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$70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

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Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#22
post #8

> We don’t know who placed the trades. We don’t know what they knew. Actually, “we”, collectively, do know, because the SEC maintains an “XKEYSCORE for equities” called CAT. If there was interest, the government could know exactly who placed these trades. But the call (options) are coming from inside the house.

What would determine whether the SEC will investigate for insider trading? I would expect them to be shielded from executive pressure.

The president nominates the SEC chair, and can fire him.

This explains how, written just before Trump assumed power:

While he can't force Gensler to step down as a commissioner at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, he can name a new interim SEC chair as soon as he's inaugurated on Jan. 20. He can also nominate a new commissioner to the Senate, which has to confirm the pick.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/11/07/heres-how-quickly...

And Gensler resigned as Chair as soon as Jan 20th:

https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025-29

Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#24
post #8

> We don’t know who placed the trades. We don’t know what they knew. Actually, “we”, collectively, do know, because the SEC maintains an “XKEYSCORE for equities” called CAT. If there was interest, the government could know exactly who placed these trades. But the call (options) are coming from inside the house.

What would determine whether the SEC will investigate for insider trading? I would expect them to be shielded from executive pressure.

In this administration they will be fired for cases Trump doesnt like. Who would protect their independence, Congress? The house members will not oppose any trump policy unless the US is in a depression due to his action

Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#26

> We don’t know who placed the trades. We don’t know what they knew. Actually, “we”, collectively, do know, because the SEC maintains an “XKEYSCORE for equities” called CAT. If there was interest, the government could know exactly who placed these trades. But the call (options) are coming from inside the house.

No economic system is functional without a bunch of compromises, and capitalism needs strong regulations as a check to keep it from turning absolutely rotten.

We're witnessing the removal of all of the guardrails, traffic signals, road maintenance crews. The highway patrols have been replaced by organized teams of highwaymen.

It'll get a lot worse before it gets better.

Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#27
What's surprising about all this is how quickly, easily and cheaply the republic was dismantled and how little opposition there was from people in power.

This culminated in Trump v. United States [1] where unelected partisans simply invented presidential immunity completely out of thin air. That means there are absolutely no possible legal repercussions for any of this. None. And even if there were, the agencies in charge of enforcing it have either been gutted or they've been subverted by putting a sycophantic lackey in charge.

This is the new kleptocracy we live in. Nobody is coming to save us. The supposed political opposition (ie the Democratic Party) is nothing more than feckless controlled opposition who are more interested in defending US imperialism than they are in winning elections.

Things are only going to get worse.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States

Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#28
Overall the argument by the author is very convincing and well put. One part I don’t fully agree with is

> If the trades hadn’t worked out, the losses would have been swift and total. Zero-day options don’t forgive bad timing. The entire $2.5 million could have evaporated by the close of trading. Even with SPY shares, any unexpected reversal would have meant millions in losses.

This has exactly been Taleb’s strategy. Buy option where the writeoff is small when wrong and the payoff huge when correct. As described in the post, the ratio was 1 to 25. Also it was likely that the market would go through huge shifts because the policy is so unpredictable.

So it is not impossible that someone figured that it would be possible to just buy these calls for the whole month. As long as one was a hit, the trade would not make a loss. And given the volatility, at least one would be a hit in this month. These short option bets are truly not such strange ehm options in these volatile times.

So I would like some data about whether similar options were bought on other days in similar volumes.

Having said that, I do find the evidence very strong and it’s reasonable to assume that this was insider trading. I personally suspect someone at JPM or Ackman. They said they “convinced” Trump so maybe Trump said in a meeting that it would probably happen and they immediately bought the calls.

Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money

#29

The stock market needs to just be deleted. It’s the insider trading scam machine of the rich class. The whole goal of the stock market is to come up with information that people don’t generally have (insider trading) either from research, or secret info, so you can dupe everyone else’s money.

Delete along with publicly traded companies, or what’s the plan?
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