Who lost money during this deal? Or generally who indirectly paid these lucky gamblers?
Everyone else, indirectly. So other investors who weren’t in on it, pension funds, John Doe in his retirement home.
$70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
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Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#142As a foreigner I cannot comment on this, else I will be rejected at the airport by the ICE.
That's called freedom my friends.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#143Who lost money during this deal? Or generally who indirectly paid these lucky gamblers?
The people holding the ETF and selling the option. If they had not sold the option, they would have benefited from the value rising, now they instead got (collectively) $2.5M.
If the price had stayed flat or dropped, they would of course still have the $2.5M.
The precision makes it look a lot like a crime, as trading on information that's not publicly available is illegal.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes you are misreading because options have a contract size of 100. So you can't buy "one option", only a contract of 100 options at minimum. Which means 80 cents x 100 = 80 bucks per contract. Multiply by 30,000 and you get =~ $2.5 million. And it's bullshit that you can reliably make money of such low probability options. Even if you do, you never put $2.5 million on something with a huge probability of ending in a…
> And it's bullshit that you can reliably make money of such low probability options. Even if you do, you never put $2.5 million on something with a huge probability of ending in a complete loss, these deep out of the money options are essentially lottery tickets. Nassim Taleb: "I was effectively short volatility. [...] I would have been harmed by small movements. I was set up to be harmed by small movement and gain…
Doesn't that mean he was long volatility?
Taleb's point seems more to be that he saw a mispricing and traded on it one day, rather than anything profound regarding option pricing, unless I am missing something. Anyway, it has little to do with what's being said in the article.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#145The stock market needs to just be deleted. It’s the insider trading scam machine of the rich class. The whole goal of the stock market is to come up with information that people don’t generally have (insider trading) either from research, or secret info, so you can dupe everyone else’s money.
When they say stock market returns 7% on average, it's >7% for the insiders/manipulators and <7% for the regular Joe.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#146> We don’t know who placed the trades. We don’t know what they knew. Actually, “we”, collectively, do know, because the SEC maintains an “XKEYSCORE for equities” called CAT. If there was interest, the government could know exactly who placed these trades. But the call (options) are coming from inside the house.
The prosecutors dont need any spy tool to check who did the trade (at least officially). They can simply ask to receive the records / logs.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
No economic system is functional without a bunch of compromises, and capitalism needs strong regulations as a check to keep it from turning absolutely rotten. We're witnessing the removal of all of the guardrails, traffic signals, road maintenance crews. The highway patrols have been replaced by organized teams of highwaymen. It'll get a lot worse before it gets better.
> It'll get a lot worse before it gets better. Importantly, there's no guarantee it's actually going to get better. We like to pretend that human existence has some trajectory towards "justice" or "prosperity". I don't think that impulse does us justice. Stalin/Lenin could have won. Hitler could have won, Napoleon could have conquered and held. It could just get worse.
Lenin did win.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#148you don't even need insider information to make this trade (although he still might have tipped people off personally)
he literally told everyone to do it
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1143082727259...
and you might have felt especially confident if you recalled him doing the exact same thing in 2018
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oppression and corruption is expensive. Systems based on them are not going to be competitive in the long run.
That may be the very long run. Taking it strictly, Russia never had real democracy. And they are trying hard to export that model.
Define "real democracy"
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#150Who lost money during this deal? Or generally who indirectly paid these lucky gamblers?
The people holding the ETF and selling the option. If they had not sold the option, they would have benefited from the value rising, now they instead got (collectively) $2.5M. If the price had stayed flat or dropped, they would of course still have the $2.5M. The precision makes it look a lot like a crime, as trading on information that's not publicly available is illegal.
This option was OTM so they also (presumably) profited from selling. Just a capped profit