies in a strategically important industry. In addition to building massive numbers of commercial ships, many Chinese shipyards also produce warships for the country’s rapidly growing navy. As part of its “military-civil fusion” strategy, China is tapping into the dual-use resources of its commercial shipbuilding empire to support its ongoing naval modernization

* https://www.csis.org/analysis/ship-wars-confronting-chinas-d...

But none of the current "reasons"—which may simply be rationalizations / retcons by underlings for one man's fickle will—really make much sense:

* https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-...

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#126
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How will China react to this, I wonder.

The horrifying thing is that they don't have to. They hold all the cards now. They can drop their new trade barriers at will. Maybe they'll ask for concessions. Maybe they'll leave them in place to kill off troublesome competitors. Maybe they'll coerce the affected companies into selling to Chinese-owned interests at a steep discount. Maybe they'll just take a bunch of bribes. This is how a trade war looks. And we're…

> They hold all the cards now

What do you mean "now?" With the amount of trade imbalance they had the ability to simply block exports at any time. It perhaps only works once but it's a very powerful lever.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#127

This reads to me as "we're doubling-down on 145%+ tariffs for everyone else". This is getting frighteningly close to a Russian-style economy. As in, a handful of powerful, connected "insiders" will be allowed to operate businesses, and will dominate... while everyone else gets wiped out, by acts of government. The furthest system possible from the free-market paradigm that built the American economy as it stands toda…

This reeks "pay to play" very typical for banana republics.

Donations to presidential inauguration fund to get access to the president was already tradition in the US. Trump government just exploits it without shame.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#128
post #30

From an outsider’s perspective, it’s difficult to discern any coherent U.S. strategy—assuming one even exists. One day it’s a 145% tariff on China. The next, it’s “Well, it’s still 145%, but Apple and Nvidia are exempted because their stock prices might take a hit.” Then comes a 90-day pause, adding to the confusion. It’s not clear whether Jamieson Greer is actually steering this, or if any of it was thoroughly thoug…

The strategy is to sow fear and uncertainty to drive capital from stocks to government bonds and drive down the bond yield. Bessant is pretty clear about this. Once they get the bond yields down and refinance a lot of the short term debt into longer term debt they free up operating budget. Combine with Elon’s DOGE cutting costs and Lutnick raising some capital from tariffs, and it is a pretty good strategy. I don’t agree with Trump’s policies generally nor am I American, but this is a good short term strategy.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#129

It's so painful watching this administration be forced to react to their preventable mistakes in-real-time with no repercussions. One thing is throwing and seeing what sticks, but at the seat of the presidency, it seems like such an antipattern for leadership. And yet, the support is unwavering. It's exhausting.

oh, they'll be repercussions. We, as a nation, will be paying for this for years and years to come.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#130
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m British so not that knowledgeable about us politics beyond the big players. How well known is Murphy? I’d never heard of him until I saw this video but he seems very impressive and much more electable than Biden or harris.

Murphy isn't well known.

He's getting more well known pretty fast, over all this. His explainer videos of what's going on and why it's so dangerous are often kinda boring and basic if you're a politics nerd–but that's great, because we don't need to be told, it's the folks who aren't politics nerds who need to be educated on this stuff.
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