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Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

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Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#601

Post by CobrastanJorji »

layer8 wrote: post #520

The 10% apparently also apply to Canada and Mexico now, which they didn’t before: > In a strange turn of events, the president seems to have added another 10 percent tariff to Canada and Mexico. Asked earlier if the 10 percent tariff extended to those countries, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that it did. And a White House official clarified for me just now that that was the case. Previously, Canada and…

Idiots, all. This feels like the sort of mistake I'd make. As in, me, myself, without a team of people planning and reviewing who could comfortably doublecheck when they thought I was getting something a little wrong in my orders. Which suggests to me that this is being done by one or two guys who do not have such a team. Which is insane.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#602

Post by rvnx »

mk89 wrote: post #364
StormChaser_5 wrote: post #86

It's not like the tariffs are gone. It's still 10% for everyone but China. That only seems small in comparison to what was being proposed before. I wonder will EU and others wait out 90 days while negotiating or match the 10% in kind

If USA keeps 10% tariffs for everyone equally, why should we interfere? Serious question. I believe that Trump is shaking things off, but his goal is to introduce a fixed "tariff" like a soft VAT. He is just testing (and profiting with $$$$$) what happens when you do things like 30% there, 24% there, etc. But his long term goal is a fixed tax. In that context, who are we to judge them? We also have VAT on imports.

It's not a fixed tax where there is the same rate everywhere: when you check the tariff table, you can see that there is a different rate for each item (e.g. 9.4% for Cotton Jeans) and then it says in Chapter 99 that you pay "9.4% + xxx%" where xxx is the special rate for the country.

So it's xx% that goes on top of a rate defined by the type of the item.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#603

Post by [deleted] »

layer8 wrote: post #520

The 10% apparently also apply to Canada and Mexico now, which they didn’t before: > In a strange turn of events, the president seems to have added another 10 percent tariff to Canada and Mexico. Asked earlier if the 10 percent tariff extended to those countries, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that it did. And a White House official clarified for me just now that that was the case. Previously, Canada and…

[deleted]

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#604

Post by digianarchist »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

The T-Bill auction today went off without issue and that was before this announcement.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-bond-auction-today...

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#605

Post by blitzar »

sschueller wrote: post #569
matwood wrote: post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But then something flipped. The bond market is always the adult in the room. The UK PM lasted like 44 days when the bond market pushed her out [1]. In this case, the flip was that all the chaos led to people leaving behind the USD completely. Trumps view of the US/World is ~30+ years out of date. There are other stable places to put money now where it used to only be USD. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/uk-prim…

The cabbage outlasted her... https://x.com/jaayjayAT/status/1908793907976040839?t=aP60h4w...

It was lettuce, an iceberg lettuce, the fastest wilting lettuce money can buy.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#606

Post by hayst4ck »

magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

Incompetence is way more dangerous than people realize.

These tariffs are China's Four Pests campaign. Mao, a very trump like figure, decided to protect Chinese crops by destroying sparrows that were picking at them. Killing sparrows killed a predator of insects which did more damage to crops. This coupled with reality denying policies and ignoring experts led to one of the most devastating famines the world has ever experienced.

Hand waiving away this policy that denies reality and hurts America as a rational plan that went wrong is absolutely dangerous. Killing sparrows was "rational" in the same way these tariffs are. Authoritarians believe in power over reason. They do not like submitting to the authority of those who have studied problems because it is an attack on their own supremacy, so they fail to predict second order effects, which were likely obvious.

The damage this administration is doing to trust will be felt for generations. An agreement with America will have no value. No world leader will care what we say, they will only look at what we do. They will see power we have not as potentially being used for their own defense, but as a potential attack on their own sovereignty and they will wish to see us weakened so that they can spend less resources trying to determine our intentions.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#607

Post by magicloop »

antognini wrote: post #558
Animats wrote: post #315

Possibly because lawsuits challenging the power of the President to impose tariffs under the Emergency Economic Powers Act are underway.[1] GOP support for Congress taking back control of tariffs is building.[2] At some point, Congress or the courts will take his toys away. [1] https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariffs-hit-lawsuit-group-his... [2] https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5236142-congress-tariff-...

I've seen relatively little discussion about these lawsuits, but I do think there is a pretty good chance that SCOTUS will rule these tariffs unconstitutional. (It's certainly more likely than Congress rescinding the powers they've ceded to the presidency.) Constitutionally, the power to set tariffs resides with the Legislative branch, not the Executive branch. Congress has delegated some authority to set tariffs und…

It is a sound analysis but I think there are other non-legal factors at play.

If the president tries to do X, then the lawyers block X, then in political game theory the president "wins" in the eyes of the electorate because the president can argue "my plan was perfect, the execution failed due to the opposition, so I am not accountable to what has now happened".

The left might want to see a disaster play out to capitalize in the mid-term elections, laying the accountability directly on the president. The right might not have freedom of action because they fear a well-funded challenger for their seat.

In am interested in other people's opinions and ideas in this area. I agree it is too little discussed and analyzed. Please share your insights!

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#608

Post by greatpatton »

UncleMeat wrote: post #485
magicloop wrote: post #397

"It’s the T-bills wot dun it." That’s my read on why the U.S. just paused the global tariff hike to 10%. From the beginning, I’ve believed the executive branch's real goal was to push down the yield on the 10-year Treasury. Why? Because Uncle Sam has to refinance a mountain of debt this year, and the cost of that depends heavily on Treasury yields — especially the 10-year. That’s the rate that sets the tone for every…

This makes some sense... but they didn't pause the tariffs. There's still a 10% tariff on everybody (including on top of Mexico and Canada, who were previously exempted from the tariffs announced last week) and the tariff on China continues to rise to preposterous proportions.

exactly and I think it's shocking that everyone is just repeating lies without putting them in context.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#609

Post by 0cf8612b2e1e »

ackbar03 wrote: post #22
carabiner wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought VOO and AMZN yesterday. First time buying an individual stock since pandemic. Kicking myself for not buying more. Still waiting a week to possibly buy more if there's another shock, but if the market's up, I'll buy less.

That's stock speculation for you, everything you do is wrong in retrospect

Feels equally plausible that there would have been an across the board increase in tariffs just to look tough. There is no logical analysis of the current situation.

Re: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries

#610

Post by Sgt_Apone »

layer8 wrote: post #520

The 10% apparently also apply to Canada and Mexico now, which they didn’t before: > In a strange turn of events, the president seems to have added another 10 percent tariff to Canada and Mexico. Asked earlier if the 10 percent tariff extended to those countries, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that it did. And a White House official clarified for me just now that that was the case. Previously, Canada and…

Seems they reversed course on that. Or, they don’t know what they’re doing.

> It's been a confusing day.

> As Verity said, it turns out Canada and Mexico are not getting a new 10 per cent tariff after all.

> The White House reversed its earlier announcement in a new statement just now. Here's the bottom line: No new developments for Canada and Mexico today.

> That means there are still worldwide 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum, on some auto parts in North America, and on some goods traded within North America outside the rules of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade (CUSMA).

> The bottom line here: Trump is starting an economic war on China, and U.S. allies are all taking some friendly fire. But a large swath of Canadian trade is spared.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/livestory/trump-pauses-most-gl...

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